2024/25 Scottish League One preview

 Traditionally, my League One season previews follow a standard pattern: the full-time teams near the top, the well-run part-time teams in the middle and part-time teams that seem one step up from a pub side at the bottom.

Except this time around the part-time teams seem to be the professional outfits, whereas the full-time sides...well, let's segue neatly onto the subject of  INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE, who are back in the seaside leagues for the first time this century, and my God it has been quite the journey. Making predictions about League One this season is somewhat complicated by not knowing what's going to happen next with the biggest mob the Highlands has seen since the Jacobites assembled at Culloden. The squad consists of some veterans who are under contract and they can't get rid of, a bunch of kids who'll be in mid-table Highland League lineups within two years, and the manager's son, who wasn't good enough to get a game for Forfar last year. And the prospective takeover has more red flags than a Soviet Union military parade. Fan-bloody-tastic. Maybe the new money will bring in lots of reinforcements. More likely, there is no new money and a points deduction in the coming months...if the club still manages to exist.

Now let's avert our eyes from this car crash and remember there are nine other clubs in this division. Two others are full-time but operating such restricted budgets that this hardly seems to give them the advantage one might expect.

It certainly feels like COVE RANGERS have scaled back the ambition that took them to the Championship two seasons ago and saw them go full-time last year. The loss of top scorer Rumarn Burrell will hit them hard and it will be asking a lot of Grady McGrath to step up from the Highland League and fill the gap. Otherwise Declan Glass (back for a third spell, and permanently this time) joins Fraser Fyvie and Connor Scully in a strong midfield while defender Ryan Harrington joins from the Welsh League. At the time of writing Cove have won only five league matches in 2024 - two against the hapless Edinburgh City - and whilst I don't like reading much into the League Cup that 5-0 gubbing at home to Spartans set off a hell of a lot of alarm bells. Paul Hartley is surely on a shoogly peg already.

There's more optimism in Dumfries. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH actually flirted with a relegation playoff spot at times last year but have replaced Marvin Bartley with Peter Murphy, a manager who has quietly down really well on limited resources for years and has earned the chance to take over a full-time squad. They seem to have given him a wee bit to work with too, given the arrival of twelve new players including ex-Rangers starlet Kai Kennedy, veteran keeper Ross Stewart and utility man Brennan Dickerson from Oldham. They could do with another forward otherwise they'll be dependent on Leighton McIntosh for goals, but they should certainly be stronger than last year.

Murphy's old club ANNAN ATHLETIC did a phenomenal job to stay up last season, but they've lost their talismanic manager and replaced him with Wullie Gibson, who himself previously flopped as boss in Dumfries. Forty next month, Gibson will still do a job himself at right-back and he's managed to bring in Paul McGowan and Josh Todd as extra experience in midfield as well but Matty Douglas, Dom Docherty and Benjamin Luissint were all poached by their old coach. If Aidan Smith and Tommy Goss both manage to get into double figures again then they could yet survive, but the odds are longer this time around.

In theory, DUMBARTON are likely to be at the wrong end of the table if only because they came up via the playoffs. Manager Stevie Farrell has generally been seen as an underachiever, with his three seasons at the club having comprised a relegation and then two promotion playoff appearances with a squad that was probably stronger than the results they were getting. Still, they've kept their core together and signing Matthew Shiels (back after leaving in January) and Mohamed Niang from Cove will do them good. Expect a few loan signings before the end of August to give the team a boost though.

The other newly promoted side are STENHOUSEMUIR, who were unstoppable mid-season before somewhat limping over the line. Gary Naysmith has mostly stuck with the squad that won League Two, which means plenty of experience in the form of keeper Darren Jamieson, centre-back Gregor Buchanan and midfield duo Kyle Jacobs and Nat Wedderburn. One suspects they will also reinforce in the coming weeks.

ALLOA ATHLETIC were the strongest of the part-time sides last season and really seemed to kick on after Andy Graham took charge. The Wasps' main issue will be the loss of brilliant loan players Ethan Sutherland, Taylor Steven and Bobby Wales, which so far is only offset by the arrival of full-back Calum Waters from Morton. It may be hard for them to repeat last year's third place finish but they might also not get a better opportunity than this to get back into the Championship.

Ditto MONTROSE who also fell short in the promotion playoffs but who continue to punch well above their weight under Stewart Petrie; it feels like Petrie still has the nucleus of the squad that he won League Two in 2018, but he does a great job of renewing small parts of it every summer. Sean Dillon (41) and Michael Gardyne (38) are still seemingly going strong and the front two of Kane Hester and Blair Lyons both got into double-figures last season. Every time I write a League One preview I suggest the Gable Endies are due to regress a bit and up to now I've always been wrong...

Their local derbies with ARBROATH are back this year after the Red Lichties' stay in the Championship finally finished on the back of an horrendous run of form. Their win at Bonnyrigg in their last League Cup game was only their second since mid-December in all competitions. Despite that, and despite supporters' concerns, Jim McIntyre remains in charge. He's done well to convince Callum Gallagher to lead his attack and Keith Watson to marshal the defence. This should be more the level of guys like Innes Murray and Craig Slater as well. But the knives will be out if they have a slow start.

Bonus points to KELTY HEARTS for signing two new keepers this summer called Adams and Adamson. Michael Tidser has quietly done a lot with a little there, even though every offseason seems to require him to rebuild most of his squad; on this occasion first choice goalie Kyle Gourlay left because of his day job, Jason Thomson has retired and midfielder Reece Lyon moved to QOS. Ex-Hearts (the big ones) youth defender Callum Flatman has stood out in their League Cup games, while they did well to get Brody Paterson back permanently to boost their backline as well. Does Scott Allan have anything left in the tank? With top scorer Alfie Bavidge back at Aberdeen they'll need another loan forward, Queen's Park's Scott Williamson, to hit the ground running.

