2023/24 Scottish Premiership preview

The Premiership increasingly feels like three separate leagues due to the vast financial disparities...so that's how I'm going to treat it for this season's preview...

THE OLD FIRM/GLASGOW DERBY (delete as applicable) TIER 

(Finishing outwith the top two, or even less than ten points ahead of third should result in manager and entire squad being hanged, drawn and quartered)

CELTIC: they say you should never go back, but for Brendan Rodgers I think an exception can be made. Celtic can be pretty pleased with how they've replaced Ange. The loss of Jota was a surprise and you'd think they will bring in a replacement at some point. Rodgers says they aren't going to spend £15m-plus on any players, but if that's the case - even when you have the Jota cash and the Champions League moolah - then how do you ever realistically expect it to get any better than just sweeping the domestic scene and getting pumped in the Champions League groups? Should still be stronger than Rangers, I think.

RANGERS: a lot depends on just how good this new forward line of Danilo, Sam Lammers and Cyriel Dessers is. And a lot depends on whether they can find a consistent partner for Connor Goldson in terms of either form or availability (*cough* John Souttar *cough*). Left-back is also a potential issue with Borna Barisic beginning to regress and Ridvan Yilmaz yet to look like a viable long-term replacement. Jack Butland looks like an upgrade in goal at least. There's too many unknowns here to tip them to win the title but if those front three turn out to be gems then it could be pretty close.

THE CONSIDERABLY POORER THAN THE GRUESOME TWOSOME AND CONSIDERABLY RICHER THAN THE REST TIER 

(finishing second should result in a statue for the manager; finishing sixth or lower, or looking at risk of doing so, will result in the sack)

ABERDEEN: Barry Robson looks like a good coach. The recruitment team give the impression they know what they are doing. Now can Aberdeen crack the final part of the code - managing the fixture congestion that will come with a European run? Hearts couldn't pull that off last season and it's not clear the Dons have the numbers yet...especially if Ylber Ramadani leaves. If he stays or is adequately replaced the Ramadani-Clarkson-Shinnie midfield looks like dynamite. Rhys Williams and Slobodan Rubezic (think that first name tells you where his family's political views lay) should adequately replace Ross McCrorie and Liam Scales at the back. and either Or Dadia or Nicky Devlin will at last give them a competent right-wingback. I'm still not sure what the plan on the left is (Jonny Hayes?) but this a starting XI that should fire them to third spot...if they aren't all knackered or injured by Christmas.

HEARTS: The dugout situation - seemingly pretending Frankie McAvoy is in charge until they're knocked out of Europe and they can reveal that Steven Naismith was pulling the strings all along - is a bit farcical. If that doesn't extend to the pitch though Hearts should be stronger than last year, especially if the impending signings of Kenneth Vargas and Kayosuke Tagawa give them enough attacking pace to make up for Josh Ginnelly buggering off. A double pivot of Beni Baningime (back at last from long-term injury) and new signing Calum Nieuwenhof should make their midfield stronger, and you've got Cammy Devlin to snap at heels there too. If McAvaismith can get Kye Rowles and Stephen Kingsley back to their best form and Frankie Kent fills in for long term crock Craig Halkett the defence should be formidable too. And Lawrence Shankland is always going to give you a chance.

HIBERNIAN: Every time you think Hibs might have got it sussed, they do something so utterly Hibsy to embarrass themselves and the nation, such as getting beaten in Andorra. The big story here though should be them paying £700,000 for Dutch striker Dylan Vente, which is the most money they've spent since they signed a dude who is now a member of the Ecuadorian parliament back in 2001. He had better be good. Elie Youan and Martin Boyle should give them crazy pace up top and Dylan Levitt is a good addition in midfield. Heck, they've even got (very necessary) insurance against David Marshall's form falling off a cliff in new keeper JoJo Wallacott. Like the above duo, Hibs have a very good looking first XI, but their bench isn't too shabby either. The question is whether the players - and the manager - can put it together week in, week out, or whether they will just, well, Hibs it up again.

