ABERDEEN
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"Maybe Aberdeen can get a little bit closer to the Champions than they did last season, and upset them once or twice again. Anything more impressive than that and McInnes really will be immortal."
"Maybe Aberdeen can get a little bit closer to the Champions than they did last season, and upset them once or twice again. Anything more impressive than that and McInnes really will be immortal."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
So how many folk predicted that the Dons would top the league at this point? It's been a terrific first half of the campaign, which of course started with some superb European results. Those may have contributed to a few iffy results at the start of the league campaign, but those problems have been ironed out. Since an unlucky home defeat to Celtic on 9 November, they've won seven straight league games, without conceding a goal.
After a few hiccups, the defence has settled down now that Ash Taylor has found his feet and Mark Reynolds no longer has to cover his mistakes. Up front they've not been short of goals, even though injuries have forced them to use Adam Rooney in a wide area. And they've achieved all this despite missing Russell Anderson, Willo Flood and Barry Robson for long periods. It helps that Jonny Hayes is playing the football of his life, even though he's lined up at left-back, left-wing, right-wing and centre-midfield at various times. Aside from losing to Dundee in the Scottish Cup, all is well in Aberdeen.
Common sense dictates that the Dons will fall behind Celtic as the season goes on...though, if injuries are kept to a minimum and David Goodwillie was to find his goalscoring touch (while hardly a disappointment, the former Scotland international is still yet to rediscover his best form), it could be rather close...
So how many folk predicted that the Dons would top the league at this point? It's been a terrific first half of the campaign, which of course started with some superb European results. Those may have contributed to a few iffy results at the start of the league campaign, but those problems have been ironed out. Since an unlucky home defeat to Celtic on 9 November, they've won seven straight league games, without conceding a goal.
After a few hiccups, the defence has settled down now that Ash Taylor has found his feet and Mark Reynolds no longer has to cover his mistakes. Up front they've not been short of goals, even though injuries have forced them to use Adam Rooney in a wide area. And they've achieved all this despite missing Russell Anderson, Willo Flood and Barry Robson for long periods. It helps that Jonny Hayes is playing the football of his life, even though he's lined up at left-back, left-wing, right-wing and centre-midfield at various times. Aside from losing to Dundee in the Scottish Cup, all is well in Aberdeen.
Common sense dictates that the Dons will fall behind Celtic as the season goes on...though, if injuries are kept to a minimum and David Goodwillie was to find his goalscoring touch (while hardly a disappointment, the former Scotland international is still yet to rediscover his best form), it could be rather close...
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Winger Jeffrey Monakana has already returned to Brighton after his loan spell ended. Whilst Derek McInnes would probably like a natural left-back, Andrew Considine has been solid enough. I wouldn't be surprised if there were no more new faces.
Winger Jeffrey Monakana has already returned to Brighton after his loan spell ended. Whilst Derek McInnes would probably like a natural left-back, Andrew Considine has been solid enough. I wouldn't be surprised if there were no more new faces.
CELTIC
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"If there is still a title race after Christmas, then that suggests that the Norwegian isn't the right man for the job."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
To be fair, Celtic are only one point behind Aberdeen and have a game in hand, but given the difference in resources (the wage budget at Celtic Park is greater than those of all the other Premiership sides put together), that's not good enough. Add in their Champions League embarrassment ("Which side got knocked out of the 2014-15 Champions League twice?" will be a pub quiz question for years to come) and an underwhelming Europa League campaign and it's safe to say that Ronny Deila has not set the heather alight so far.
The slow start could be put down to the players getting used to the new tactics and style implemented by the Norwegian, but that's no longer a legitimate excuse for the lack of coherence so often on display in the final third. Occasionally they have been unplayable, but too often, especially at home, they have struggled to break opponents down - even more so now that John Guidetti's form has hit the skids after a blistering start. Deila's reluctance to use Kris Commons from the start is baffling; whilst Stefan Johansen has been generally excellent, there's no reason why they can't both play together.
