I work from three tenets here; firstly, a good (or terrible) manager makes a hell of a difference; secondly, good recruitment makes a hell of a difference; and thirdly, the League Cup results are a lousy predictor (Forfar Athletic have burned me too often on this point).
I'm not in a position to judge whether the maverick Michael McIndoe is a good or bad manager going by the absolute shambles he inherited at EDINBURGH CITY last season, but the fact that he has recruited an entirely new squad that mostly consists of their peers' cast-offs, some kids and a few Lowland League players is not hugely reassuring. Back-to-back relegations do happen - Brechin City are a recent example - and the Citizens are certainly likely to have a rough start. If they do so, the question is whether they can find the resources to strengthen mid-season and save themselves...
...like CLYDE did last year following the appointment of Ian McCall. A combination of a bit more cash and the lure of playing for the former Ayr and Partick Thistle coach have turned Clyde from a club that looked doomed to the Lowland League in January to many folks' title favourites this time around. An attack of Kyle Connell, Lee Connelly (Connell and Connelly - a commentator's nightmare) and Jordan Allan belongs a division higher, as do new full-backs Jordan Houston and Tommy Robson. They're not good enough to stroll this league but they are definitely good enough to win it.
Talking of impressive managerial appointments, lower league legend Uncle Fester Dick Campbell rocked up in Methil in the spring and that alone makes EAST FIFE contenders. They seemed to be punching well below their weight last season and Campbell's nous plus defensive reinforcements Andy Munro and Reis Peggie should make them very competitive, particularly with Nathan Austin and veteran Alan Trouten up front. A couple of good loan signings - a trademark of Campbell's time at Arbroath - would put them over the top.
THE SPARTANS - don't forget the 'The' - came this close to promotion last time out - pipped in the playoff final by Dumbarton - and so should be in the mix again even after losing talented midfielder Rhys Armstrong to Airdrie. They'll look to ex-Peterhead man Hamish Ritchie to replace his creativity. With Callum Booth and Paul Watson in defence and James Craigen and Danny Denholm in midfield they don't lack experience, but another glut of goals from Blair Henderson would help their chances.
PETERHEAD were also in the playoffs and are mostly looking to run it back this year with a similar squad. The departures of Ritchie, Conor O'Keefe and Joe McKee mean a much-changed midfield though, and surely Rory McAllister can't go on forever? At the moment they seem to be treading water a bit.
Their fellow ex-Highland Leaguers ELGIN CITY were another team who hit the panic button early enough last season to survive, and so far manager Allan Hale has impressed far more than I expected for someone who was poached from Huntly. Cove loanees Mark Gallagher and Dajon Golding spearheaded their recovery and signing the latter on a permanent deal is a big boost. Ex-ICT midfielder Lewis Hyde will do all right at this level too. They'll certainly be hoping to avoid a relegation battle this time around.
So too will BONNYRIGG ROSE, though such optimism is more likely to be misplaced. Calum Elliot's arrival in the dugout led to enough of a short-term bounce that they survived in May but he favours a more possession-based style that might be too much to ask of a League Two side, particularly one that lacks resources compared to some of the others. Elliot knows the Lowland League well, but we'll see whether many of his signings from that tier can make the step up. The only recognisable name is 35 year old Kallum Higginbotham, who has decided to take one last crack at the SPFL.
Of course, it was STRANRAER who prevailed in the Pyramid Playoff, and it's mildly surprising that they've stuck by boss Scott Agnew after that close shave. He's certainly refreshed the squad, and the arrivals of defender Adam Cummins and midfielders Tomas Brindley and Mark Russell particularly stand out. You'd think the only way is up, but one would assume Agnew is on a short leash.
I expected a lot more of FORFAR ATHLETIC the last couple of seasons because of Ray McKinnon's previous CV but they've been stuck in mid-table and been dull as ditchwater to boot. But McKinnon's still there and will be looking for ex-Alloa youngster Nathan Cannon to solve their problem in front of goal. Winger Ross MacLean might add a little more flair, but they still look a lot stronger at the back than at the front.
And lastly we have STIRLING ALBION, not least because I find them the hardest side of all to judge; they slumped to relegation via the League One playoffs last season and sacked Darren Young afterward; his replacement Alan Maybury has already brought in twelve new faces. They shouldn't be short of goals with Ally Roy joining Dale Carrick and Dale Hilson while I'd fancy Derek Gaston might be the best keeper in this division. and it's good to see defender Sam Denham return to the league after a year out with a serious injury.
So here's my predicted table:
1. CLYDE
2. STIRLING ALBION
3. EAST FIFE
4. THE SPARTANS
5. PETERHEAD
6. FORFAR ATHLETIC
7. ELGIN CITY
8. STRANRAER
9. BONNYRIGG ROSE
10. EDINBURGH CITY
Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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