THE DIDDY TIER

(Realistic target is sixth, anything higher is a massive success, but first priority has to always be avoiding relegation)

DUNDEE: No idea what we're going to get here. Newly promoted, with a new manager in Tony Docherty who is a rookie as a boss but who has huge experience as a coach. He's correctly recognised that the squad was nowhere near good enough for the top flight so he's been busy at both ends, bringing in Trevor Carson in goal and Joe Shaughnessy in defence to provide experience, and using loans from down south to bolster numbers (including getting top scorer Zach Robinson back for another year). There are a couple of Mexicans too to add intrigue. The midfield is very young and inexperienced though. If Docherty can mould a solid lineup quickly and get goals from one of his forwards, they should be okay. But if they start slowly I suspect they'll be near the bottom all season.

KILMARNOCK: Were effective but not exactly pretty last season...except for the many occasions where they weren't effective or pretty. Derek McInnes has sensibly looked to revamp the defence - what's his deal with signing loanee defenders? He used loads last season and he's doing it again - with Robbie Deas ready to make the step up and Stuart Findlay's return to Rugby Park a huge boost. It feels like it'll be another season of grinding out results though; of the forwards only Kyle Vassell looks likely to score semi-regularly and McInnes' effusive praise recently for the likes of Marley Watkins and the "really talented" Liam Donnelly says a lot. We can still dream that David Watson continues to develop as the Prestwick Pirlo and helps add a touch of flair but we'll see.

LIVINGSTON: Finished last season really poorly and I just wonder if they are beginning a bit of a downward spiral. As ever David Martindale operates in a different way from everyone else and he's entitled to plenty benefit of the doubt but of their new signings only Mikey Devlin and maybe Mo Sangare improve the team. It feels like they will be in a fair bit of bother if/when Joel Nouble leaves as he will be so difficult to replace. Martindale is also stuck with several players (waves at Esmael Goncalves) that he needs rid of to bring in reinforcements. Could this be the year they stop punching above their weight?

MOTHERWELL: I didn't expect such a resurgence under Stuart Kettlewell, but the Steelmen were terrific in the second half of the season...fuelled by the extraordinary exploits of Kevin Van Veen who is of course now gone. Away too are Max Johnston, Sean Goss and Mikael Mandron, all starters. And now Calum Butcher is out long term. Frankly that defence looks dicey now, though Macedonian Davor Zdravkovski is an intriguing addition to the midfield. Up top, bringing in Theo Bair looks like the weirdest signing of the summer so far but I imagine he's going to be a backup for Jon Obika (good when fit, which isn't often) and fellow new signings Conor Wilkinson and Mika Biereth. I thought the Van Veen money would have allowed Kettlewell to strengthen, but it seems that it's simply paid off the mistakes his predecessors have made. And so there's a risk they may fall behind simply because they seem to be standing still.

ROSS COUNTY: Having been within seconds of being relegated last season it seems reaasonable to assume they will be closer to the bottom than the top. To be honest I expected Uncle Roy to dip into his childrens' inheritance a bit more this summer to bring the squad up to scratch but whilst Alex Iacovitti is the only stalwart to depart they are dependent on Championship stalwarts Scott Allardice and Kyle Turner (and Jay Henderson, so good on loan at ICT last season) stepping up to the top flight. Their midfield, also encompassing Yan Dhanda and Ross Callachan, should be decent. Up front they have lots of options but just how confident are you in a combination of two of Eamonn Brophy, Simon Murray, Alex Samuel and Jordan White?

ST JOHNSTONE: Already in panic mode after a hideous League Cup campaign. Steven MacLean - whose media comments are too reminiscent of Richie Foran for my liking - gutted the squad, which ws the right thing to do, but has struggled badly to bring in new players so far. He'd have probably liked to get rid of more players but inherited a load of jobbers and has-beens inexplicably given long-term deals by Callum Davidson. That is likely to be restricting what he can do just now, but whatever he puts out on the pitch has to be better than the lot that got shellacked 4-0 by Stirling Albion. Dimitar Mitov might be a good goalkeeper. Luke Jephcott might be an okay forward. But even if they live up to those expectations it would be a huge surprise if St Johnstone aren't in another relegation battle. They're certainly my favourites to go down at the time of writing.