So my predicted table - based on the assumption that Caley Thistle are heading inexorably for catastrophe...

1. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

2. ALLOA ATHLETIC

3. ARBROATH

4. MONTROSE

5. KELTY HEARTS

6. COVE RANGERS

7. STENHOUSEMUIR

8. DUMBARTON

9. ANNAN ATHLETIC

10. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE

2024/25 Scottish League Two preview

In the absence of one clear heavily-bankrolled favourite, trying to predict League Two has been a bit of a mug's game in recent years. Luckily, I happen to be a mug.

I work from three tenets here; firstly, a good (or terrible) manager makes a hell of a difference; secondly, good recruitment makes a hell of a difference; and thirdly, the League Cup results are a lousy predictor (Forfar Athletic have burned me too often on this point).

I'm not in a position to judge whether the maverick Michael McIndoe is a good or bad manager going by the absolute shambles he inherited at EDINBURGH CITY last season, but the fact that he has recruited an entirely new squad that mostly consists of their peers' cast-offs, some kids and a few Lowland League players is not hugely reassuring. Back-to-back relegations do happen - Brechin City are a recent example - and the Citizens are certainly likely to have a rough start. If they do so, the question is whether they can find the resources to strengthen mid-season and save themselves...

...like CLYDE did last year following the appointment of Ian McCall. A combination of a bit more cash and the lure of playing for the former Ayr and Partick Thistle coach have turned Clyde from a club that looked doomed to the Lowland League in January to many folks' title favourites this time around. An attack of Kyle Connell, Lee Connelly (Connell and Connelly - a commentator's nightmare) and Jordan Allan belongs a division higher, as do new full-backs Jordan Houston and Tommy Robson. They're not good enough to stroll this league but they are definitely good enough to win it.

Talking of impressive managerial appointments, lower league legend Uncle Fester Dick Campbell rocked up in Methil in the spring and that alone makes EAST FIFE contenders. They seemed to be punching well below their weight last season and Campbell's nous plus defensive reinforcements Andy Munro and Reis Peggie should make them very competitive, particularly with Nathan Austin and veteran Alan Trouten up front. A couple of good loan signings - a trademark of Campbell's time at Arbroath - would put them over the top.

THE SPARTANS - don't forget the 'The' - came this close to promotion last time out - pipped in the playoff final by Dumbarton - and so should be in the mix again even after losing talented midfielder Rhys Armstrong to Airdrie. They'll look to ex-Peterhead man Hamish Ritchie to replace his creativity. With Callum Booth and Paul Watson in defence and James Craigen and Danny Denholm in midfield they don't lack experience, but another glut of goals from Blair Henderson would help their chances.

PETERHEAD were also in the playoffs and are mostly looking to run it back this year with a similar squad. The departures of Ritchie, Conor O'Keefe and Joe McKee mean a much-changed midfield though, and surely Rory McAllister can't go on forever? At the moment they seem to be treading water a bit.

Their fellow ex-Highland Leaguers ELGIN CITY were another team who hit the panic button early enough last season to survive, and so far manager Allan Hale has impressed far more than I expected for someone who was poached from Huntly. Cove loanees Mark Gallagher and Dajon Golding spearheaded their recovery and signing the latter on a permanent deal is a big boost. Ex-ICT midfielder Lewis Hyde will do all right at this level too. They'll certainly be hoping to avoid a relegation battle this time around.

So too will BONNYRIGG ROSE, though such optimism is more likely to be misplaced. Calum Elliot's arrival in the dugout led to enough of a short-term bounce that they survived in May but he favours a more possession-based style that might be too much to ask of a League Two side, particularly one that lacks resources compared to some of the others. Elliot knows the Lowland League well, but we'll see whether many of his signings from that tier can make the step up. The only recognisable name is 35 year old Kallum Higginbotham, who has decided to take one last crack at the SPFL.

Of course, it was STRANRAER who prevailed in the Pyramid Playoff, and it's mildly surprising that they've stuck by boss Scott Agnew after that close shave. He's certainly refreshed the squad, and the arrivals of defender Adam Cummins and midfielders Tomas Brindley and Mark Russell particularly stand out. You'd think the only way is up, but one would assume Agnew is on a short leash.

I expected a lot more of FORFAR ATHLETIC the last couple of seasons because of Ray McKinnon's previous CV but they've been stuck in mid-table and been dull as ditchwater to boot. But McKinnon's still there and will be looking for ex-Alloa youngster Nathan Cannon to solve their problem in front of goal. Winger Ross MacLean might add a little more flair, but they still look a lot stronger at the back than at the front.

And lastly we have STIRLING ALBION, not least because I find them the hardest side of all to judge; they slumped to relegation via the League One playoffs last season and sacked Darren Young afterward; his replacement Alan Maybury has already brought in twelve new faces. They shouldn't be short of goals with Ally Roy joining Dale Carrick and Dale Hilson while I'd fancy Derek Gaston might be the best keeper in this division.  and it's good to see defender Sam Denham return to the league after a year out with a serious injury.

So here's my predicted table:

1. CLYDE

2. STIRLING ALBION

3. EAST FIFE

4. THE SPARTANS

5. PETERHEAD

6. FORFAR ATHLETIC

7. ELGIN CITY

8. STRANRAER

9. BONNYRIGG ROSE

10. EDINBURGH CITY

Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.