McLeish the Villain

Looking at the McLeish-Villa-Birmingham love triangle from 400 miles north...

What's the problem?
Villa fans (or at least some of the more outspoken ones) appear to be mortally offended by the idea of appointing the manager of their local rivals. Whilst it's hardly Rangers-Celtic territory in terms of animosity between the sets of fans, bear in mind that earlier this season there were ugly scenes at the end of a Carling Cup match between the sides. Meanwhile, Birmingham City are claiming that McLeish resigned and jumped off their sinking ship simply to try to facilitate a smoother move to Villa Park.

Could Villa do better?
We already know that big Eck was not their first choice...or their second...or their third...Rafa Benitez apparently decided it wasn't for him, whilst Roberto Martinez couldn't be tempted away from his bosom buddie Dave Whelan and perennial relegation battles at Wigan. Meanwhile, overtures towards Steve McClaren went down about as well as a hot dog vendor at a vegan summer camp; it seems that English fans remain unconvinced that men who use umbrellas can also be capable football managers, though Dutch side Twente, whom he guided to the Eredivisie title, might disagree (conversely, Wolfsburg would back the umbrella theory wholeheartedly).

The bottom line is that, for all the money splashed on Darren Bent in January, owner Randy Lerner's pockets are no longer as deep as they used to be, and Villa's stock is not what it was 18 months ago. The supporters do appear to be fairly realistic about that; it's not as if they expect Jose Mourinho to walk into the dugout. McLeish might well be the best of what was available - though technically he wasn't available...

Is it a good move for McLeish?
My gut feeling is that he didn't have a bright future at Birmingham - investment from owner Carson Yeung was nowhere near what he had claimed it would be two years ago, and in fact there have been several articles suggesting the club have some significant financial trouble looming on the horizon. Meanwhile a club statement post-relegation stated "The club can confirm that manager Alex McLeish's job is safe but that the board will expect him to lead the side back to the Premier League in the 2011-12 season"...which roughly means "If we don't start the season well then he'll be sacked". The sale of the better players, such as goalie Ben Foster and centre-backs Roger Johnson and Scott Dann, seems inevitable, with the subsequent funds raised unlikely to be available to strengthen the squad.

So he didn't have much job security as it was, to the point where it is rumoured he might accuse City of constructive dismissal; whether he has any more security now is open to debate.

Is he actually a decent manager?
McLeish's trademark is organizing average sides to compete toe-to-toe with much better teams - evidence for this includes his spell as Hibs manager, his Champions League run in 2005-06 with Rangers, and both last season's mid-table finish and this year's Carling Cup triumph with Birmingham. Don't forget Scotland's unbelievable win in Paris either; his tactical setup for that match was pretty much perfect.

There are two obvious concerns about him. The first is the insipid style of play that his Birmingham side played, showing about as much passion for adventure as an agoraphobia sufferer. No doubt the Scot would argue this was a necessity, especially away from home, in order to deal with stronger opponents. The second issue is the fact that he appears to have a huge problem turning a losing team around when results go against him - his final season at Rangers was, domestically, a catastrophe, whilst he appeared incapable of righting the wagon when Birmingham's wheels came off so spectacularly after their Carling Cup win.

What are his chances of success?
Not great - if Gerard Houllier was maligned from the moment he walked into the hotseat, and the fans were antagonized by the mere idea of Steve McClaren, then McLeish is up against it from the word go. He needs a good start to get the boo-boys off his back, a task which will be all the harder if Ashley Young and Stewart Downing leave. But if the football is of poor quality and the results aren't forthcoming then he could be the next recipient of the Roy Hodgson Award for Abysmal Managerial appointments.

Do I think he'll succeed?
No. But let's face it, I never get anything right...

L.