Celtic's best players this season have been at the other end of the park. Craig Gordon's performances in goal have been the equal of predecessor Fraser Forster, while Virgil Van Dijk continues to stroll through games even though his mind appears focused on a move to England. Alongside him, loanee Jason Denayer looks far better than a teenager should, and the team has looked far more vulnerable since he got injured and the accident-prone Efe Ambrose was restored to the lineup. And Deila's difficulties with finding attacking width would be a lot worse if Emilio Izaguirre wasn't getting up the left flank so effectively.
Look, you'd still bet your mortgage on Celtic winning the league. But you'd hesitate first.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
The club seem keen to tie up Guidetti for the long-term if possible, as the Swede is a free agent in the summer. Fellow attacker Jo Inge Berget has already left after a woeful spell on loan from Cardiff, but Stefan Scepovic seems unlikely to be loaned out after grabbing a goal or two recently. Could Leigh Griffiths' move to Hibs be back on? The club have been linked to Maccabi Haifa's forward Olarenwaju Kayode and Watford winger Ikechi Anya.
DUNDEE
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"This is a squad built for scrappy rather than silky football. But I don't think that's a bad move. This bunch is good enough to compete on an even keel with the clubs that finished 2013-14 in the bottom six."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
The Dark Blues have gone off the boil rather spectacularly in recent weeks; they've not won a league game since 1st November, a run which has seen them slide out of contention for a top six finish. In the last fortnight, they've picked up only one point from home games with struggling Ross County and St. Mirren; the visit of Motherwell to Dens Park this weekend will be interesting, particularly since Dundee have won there only once in the league all season.
There's not an easy explanation for the current struggles. They've not changed their tactics much, nor have they been struck by an injury crisis. It just seems like too many first team regulars have lost form at exactly the same time. A relatively solid defence has slackened hugely, with Thomas Konrad, dropped last week, the apparent scapegoat. Up front, David Clarkson's goals were bound to dry up eventually, after he scored in his first eight matches for the club, but that's as much down to the service he's getting. After a superb start to the campaign, Gary Harkins has started resembling the disinterested plodder that stole a wage at St. Mirren last season, while Paul McGowan has been off the pace since his absence due to injury which coincidentally occurred at the same time he was charged with assaulting a police officer again. Kevin Thomson and Simon Ferry started the season well but haven't maintained that level of performance either. The big plus has been Greg Stewart, who has had a great season.
Paul Hartley will need to be better than me at identifying the problem if Dundee are to return to their August form. It would take an almighty collapse for them to end up at the bottom of the pile though.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
They've already been fairly busy, doing a loan swap with Hibs which brought in tricky winger Alex Harris in exchange for the pacey Martin Boyle. In a bid to bolster the defence, they've already brought in the Spellcheck-breaking Bulgarian central defender Kostadin Gadzhalov. Reserve keeper and Milo-from-24 lookalike Arvid Schenk will leave when his short-term deal ends. Dundee have a pretty big squad, and might look to move on fringe veterans like midfielder Kevin McBride and striker Peter MacDonald.
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"If there is still a title race after Christmas, then that suggests that the Norwegian isn't the right man for the job."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
To be fair, Celtic are only one point behind Aberdeen and have a game in hand, but given the difference in resources (the wage budget at Celtic Park is greater than those of all the other Premiership sides put together), that's not good enough. Add in their Champions League embarrassment ("Which side got knocked out of the 2014-15 Champions League twice?" will be a pub quiz question for years to come) and an underwhelming Europa League campaign and it's safe to say that Ronny Deila has not set the heather alight so far.
The slow start could be put down to the players getting used to the new tactics and style implemented by the Norwegian, but that's no longer a legitimate excuse for the lack of coherence so often on display in the final third. Occasionally they have been unplayable, but too often, especially at home, they have struggled to break opponents down - even more so now that John Guidetti's form has hit the skids after a blistering start. Deila's reluctance to use Kris Commons from the start is baffling; whilst Stefan Johansen has been generally excellent, there's no reason why they can't both play together.