ST MIRREN: Were best of this bunch last season and are a reasonable bet to do the same even though the surprisingly decent forward Curtis Main has left and outstanding keeper Trevor Carson has moved on to after some sort of weird fallout with the club. Whether they've replaced Carson adequately with Zach Hemming is another matter, but there are high hopes for attackers Conor McMenamin - the club's most expensive signing for more than 30 years - Mikael Mandron and Stav Nahmani. New centre-back James Bolton seems pretty highly thought of too. And so far they've retained the outstanding Aussie duo of Ryan Strain and Keanu Baccus, as well as all-action midfielder Mark O'Hara.

So my predicted table:

1 CELTIC

2 RANGERS

3 ABERDEEN

4 HIBERNIAN

5 HEARTS

6 ST MIRREN

7 DUNDEE

8 KILMARNOCK

9 ROSS COUNTY

10 MOTHERWELL

11 LIVINGSTON

12 ST JOHNSTONE

And Twitter's take:

1 who cares
2 who cares
3 Aberdeen
4 Hearts
5 Hibs
6 Kilmarnock
7 St Mirren
8 Motherwell
9 Dundee
10 St Johnstone
11 Ross County
12 Livingston
though any of bottom 3 in any order

— Murray Watson (@mdwats) August 3, 2023

St Johnstone relegated.

— Joe90 ⚽ (@specs_joe90) August 3, 2023

Old Firm, Aberdeen, Hibs, Hearts. Then St Mirren or Killie for 6th and the rest to be absolute dugmeat. Could see any of the others going down.

— niall todd (@nialltodd82) August 3, 2023

County to finish between 5th & 8th

— Martin MacLeod (@102mart) August 3, 2023

St. Johnstone bottom, Motherwell 11th unless they sign a half decent striker

— Jack Wilson (@jackwilson14499) August 3, 2023

Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.    

2023/24 Scottish Championship preview

 God, I hate the Scottish Championship. My club have been stuck in this particular circle of hell since 2017 and I'm desperate for us to get out of it. And the more time that passes the more likely it is that my wish will be granted...but with a move downward rather than up. After all there's always someone worse off than you...and it's Falkirk.

The usual script for this league is as follows; one club has a decent financial advantage over all the others, and that club gets promoted. The last couple of seasons, said club has completely failed to run away with the league, eventually grinding out just about enough results to take the title on the last day or the week before that. But still, they've managed promotion and that's all that matters.

So...Dundee United, Hearts, Kilmarnock, Dundee...DUNDEE UNITED? Let's put it bluntly; anything other than a canter back to the Premiership will be an underachievement. Louis Moult and Tony Watt up front. Craig Sibbald and Glenn Middleton (though Goodwin seems unable to get a tune from him) in midfield. Three signings who were amongst the best players in this division last season in Kevin Holt, Liam Grimshaw and Ross Docherty. Declan Gallagher leading the defence. And crucially, anyone but Mark Birighitti in goal. In truth I expect United to grind it out rather than destroy everyone (possibly with a midseason managerial change like when Killie binned Tommy Wright), but they'll definitely go up. Definitely. Won't they?

As for who else could challenge, I think you could make an argument for many - if not all - the other clubs in the division. I'm going to stick my neck out though and tip DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC to follow the example of Queen's Park last year and be a newly promoted side challenging at the top. James McPake - to my surprise after his lousy spell as Dundee manager - has put together a really good side that walked League One last year. So far he has focused on keeping them together, and so they should be very well drilled from the off. The defence should be plenty good enough now that Sam Fisher has been brought back, and I love Chris Hamilton at the base of midfield. A year in the third tier has rejuvenated Craig Wighton - who seemed doomed to be yet another case of unfulfilled potential in Scottish football - and it'll be interesting to see how dangerous he is. I also expect the Pars to be active in the loan market in the next few weeks for further reinforcements that will cement them as a top half side.

There could also be a challenge from the other side of Fife. RAITH ROVERS did a heck of a lot of business early, which has the advantage of getting your new signings lots of time to get up to speed but does mean not having any space left for players that become available late in the window. I do particularly like new keeper Kevin Dabrowski, who certainly won't be a downgrade on the departed Jamie MacDonald. Striker Jack Hamilton has done it at this level before. Josh Mullin still has plenty in the tank (though a 3 year deal for a 31 year old winger seems optimistic) and Euan Murray and Keith Watson will strengthen the defence. As it stands, they certainly have a stronger squad than most.

