Friday, August 1, 2014

2014-15 Premiership preview - Inverness CT


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PREDICTED LEAGUE FINISH: Sixth


 LAST SEASON: 5th, 57pts

NOTABLE INS:

NOTABLE OUTS: Matthew Cooper (Elgin City), Adam Evans (Bohemians), Joe Gorman (Bray Wanderers), Conor Pepper (Greenock Morton), Ben Greenhalgh

LAST SEASON'S BEST XI (departed players crossed out): Brill, Raven, Warren, Meekings, Shinnie, Foran, Draper, Watkins, Vincent, Doran, Mckay


How far Inverness Caledonian Thistle can go will depend entirely on the whims of their manager.

Make no mistake, this is the most talented squad that the Highlanders have ever assembled.  They have not acquired any new first teamers this summer, but there hasn't been a pressing need to do so.  Last year's bunch were signed up months ago, and there is sufficient depth in almost every position that the club should at the very least fancy a third successive top half finish.  Only up front, where cover for Billy Mckay is badly needed, could they do with an extra body or two.

That's not to say that Mckay is no longer one of the best strikers in the league.  The Ulsterman's goals tailed off in the second half of last season, but that was not so much down to personal ineptitude as to a dramatic dip in the quality of service to him.  For, since February, manager John Hughes has undertaken to overhaul the style of the team, replacing the quick, direct but entertaining attacking thrusts of the Terry Butcher era with an emphasis - nay, an obsession - with passing the opposition to death, a plan that I not-so-affectionately call Yogi-taka.  It did not bear much fruit towards the end of last season; ICT were often remarkably narrow going forward, with the attackers so close together that you could have covered them with a king size duvet.

Meanwhile, the defence did not exactly warm to an embargo on long clearances.  Never have Josh Meekings and Gary Warren, one of the most imperious central defensive duos in the Premiership over the last two years, looked so uncomfortable or vulnerable.  But pre-season has suggested that Hughes has shown zero interest in shelving the plan; perhaps these problems have been ironed out?  Or perhaps not.

Given that Mckay and the outstanding Graeme Shinnie are out of contract next summer, this might be the last chance for Caley Thistle to make hay while the sun shines.  Shinnie came of age in 2013-14, and Hughes simply needs to decide whether he is more effective in his natural left back position, or by adding dynamism to the centre of midfield.  I would rather see him in the former role, where he is massively superior to alternative Carl Tremarco both in defence and in attack and his athleticism and final ball are very difficult to neutralize.

Besides, ICT are not short of options in the middle of the park, even if captain Richie Foran is struggling to overcome a knee injury.  The behemoth Ross Draper can take care of the physical battle, while Hughes has appointed Greg Tansey as his very, very, very poor man's Pirlo.  Tansey has the ability to carve open defences with pinpoint passing and to score the most spectacular goals, yet he does not do either often enough and is prone to dreadful lapses in concentration.  Hughes' dependence on him is rather a risk.

The key to creating the chances for Mckay is to get the ball to the trio supporting him.  Irishman Aaron Doran is often the best source, but looks far less effective coming in from the left flank than from the right, where his ability to create space for an overlapping David Raven brought a lot of joy.   But Hughes often prefers him on the other side, opposite a more natural wide player like Marley Watkins, or an extra central midfielder in James Vincent.  The latter ploy drove supporters barmy last season and was hugely ineffective in the League Cup final.  It would be nice to see Nick Ross fight his way back into the side, but the boss just doesn't seem to rate him.

This all sounds really rather negative, and in contrast to my prediction of a top six finish.  Yet there is so much talent in this squad that there is plenty of cause for optimism.  The brightest light is teenager Ryan Christie, who proved in the Spring that he is probably the most gifted player ever produced by the club.  As remarkable as his technique is his upper body strength and workrate.  He's surely made the position just behind Mckay his own, and if Hughes has got the duo, along with Doran and A.N. Other, to click in the final third, then he will have plenty to crow about.

The bottom line is that, if it turns out that John Hughes knows a heck of a lot more about football than I do (and it's certainly possible!) then this could be a very exciting campaign for Caley Thistle.  And if he doesn't, they should still be far too good to end up in the lower half of the table.


THE SQUAD (players born after 1 January 1993 in italics)
Goalkeepers: Dean Brill, Ryan Esson
Defenders: Danny Devine, Josh Meekings, David Raven, Graeme Shinnie, Carl Tremarco, Gary Warren
Midfielders: Aaron Doran, Ross Draper, Richie Foran, Liam Polworth, Nick Ross, Greg Tansey, James Vincent, Marley Watkins, Danny Williams
Forwards: Ryan Christie, Billy Mckay

THE BEST XI?

football formations

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