KILMARNOCK
**
What I said in pre-season: TENTH. "It's very hard to know how good this Kilmarnock team will be. I fully expect two or three new players to arrive in the next few weeks which may markedly improve the side."
How wrong was I? Kilmarnock's current position - eighth - is about as high as they've managed all season, courtesy of 12 points from 6 matches between the start of December and the start of January; crucially, those 4 wins came against the 4 sides below them in the league. Despite this, Allan Johnston still doesn't seem to know what his best lineup is yet - they've used 27 different outfield players this season, a level of tinkering that would put Claudio Ranieri to shame. As I predicted at the start of August, plenty of new faces were brought in after the start of the campaign...most of whom have proven woefully inadequate, suggesting that they were panic signings. Thankfully, Killie have already made arrangements to move on several of them, which may create space for new arrivals that might actually enhance the squad.
Who's on fire? Where would they be without Kris Boyd? Not only has he shed some of his excessive poundage, so that, in medical terms, he is merely overweight, but he has rediscovered the appetite for goals that made him such a weapon for Rangers in the past. Boyd has 12 league goals. The rest of the Kilmarnock team put together have scored 13. At last, Johnston has started to trust some of his young players, and Chris Johnston and Rory McKenzie have been terrific in recent weeks.
Who's a damp squib? You'd think Nigerian internationals would enhance most Scottish teams. Not Reuben Gabriel or Rabiu Ibrahim, both of whom have now departed. Question marks have to be raised about both signings, especially since the club also signed another Nigerian, Papa Idris, last Spring who never played for the first team. Ibrahim spent a year at Celtic where he showed nothing, and then a year at Killie where he wasn't any better. Gabriel's sole contribution was a first half red card against Dundee United in December. Two August signings, Kyle Jacobs and Mark Stewart, have already sunk from first team contention and neither will have their deals extended beyond this month.
What'll happen between now and May? It must be worrying that Boyd is being linked with a move back down south; this team will collapse without him. Regardless, a charge for sixth place is well beyond them, and I still think there's a real chance that they could end up in the relegation playoff.
MOTHERWELL
***
What I said in pre-season: THIRD. "It would be a surprise if Motherwell didn't take a step backwards this season - but it may only be a baby step. There's still some very good players here. There isn't much depth, but that didn't hold them back last year."
How wrong was I? Since Motherwell are currently third in the league, I appear to have been spot on. That's not to say they've always been terrific - the nadir being a Scottish Cup exit to Albion Rovers. That result was followed by a 5-0 drubbing at home to Celtic, but Stuart McCall has clearly stuck a rocket up the players' backsides since - they have won five on the trot, scoring 15 goals in the process. They actually have 7 more points than they did after the same number of games last season, so they must be doing something right. The improvement may be the result of McCall finally finding a solution to the lack of width the team had in the early months; Iain Vigurs is playing his best football of the season, while loanee Lionel Ainsworth has hit top form on the other flank.
Who's on fire? Though they've had their rough patches, forwards John Sutton and Henri Anier have scored 17 between them, which has compensated for James McFadden's lack of contribution until recent weeks. Sutton simply seems to suit Motherwell better than he suited Hearts. Anier's loan deal runs out imminently; the Estonian will be a huge loss if he departs. Ainsworth, as mentioned above, is playing well, while Keith Lasley continues to show a remarkable engine for a man now well into his thirties.
Who's a damp squib? McFadden just appeared to lose his mojo, though a return to the scoresheet in the games either side of new year is reassuring. McCall finally found a reliable goalie - but Dan Twardzik was only an emergency loan, so now he'll have to choose once again between Gunnar Nielsen and Lee Hollis. Neither have looked reliable so far. And readers of The Terrace will have noted their recent dissection of Stephen McManus' poor season in central defence.
What'll happen between now and May? I predict a fourth place finish. I just feel Aberdeen and Dundee United have that little bit more, but Inverness, St. Johnstone and Hibs have that little bit less. Given the squad turnover last summer, that would still represent success, and another impressive addition to their manager's CV.
PARTICK THISTLE
**
What I said in pre-season: ELEVENTH. "there's not much of a gap between them and most of the other top flight sides, and they will prove awkward opponents who certainly have the potential to finish higher and cement their Premiership status."
How wrong was I? The division's newly promoted side started so well - in away wins at Ross County, St. Mirren and Inverness they looked far too good to get dragged into a relegation battle, playing neat passing football with a strong midfield and excellent width from their full-backs. So what went wrong? A win at Tynecastle last week - hardly an achievement at the moment - ended a run of just 1 win in all competitions since mid-September. They still haven't won a league game at Firhill this season. And, as a consequence, The Jags are now just 2 points above the dreaded eleventh place, and there seems a decent chance they'll have to beat a Championship side to make the playoffs.
Who's on fire? Kris Doolan has been far more effective than his scoring record at lower levels suggested, managing 7 goals and leading the line well. Full-backs Aaron Taylor-Sinclair and Stephen O'Donnell look like they belong at this level too. But the standout has been defensive midfielder Isaac Osbourne - when fit. Sadly, the ex-Aberdeen man is probably done for the season after an ankle operation.
Who's a damp squib? Doolan's decent play has also exposed the poor quality of the backup forwards, particularly the goalless John Baird. Winger Gary Fraser looked good after joining on loan from Bolton but hasn't played since August; Partick showed no interest in extending his deal after he got a lengthy ban for assaulting a Dunfermline player in a reserve game. Meanwhile, regular readers will know of my disdain for Gabriel Piccolo, but to be fair the Mexican has improved in the last few matches and, dare I say it, now actually resembles a football player.