The million dollar (or the £200,000) question for AYR UNITED is how they will fare without talismanic striker Dipo Akinyemi after he signed for York City. United will hope veteran wide players Aiden McGeady and Jamie Murphy will provide whoever plays up front with lots of ammunition but Lee Bullen needs either new signing Akeem Rose or youngster Fraser Bryden to step up and score regularly...or to use the Akinyemi cash on another striker. Otherwise Bullen has again made some intriguing signings from the English non-leagues - Olly Pendlebury captained England at under 16 level and is still only 21 - and they will hope they can kick on from last season's second place.

As for the rest - well, your guess is as good as mine. QUEEN'S PARK seem a good place to start as they came third last year, but it's all change at Lesser Hampden with Owen Coyle having left and being replaced by Dutchman Robin Veldman. I do like the Spiders' focus on bringing in young players let go from the likes of Southampton (defender Will Tizzard, midfielder Jack Turner) and Brighton (midfielder Jack Spong). At the time of writing though they are still short at right-back and are up front are heavily dependent on Ruari Paton making the step up from lighting up League One with Queen of the South. Again, I'd expect plenty more new faces to come here.

A sensational cup run shouldn't distract from the fact that INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE had their lowest league finish in more than twenty years and they come into this season having lost their best defender, Robbie Deas, and their best midfielder, Scott Allardice, along with their two loanee wingers Jay Henderson and Daniel Mackay. That cup cash is either being saved for a splurge at the end of the window or is being saved to pay bills - either way, signings like Luis Longstaff and Jake Davidson feel like little more than cheap depth. Charlie Gilmour might be a good addition to midfield, mind. The biggest worry is the hole left by Deas that does not look in any way to be adequately filled yet.

GREENOCK MORTON somehow got by last season with the smallest squad in the history of the world (in terms of numbers, not height!) and seem determined to do the same again; I presume it's a budget thing? They will be busy in the next few weeks if only because they need another four bodies just to have a full bench (and only have one keeper). Dougie Imrie is as good a coach as anyone in this league and that is crucial given their financial constraints. Continuing to get performances and goals out of forwards Robbie Muirhead and George Oakley is crucial, while Jack Baird and Robbie Crawford are two of the best players in their positions in the Championship. The big concern at the moment is at right-back, in that they don't actually have one.

AIRDRIE are as intriguing as anyone in this league, given their unusual model where the manager, the assistant manager and one of the coaches are also players. It didn't exactly do them any harm last season, where they were League One's great entertainers, either doing the scudding or being scudded most weeks. Adding Nikolay Todorov and Josh O'Connor to a forward line of Calum Gallagher and Gabby McGill means they should still score plenty of goals, and sticking with the same defence as last season means they should still concede plenty too. So whatever happens, it should be fun.

There may be less of that at PARTICK THISTLE, who came within seconds of an extraordinary promotion via the playoffs and then shortly after admitted huge costcutting was required at a club where wages might not have been paid but for a cup tie against Rangers. They've lost four of their best players - Kevin Holt, Ross Docherty, Kyle Turner and Scott Tiffoney - and even if the immortal Brian Graham continues to s**thouse his way to 15 goals every season it's tough to see them repeating last season's success. It'll be interesting to see how Kris Doolan fills those gaping holes in his lineup; if he can recruit in the summer as well as he coached and motivated in the spring they'll be okay.

And the fact I have left ARBROATH to last is surely a clue as to how I think their season is going to pan out. The group that nearly got them promoted in 2021/22 is ageing and dissipating, and finding good part-time replacements is hard going. Last season's recruitment wasn't great and it's not clear that Dick Campbell has done any better this summer. He really needs to do well in the loan market again if this isn't to be the end of the Red Lichties' glorious run at this level. Of course, it would be typical Campbell and typical Arbroath if they didn't make the naysayers eat their words. 

