For the first time since 2014, there isn't a club in this division that could be considered a Scottish football heavyweight - yes, I'd still refer to Dundee United as such, even if they are a bit flabby with bingo wings and move slower than a week in jail. There's also not a club like Dundee or Ross County who have significant financial backing from a benevolent millionaire.
So in theory at least the Championship is up for grabs. However Kilmarnock - back at this level for the first time since 1993! - have not messed about and deserve to be described as favourites. Supporters or almost every other side can legitimately dream of having at least an outside shot at the top four though. But they can also brick themselves at the possibility that they could get relegated. It's not unusual for a more established club to have a nightmare of a season and finish bottom. Who might that be this time around?
ARBROATH (2020/21: 7th; 2019/20: 5th; 2018/19: 1st in League One)
Surely the only part-timers in the division can't survive and thrive at this level forever - though you wouldn't dare say that to Dick Campbell's face. The Red Lichties still have that excellent back four, marshalled by Tam O'Brien, and are better at using the loan market than most. They really need one Livingston loanee, Jon Nouble, to replace the goals that were provided in the second half of last season by another Livingston loanee, Jack Hamilton. If not, lack of firepower will give them a real problem, especially since the talismanic Bobby Linn is nearly 36.
AYR UNITED (2020/21: 8th; 2019/20: 4th; 2018/19: 4th)
United didn't really pick up after David Hopkin replaced Mark Kerr in charge and won only two of eleven league games under him. Hopkin has gone back to Morton to try and strengthen the defence, and though neither Markus Fjortoft nor Sean McGinty impressed in Greenock he has lured talented young keeper Aidan McAdams from his former club. They're another team who look dicey up top; with Michael Moffat now 37 they need young striker Marc McKenzie or new signing Tomi Adeloye who has more clubs in his career than he has goals.
DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC (2020/21: 4th; 2019/20: 6th; 2018/19: 7th)
Dunfermline's new German owners seem happy to rely on more traditional recruitment for the moment and on paper it has worked well for them. The addition of Reece Cole and Graham Dorrans should give them a strong midfield and winger Kai Kennedy is a terrific signing on loan from Rangers. With Nikolay Todorov and Craig Wighton as established goal threats and Dom Thomas creating, they will be very dangerous going forward. The defence will miss Euan Murray but it seems reasonable to expect at least one of new signings Rhys Breen and Ross Graham or Lithuanian international Vytas Gaspuitis to step up. New boss Peter Grant should go from a relegation battle at Alloa last year to a promotion battle this time around.
GREENOCK MORTON (2020/21: 9th; 2019/20: 7th; 2018/19: 5th)
Covid has not helped Morton's preparations but with only four new signings it feels like they have a lot of work to do in all areas. At the back Gus MacPherson will need Jack Hamilton to shake off a rotten few years at Dundee, while Alan Lithgow should be an improvement at centre-back. The midfield needs young players like Cameron Blues and Reece Lyon to finally step up, while up front Gary Oliver and Gozie Ugwu work hard but score too few. Robbie Muirhead is the X-factor but shows his ability all too rarely. MacPherson won just one of his twelve league games in charge before the playoffs last season and the jury is out on whether he is yesterday's man.
HAMILTON ACADEMICAL (2020/21: 12th in Premiership; 2019/20: 11th in Premiership; 2018/19: 10th in Premiership)
In some ways it seems laudable that Accies stuck by Brian Rice despite relegation, but in plenty of other ways it seems crazy. In Hakeem Odoffin and David Templeton they have two players who would stroll this division...but Odoffin will surely move on and Templeton is perennially injured. Basically Hamilton are looking to cobble together a promotion challenge with a combination of players who proved out of their depth in the top flight and unproven youngsters. Can Rice really convert them from a mindset of battling to avoid relegation every year to taking the initiative against most opponents?
INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE (2020/21: 5th; 2019/20: 2nd; 2018/19: 3rd)
The suggestion from some bookies that ICT are third favourites seems rather optimistic after watching them defend in the League Cup; at the moment they look very much like a side with a rookie manager (Billy Dodds) and an aged centre-back who needs put out to pasture (Kirk Broadfoot). Maybe it'll all gel, maybe Broadfoot will aid the development of young defenders Robbie Deas and Cameron Harper, and maybe fellow veteran signings Michael Gardyne and Billy Mckay will add quality and nous. Or maybe not. If wingers Tom Walsh (back for a second spell), Anthony McDonald and Aaron Doran can stay fit they should be fun to watch, but it's hard to predict how they'll do until Dodds has had a couple of months to show whether he's up to management or not.
KILMARNOCK (2020/21: 11th in Premiership; 2019/20: 8th in Premiership; 2018/19: 3rd in Premiership)
Just the sixteen new signings as Tommy Wright overhauled the side that shockingly got relegated. It's essentially a new team with only Brandon Haunstrup, Chris Burke and Rory McKenzie from last year's team likely to start. Jason Naismith, Scott Robinson and Liam Polworth look like particularly great additions, while Euan Murray, Fraser Murray and Dan Armstrong proved last year that they can cut it at this level. If Innes Cameron can fulfil his potential - at the moment he looks like he's going to be given an extended chance to do so up front - then it's their title to lose.
PARTICK THISTLE (2020/21: 1st in League One; 2019/20: 10th; 2018/19: 6th)
Ian McCall built a tidy squad to get out of League One and won't be content simply with survival. Brian Graham and Zak Rudden provide a fine combination of experience and youth in attack and Cammy Smith is a terrific addition to the midfield. McCall also signed Ross MacIver and Scott Tiffoney permanently after successful loan spells and if the defence, reinforced by loanee keeper Harry Stone and centre-back Lewis Mayo and permanent addition Kevin Holt, is up to the task then they will be closer to the top than the bottom.
QUEEN OF THE SOUTH (2020/21: 6th; 2019/20: 9th; 2018/19: 9th)
Another summer, another big clearout in Dumfries with only a handful of last season's starters remaining. Like last year Allan Johnston has had to take chances on players from the lower divisions and from down south who are largely unproven; the exception is former Hearts starlet Harry Cochrane. The League Cup group was encouraging with lots of goals from newbies Ally Roy (Airdrie) and Ruari Paton (Stranraer) and Portuguese forward Ruben Junior seems to be a nice chap who loves his mum. But their first Stephen Dobbie-less season since 2016 could be a tough one.
RAITH ROVERS (2020/21: 3rd; 2019/20: 1st in League One; 2018/19: 3rd in League One)
Rovers played some sexy and successful football last season, but can they keep up the forward momentum after losing outstanding midfielder Regan Hendry? Liam Dick should replace Kieran MacDonald at left back and hopefully Christophe Berra still has some legs left. Keeping Lewis Vaughan fit will make a big difference, as will getting the best out of erratic wingers Dario Zanatta and Aidan Connelly. Rovers are another side who do well in the loan market and they've picked up youngsters Kai Fotheringham and Ethan Varion plus Livingston striker Matej Poplatnik this way; they'll all be expected to make a big impact.
And here's my predicted league table:
1. KILMARNOCK
2. DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
3. PARTICK THISTLE
4. RAITH ROVERS
5. HAMILTON ACADEMICAL
6. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
7. AYR UNITED
8. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
9. GREENOCK MORTON
10. ARBROATH
Arbroath fans won't need to be told twice to take a screenshot of this so they can haunt me with it in May 2022...
Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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