What'll happen between now and May? The signing of Lyle Taylor as an alternative option up front looks like a wise move. But Alan Archibald needs more from a defence that has only managed two clean sheets since the opening day of the season. Do they have enough quality to overhaul Kilmarnock or St. Mirren? We'll see. I think they could do with bringing in two or three more players.
ROSS COUNTY
*
What I said in pre-season: SEVENTH. "I'm not certain just how good County will be, given there are so many new faces and Iain Vigurs has left. It's not clear where the goals will come from. But I can't see them being drawn into a relegation battle."
How wrong was I? Back to back wins to start 2014 have given County a bit of momentum, but their start to their second top flight campaign was far worse than just about anyone predicted - 3 wins from 18 in all competitions, including a League Cup exit at Stranraer. The defence looked disorganized and the attack was toothless - even now, not one of the squad's out-and-out strikers has scored a league goal. Though they are close to the teams above them, they currently occupy the playoff place.
Who's on fire? Graham Carey seemed to have a reputation at St. Mirren for being talented but lazy. I certainly have seen some of the former but very little of the latter, even while he's been shunted from left midfield to left-back to central-midfield. He has one of the most dangerous left feet in the top flight, and his prowess from dead balls is to be feared by all.
Who's a damp squib? You could pick any of the forwards, but Kevin Luckassen has been particularly honking. Given the number of starts he's made, he must look good in training; however, on matchday, the young Dutchman's workrate is just too poor for a lone striker. I've been slagging off Richard Brittain all season, but the County captain then produced a man of the match performance in the Highland Derby, presumably just to spite me.
What'll happen between now and May? Already, Derek Adams has made moves to strengthen all areas by bringing back Evangelos Oikonomou at left back, and loaning midfielders Michael Tidser and Filip Kiss and striker Jordan Slew. There's already been a positive impact, and I believe the only way is up, though the top six may be too great a leap. They certainly will not finish in their current position.
ST JOHNSTONE
***
What I said in pre-season: FOURTH. "there aren't many stand outs in this squad, but that didn't hold them back during the last two seasons. They don't score all that many goals, but they concede so few that often one or two is enough to win games."
How wrong was I? Will the real St Johnstone please stand up? They've thumped Dundee Utd, ICT and Ross County at home, yet been thumped by Dundee Utd and Motherwell away. Their current poor form - just 4 points out of 21 in the league - has seen them drop out of the top half of the table for the first time in months. The fact that they've managed only one away win - at Tynecastle - is a huge concern.
Who's on fire? Stevie May is a pretty special centre forward, trust me. He's strong enough to lead the line, yet his movement is excellent, he's pretty quick, and he makes good decisions. And he's a damn fine finisher. He, and St. Johnstone have suffered since his strike partner, the more cerebral Steven Maclean, got injured though. It's also been a good campaign for David Wotherspoon, who has shaken off the malaise that inflicted him at Hibs.
Who's a damp squib? Murray Davidson hasn't been particularly awful, but he's been nowhere near as good as he was in the last couple of years - possibly the result of missing pre-season while he tried to orchestrate a move to a better club. If you're looking for downright hopelessness, try Rory Fallon; the New Zealand striker's most memorable moment in a Saints shirt was getting himself sent off against former club Aberdeen, about 3 milliseconds after he came on as a sub. Tommy Wright has said he can go in January, but who in their right mind would take him?
What'll happen between now and May? St. Johnstone do have a team good enough for the top six, it's a mystery why they struggle so much away from McDiarmid Park, but it's their form on their travels that could keep them in seventh place, even if May keeps banging them in. If Wright can sort that out, I can see them overhauling at least one of Inverness and Hibs.
ST MIRREN
**
What I said in pre-season: EIGHTH. "it'll only take a couple of injuries to drastically weaken St. Mirren. Another season of inconsistency beckons, but I love their front four and I think they'll make a wee step forward this season"
How wrong was I? St Mirren were consistent at the start of the season - consistently dreadful, that is, as they managed only 2 points from their first 7 games. Danny Lennon's head was on the block, but then he had the novel idea of using players in their best positions - Jim Goodwin in midfield, Paul McGowan as a second striker, Gary Harkins as a substitute - and the Buddies found their feet. That said, they have hit another bad patch with only one win in the last 8 in the league. They currently lie ninth, only 5 points ahead of Partick in eleventh.
Who's on fire? Convincing Conor Newton to come back on loan from Newcastle was the best move that Lennon made last summer; the hard-working midfielder loves a goal or two and has been playing really well. The emergence of young full-backs Sean Kelly and Jason Naismith has been a welcome surprise, and their performances justify their inclusion ahead of more experienced players such as Danny Grainger and David Van Zanten. Whilst Goodwin is arguably the most detestable player in the league (at least to opposing fans), the Buddies are so much better with him anchoring the midfield.
Who's a damp squib? St. Mirren managed only 2 points from the 7 league matches Gary Harkins started, and it's no secret that they improved after the talented but work-shy attacker was dropped; he's now been loaned to Oldham. Goalkeeper David Cornell has also left, returning to his parent club Swansea, after a hapless loan spell that eventually saw him go from first- to third-choice between the sticks. But the worst of the lot was deadline-day loan signing Stephane Bahoken, who was just useless, and who has thankfully been shipped out.
What'll happen between now and May? I can't see them finishing in the top half, but the signing of Adam Campbell gives them a bit more firepower, and that could be the key to avoiding that eleventh spot. I think they'll stay up, but I'm not sure I would bet my mortgage on it.
L.
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