So the inevitably wrong predicted table looks like this:

1 DUNDEE UNITED

2 DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC

3 RAITH ROVERS

4 AYR UNITED

5 QUEEN'S PARK

6 GREENOCK MORTON

7 INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE

8 PARTICK THISTLE

9 AIRDRIE

10 ARBROATH

And the Twitter view:

Dundee United to go up, but not before a managerial change.

— john moir (@johnmoir87) August 2, 2023

I think Raith rovers have made some signings and will sneak the title, Partick to go up via playoffs

— Auri831 (@peedie831) August 2, 2023

As a Raith fan, I've never felt more optimistic going into a season. There's a real unity on and off the pitch. United should be able to get back up immediately, but if we avoid our usual plague of injuries I think we can do very well.

— Robbie Weir (@rw2711) August 2, 2023

Everyone capable of beating everyone else as usual in the championship. Dundee Utd on paper have a superb squad and should be favourites to win the league.

— John Vincent Kane (@johnvincentkane) August 2, 2023

Raith
Ayr
Dundee United
Queen’s Park
Dunfermline
Airdrie
Morton
Partick thistle
Arbroath
Inverness

— Gary (@gary668484) August 2, 2023

Best of luck predicting this one. Just look at the League cup group stages. Not one of these teams had a st Johnstone-esque calamity of a campaign.
I think utd will eventually gel and win the league.
Also it will be harder than ever for Arbroath to survive.

— Dougie Macpherson (@dougir) August 2, 2023

This is possibly going to the be the first time in a while where I can see the title race going down to the final gameweek with 3 or 4 teams in the running for it. Unless Dundee Utd go and splash a load of cash on players in January to make sure they can push late on

— Scott Fleming (@scottf1996) August 2, 2023

Plays off for Pars, Arbroath bottom, superbly unpredictable other than that!

— David Hamilton (@dwham22) August 2, 2023

Morton are unpredictable rn. We have shockin squad depth but decent players and we're playing good. Would say mid table but I'm biast. We apparently have a couple of players with experience on the way into the squad so we might be fine for squad depth soon

— Aiden McEwan (@freedo9862) August 2, 2023

Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.   

2023/24 Scottish League One Preview

Whereas in League Two the difference in budget between richest and poorest is pretty minimal, League One has four clubs who are full time - Cove Rangers, Falkirk, Hamilton Accies and Queen of the South - and six clubs who savour bloodying their noses regularly. So while I make no apology for my choice of the top four it is quite easy to see it going spectacularly wrong for each of them.

Take FALKIRK, for example. It's like the Bairns have been given a special demotivational plaque by Mr Burns. Surely their fifth straight season in League One will be their last? We shall see. John McGlynn brought in Tom Lang and Brad Spencer from his former club Raith Rovers and they should be more than capable, and given they already boast the likes of Coll Donaldson, Stephen McGinn, Callumn Morrison and Gary Oliver there are no excuses. But then we've said that before...

COVE RANGERS won this division in 2021-22 before stinking up the second half of last season in the Championship. So they've responded by going full-time and giving Paul Hartley - whose record in recruitment at previous clubs was not exactly stellar - the chance to practically sign a new team. With Fraser Fyvie, Paul McGowan, Blair Yule and Connor Scully they can probably boast the best centre midfield in the league and Mitch Megginson can be relied on for goals, but the jury is out on a backline that will mostly be made up of newbies.

Having been a Premiership side as recently as 2021, HAMILTON ACCIES need to arrest the slide...and they might do so after new ownership was followed by an influx of new blood that leaves them with a far stronger team than the one that got relegated from the Championship last season. They've stuck by manager John Rankin despite the drop, but he'll be expected to get a tune out of the likes of Dylan Tait, Euan Henderson and Kevin O'Hara; signing an entirely new defence is not a bad move either but they may take time to gel. Still, it feels like things can't get any worse (famous last words).

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH showed some signs of life after Marvin Bartley became manager and they look to have recruited wisely - particularly getting keeper Murray Johnson and central defender Kyle McClelland on loan from Hibs. Dumfries is the latest stop for Efe Ambrose, who is heading inexorably towards a career climax in 2026 where he becomes a cult hero for an Angus club by scoring a crucial goal with a bullet header in a relegation playoff that saves his club's SPFL status before walking off into the sunset (niche Marvin Andrews reference there). If Bartley can coax Lee Connelly and Gavin Reilly back to their best then they will be dangerous.