Celtic's best players this season have been at the other end of the park. Craig Gordon's performances in goal have been the equal of predecessor Fraser Forster, while Virgil Van Dijk continues to stroll through games even though his mind appears focused on a move to England. Alongside him, loanee Jason Denayer looks far better than a teenager should, and the team has looked far more vulnerable since he got injured and the accident-prone Efe Ambrose was restored to the lineup. And Deila's difficulties with finding attacking width would be a lot worse if Emilio Izaguirre wasn't getting up the left flank so effectively.
Look, you'd still bet your mortgage on Celtic winning the league. But you'd hesitate first.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
The club seem keen to tie up Guidetti for the long-term if possible, as the Swede is a free agent in the summer. Fellow attacker Jo Inge Berget has already left after a woeful spell on loan from Cardiff, but Stefan Scepovic seems unlikely to be loaned out after grabbing a goal or two recently. Could Leigh Griffiths' move to Hibs be back on? The club have been linked to Maccabi Haifa's forward Olarenwaju Kayode and Watford winger Ikechi Anya.
DUNDEE
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"This is a squad built for scrappy rather than silky football. But I don't think that's a bad move. This bunch is good enough to compete on an even keel with the clubs that finished 2013-14 in the bottom six."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
The Dark Blues have gone off the boil rather spectacularly in recent weeks; they've not won a league game since 1st November, a run which has seen them slide out of contention for a top six finish. In the last fortnight, they've picked up only one point from home games with struggling Ross County and St. Mirren; the visit of Motherwell to Dens Park this weekend will be interesting, particularly since Dundee have won there only once in the league all season.
There's not an easy explanation for the current struggles. They've not changed their tactics much, nor have they been struck by an injury crisis. It just seems like too many first team regulars have lost form at exactly the same time. A relatively solid defence has slackened hugely, with Thomas Konrad, dropped last week, the apparent scapegoat. Up front, David Clarkson's goals were bound to dry up eventually, after he scored in his first eight matches for the club, but that's as much down to the service he's getting. After a superb start to the campaign, Gary Harkins has started resembling the disinterested plodder that stole a wage at St. Mirren last season, while Paul McGowan has been off the pace since his absence due to injury which coincidentally occurred at the same time he was charged with assaulting a police officer again. Kevin Thomson and Simon Ferry started the season well but haven't maintained that level of performance either. The big plus has been Greg Stewart, who has had a great season.
Paul Hartley will need to be better than me at identifying the problem if Dundee are to return to their August form. It would take an almighty collapse for them to end up at the bottom of the pile though.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
They've already been fairly busy, doing a loan swap with Hibs which brought in tricky winger Alex Harris in exchange for the pacey Martin Boyle. In a bid to bolster the defence, they've already brought in the Spellcheck-breaking Bulgarian central defender Kostadin Gadzhalov. Reserve keeper and Milo-from-24 lookalike Arvid Schenk will leave when his short-term deal ends. Dundee have a pretty big squad, and might look to move on fringe veterans like midfielder Kevin McBride and striker Peter MacDonald.
DUNDEE UNITED
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"Unless one or two of the young players make a big impact, Dundee United won't be quite as fluid as last season."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
Whilst I predicted United to finish third, I did them a disservice by suggesting that they wouldn't be as entertaining. They've scored more league goals than anyone else, while conceding more than any other top six side. They remain bloody good to watch. It helps that Jackie McNamara has indeed been able to get plenty out of his youngsters. Aidan Connolly, Charlie Telfer and Blair Spittal all look like real prospects, and their emergence has given him alternatives when things aren't going well.
Add in a revitalized Chris Erskine, who is back to his very best, and the more established trio of Ryan Dow, Nadir Ciftci and Gary Mackay-Steven, and that's a cracking set of attacking options to have. And that's even before taking into account the lung-busting bursts from deep by Stuart Armstrong, who has been sensational in the past month. The defence is of course left exposed, but Jaroslaw Fojut and Callum Morris have done all right in the centre - even if they are far better in the air than on the deck. They're a lot better off when Paul Paton is sitting in front of them; the Northern Irishman has been arguably United's star man so far this season.