Of the part-time clubs, ALLOA ATHLETIC look the strongest, not least because they made the promotion playoffs last season. Brian Rice is an astute coach and continues to get plenty out of veterans Andy Graham (40 in September!) and Conor Sammon (37 in November). Sammon and Luke Donnelly give them a potent threat up top. They have had to replace most of last season's starting backline though and they had a pretty lousy League Cup campaign, so a regression is not that unlikely.

EDINBURGH CITY looked like playoff candidates for most of the season but hit the skids, winning only three of their last sixteen games. Now they've lost all four League Cup group games too. John Robertson and Steven Warnock, arguably their two greatest attacking threats, have moved on, and while a summer takeover by a fan-led consortium has been blamed for Alan Maybury's failure to reinforce much, the bottom line is it is hard to give them the benefit of the doubt right now. Still, the combined creativity of Danny Handling and Innes Murray makes them worth a watch.

It's mental that MONTROSE are in their sixth straight season at this level, and frankly its all down to the awesome management of Stewart Petrie. Last year felt like a step backward though, with a feeling that they had hit their ceiling and Petrie was finding it hard to refresh a settled squad that had done so well for so long. And that feeling has caused them to splash out - with a transfer fee and everything! - to sign League Two goal machine Kane Hester to give them a spark. How far can he and the evergreen Rory MacAllister fire them? We'll see.

By the far the biggest turnover has been at KELTY HEARTS, where Michael Tidser replaced John Potter at the end of last season and set about basically gutting the entire squad; only eight players plus the player-boss himself remain. I'm always wary about how long it takes a team to gel and a lot of the newbies are guys who have blown hot-and-cold at this level in the past. The dream is that Tiwi Daramola, who scored an insane number of goals for Bo'ness Athletic last season, can do it at this level; four in four League Cup games is a good start.

And lastly we come on to the promoted teams, both of whom have largely stuck with the group that got them up. STIRLING ALBION looked like a League One team last season and only needed to tinker; getting Dale Hilson in up front to partner Dale Carrick looks like an astute move. A couple of decent loan signings could make Darren Young's side very competitive very quickly in a division where former League Two champions have a recent history of back-to-back promotions.

It's likely to be a lot harder for ANNAN ATHLETIC. Peter Murphy's side have punched above their weight for years but going up via the playoffs was astonishing. They have a close-knit bunch and crucially, a talented striker in Tommy Goss. But it's a sign of where they are at that they lost one of their starting defenders, Cammy Williamson, to Stranraer. It's hard to look at them and fancy them for anything other than a long campaign.

So here's my inevitably wrong predicted table:

1 FALKIRK

2 HAMILTON ACADEMICAL

3 QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

4 STIRLING ALBION

5 COVE RANGERS

6 ALLOA ATHLETIC

7 MONTROSE

8 EDINBURGH CITY

9 KELTY HEARTS

10 ANNAN ATHLETIC

And the Twitter view:

pic.twitter.com/2zgh8c0oEB

— coz bawz (@corrie_eden) July 31, 2023

Daftly optimistic for the Binos, but Darren Young says he's aiming high so why not? The team is in such a good place these days. We will squeak into the top half.

Falkirk to finally win it.

Alloa, Edinburgh, Annan to struggle.

— Jonathan Savage (@JSavageTweets) July 31, 2023

I'm a Falkirk fan and i think we'll have the same issues as last season based on the signings and League cup games. Too plodding and difficulty breaking teams down if they sit in, plus teams will know to pressure our slack passing around our box.

Worried about Hamilton...

— Paul (@ilostmyself0) July 31, 2023

I reckon this will be between hamilton and cove rangers.

Going for cove top with aberdeens Tony Stewart on loan

Queen of South will be 3rd

— Auri831 (@peedie831) July 31, 2023

Kelty hearts will score plenty goals. Not sure whether it be enough to challenge though?

— Dougie Macpherson (@dougir) July 31, 2023

Falkirk or Hamilton...100%

— Scott McMartin (@ScottyL177) July 31, 2023

Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.