For a while, it seemed like United were more likely to challenge Celtic than Aberdeen, but too often on their travels they have dropped points cheaply; they've won only one of their last six away games. That vulnerability is what will stop them being right in the mix at the finish. But the top three seems a pretty decent bet.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
New signing Simon Murray won't be contributing this season - the young forward will return to Arbroath on loan. McNamara must be happy with what he's got. The club have rejected offers for Mackay-Steven, and it will take a decent bid to prise Armstrong away from them this month.
HAMILTON ACCIES
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"it seems pretty fair to tip Accies for the drop, but then they aren't going to break the bank and defend for their lives just to finish tenth or eleventh. They'll do it their way and be damned."
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"Unless one or two of the young players make a big impact, Dundee United won't be quite as fluid as last season."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
Whilst I predicted United to finish third, I did them a disservice by suggesting that they wouldn't be as entertaining. They've scored more league goals than anyone else, while conceding more than any other top six side. They remain bloody good to watch. It helps that Jackie McNamara has indeed been able to get plenty out of his youngsters. Aidan Connolly, Charlie Telfer and Blair Spittal all look like real prospects, and their emergence has given him alternatives when things aren't going well.
Add in a revitalized Chris Erskine, who is back to his very best, and the more established trio of Ryan Dow, Nadir Ciftci and Gary Mackay-Steven, and that's a cracking set of attacking options to have. And that's even before taking into account the lung-busting bursts from deep by Stuart Armstrong, who has been sensational in the past month. The defence is of course left exposed, but Jaroslaw Fojut and Callum Morris have done all right in the centre - even if they are far better in the air than on the deck. They're a lot better off when Paul Paton is sitting in front of them; the Northern Irishman has been arguably United's star man so far this season.
For a while, it seemed like United were more likely to challenge Celtic than Aberdeen, but too often on their travels they have dropped points cheaply; they've won only one of their last six away games. That vulnerability is what will stop them being right in the mix at the finish. But the top three seems a pretty decent bet.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
New signing Simon Murray won't be contributing this season - the young forward will return to Arbroath on loan. McNamara must be happy with what he's got. The club have rejected offers for Mackay-Steven, and it will take a decent bid to prise Armstrong away from them this month.
HAMILTON ACCIES
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"it seems pretty fair to tip Accies for the drop, but then they aren't going to break the bank and defend for their lives just to finish tenth or eleventh. They'll do it their way and be damned."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
Dammit, I had to rewrite most of this because of Alex Neil's impending move to Norwich. Anyway...hands up anyone who seriously believed that Accies would do this well? Thought not. They've been this season's feelgood story, and deserve to be fourth in the table.
After all, they've won at Celtic and beaten Aberdeen at home. And they've not been short on style. Whilst they are often very direct, there's no shortage of players to quickly support target man Mickael Antoine-Curier, as shown by the impressive goals tallies of Ali Crawford and Tony Andreu; with twelve goals already this season, the Frenchman must be a candidate for Player of the Year. For the most part, their young players have pushed on this season, with full-backs Ziggy Gordon and Stephen Hendrie especially enhancing their reputations. If there is a weakness, it is in the centre of defence, where Martin Canning, Jesus Garcia Tena and Mikey Devlin have had their ups and downs. But that's me being pernickety.
How will Neil's exit affect them? The smart money seems to be on Canning succeeding him in the dugout. The philosophy of giving Academy players their chance will surely continue, but only time will tell if the club can remain at their current heights. Regardless, Hamilton will finish top six this season, though I'm not sure they'll be consistent enough to stay with the teams around them till May.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Depends on Neil's successor, but his replacement will be encouraged to promote youngsters rather than bring in journeymen. Veteran Jason Scotland has been released from his contract. The club may have to brace themselves for an offer for Stephen Hendrie, who has plenty of admirers.
After all, they've won at Celtic and beaten Aberdeen at home. And they've not been short on style. Whilst they are often very direct, there's no shortage of players to quickly support target man Mickael Antoine-Curier, as shown by the impressive goals tallies of Ali Crawford and Tony Andreu; with twelve goals already this season, the Frenchman must be a candidate for Player of the Year. For the most part, their young players have pushed on this season, with full-backs Ziggy Gordon and Stephen Hendrie especially enhancing their reputations. If there is a weakness, it is in the centre of defence, where Martin Canning, Jesus Garcia Tena and Mikey Devlin have had their ups and downs. But that's me being pernickety.
How will Neil's exit affect them? The smart money seems to be on Canning succeeding him in the dugout. The philosophy of giving Academy players their chance will surely continue, but only time will tell if the club can remain at their current heights. Regardless, Hamilton will finish top six this season, though I'm not sure they'll be consistent enough to stay with the teams around them till May.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Depends on Neil's successor, but his replacement will be encouraged to promote youngsters rather than bring in journeymen. Veteran Jason Scotland has been released from his contract. The club may have to brace themselves for an offer for Stephen Hendrie, who has plenty of admirers.
INVERNESS CT
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"If it turns out that John Hughes knows a heck of a lot more about football than I do (and it's certainly possible!) then this could be a very exciting campaign for Caley Thistle. And if he doesn't, they should still be far too good to end up in the lower half of the table."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
Were it not for an awful December, ICT could have been top of the pile; as it is, they lie fifth, only 5 points off top. The club can be pretty happy with their season so far, aside from a meek League Cup defeat at Ibrox. They've deservedly beaten Celtic and Dundee United at home, and continue to do better than a number of teams with higher budgets. A lot of humble pie has been eaten by fans who thought that John Hughes' appointment was the wrong move.
Whilst Hughes continues to preach a passing style, there has been increasing licence to mix up play to break down more stubborn opponents. Moreover, his insistence on keeping the ball on the deck is helping improve a number of his players, with Greg Tansey, Marley Watkins and exciting youngster Ryan Christie all standing out; whilst still lacking a bit of consistency, Christie is the most talented player ever produced by the club, and I'm certain he'll go on to bigger things. ICT do still occasionally come unstuck against teams which have the energy and discipline to press high up the field effectively - Partick Thistle, for example. Too often, the ball will end up at the feet of goalkeeper Dean Brill, who's not as good on the deck as he is a shot-stopper. They've also been guilty of plenty of missed chances; whilst Billy Mckay has been far more effective than his mediocre tally of six goals suggests, he certainly isn't as confident in front of goal as he was a year ago.
But a top half finish should always be considered a success in the Highlands. The biggest concern right now in Inverness is that the likes of Watkins, Billy Mckay, Graeme Shinnie and Josh Meekings will leave in the summer. Might that distraction be detrimental?
Whilst Hughes continues to preach a passing style, there has been increasing licence to mix up play to break down more stubborn opponents. Moreover, his insistence on keeping the ball on the deck is helping improve a number of his players, with Greg Tansey, Marley Watkins and exciting youngster Ryan Christie all standing out; whilst still lacking a bit of consistency, Christie is the most talented player ever produced by the club, and I'm certain he'll go on to bigger things. ICT do still occasionally come unstuck against teams which have the energy and discipline to press high up the field effectively - Partick Thistle, for example. Too often, the ball will end up at the feet of goalkeeper Dean Brill, who's not as good on the deck as he is a shot-stopper. They've also been guilty of plenty of missed chances; whilst Billy Mckay has been far more effective than his mediocre tally of six goals suggests, he certainly isn't as confident in front of goal as he was a year ago.
But a top half finish should always be considered a success in the Highlands. The biggest concern right now in Inverness is that the likes of Watkins, Billy Mckay, Graeme Shinnie and Josh Meekings will leave in the summer. Might that distraction be detrimental?
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Given that dropping a place or two in the table would cost the club a six figure sum, it's unlikely that any offers for players will be worth the club's while. Hughes has stated his intent to bring in a player or two. A new striker is likely, as Ibra Sekajja's short-term deal hasn't been renewed.
Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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