So, after leaving a settled Inverness team who are second in the league and in a League Cup semi final, Terry Butcher now dedicates himself to rebuilding Hibernian. On paper at least, he is going to a club with a bigger support, greater resources and a larger wage budget. So it shouldn't be too hard, right? Except the last five incumbents have failed to take Hibs where their fans and board think they ought to be. For years, it's seemed like the squad has been hugely talented, but that ability never seems to be manifested on the pitch. So what is Butcher likely to do with this motley bunch, given that he's stuck with them till at least January?
Tactics
For the most part, Butcher's Caley Thistle side were set out in a 4-2-3-1 formation, bar the latter stages of the 2009-10 first division promotion campaign when he deployed Adam Rooney and Richie Foran as a front two. Such was his love of this system that the entire ICT squad has been recruited with this system in mind. There is not one player currently at Inverness who does not fit a role (or more than one role) in a 4-2-3-1. Occasionally, this would come back to bite him on the bum, as there was no Plan B when the team were struggling, but for the most part it has worked well for him. I'm not convinced he has the tactical nous to come up with a new formation to suit the players he is inheriting. Instead, I'd assume he will look to mould the squad into one that can play with the same style and threat as his previous club. This may prove difficult...
The defence
What he wants: Butcher loves his full-backs to provide an attacking threat (this is the reason why the hapless but extremely athletic Lionel Djebi-Zadi was humoured for so long). He's willing to risk them being caught upfield, or to leave them isolated against wingers.
What he's got: He inherits a group of central defenders with plenty of potential. I can imagine Butcher seeing James McPake, a talented player who has lost his way badly amid a series of back problems, into a personal project. Paul Hanlon, who will be playing under his fifth different Hibs boss, is capable of being a good top flight central defender as well. I think we may see Ryan McGivern used more often in the middle, rather than as the makeshift left-back that he was so often under Pat Fenlon. Michael Nelson is an experienced stopgap, if nothing else, while young Jordan Forster has shown a few glimpses of ability.
On the other hand, there are barely any full-backs, let alone any of the sort Butcher has left behind in Inverness. Alan Maybury is years past his best, while Fenlon lost confidence in Fraser Mullen so quickly that the left-footed midfielder Lewis Stevenson was often used at right-back. Tim Clancy's versatility will make him useful when he returns from injury, but I would imagine that the new management team will bring some new faces in for these positions.
The midfield
What he wants: In the central midfield, Butcher has often used a holding player, such as Russell Duncan or Owain Tudur Jones, but only alongside someone who provides plenty of industry and bite; this year, he has gone with two such players in Richie Foran and Ross Draper. At least one pacey wide player is an absolute necessity; in the last couple of seasons, he has deployed two, though previously Foran has been used on the flanks as a more physical option. Inverness tended to use a creative attacking midfielder as a second striker (Danni Sanchez, Eric Odihambo, Andrew Shinnie) though this year we've seen a more orthodox central midfielder, Jamie Vincent, used in an advanced role instead.
What he's got: The key will be to find someone who can play that advanced midfield role. Liam Craig might be an option, but he's tended to be at his best when coming in from a wide position. He's certainly not got the vision or eye for a pass that Andrew Shinnie has. Paul Cairney, largely ostracized by Fenlon since joining from Partick, could be a wildcard. Scott Robertson could be used as a more industrious alternative, I suppose?
Further back, there will only be room for one of Kevin Thomson and Owain Tudur Jones; Butcher had the latter for two seasons at Inverness and wanted to keep him, but may feel that the former offers more mobility. Robertson, who will be an asset if he can recapture the form he showed at Dundee United, could also play in this area, though I can imagine Tom 'Tommy Tackle' Taiwo being the new manager's sort of player. I'm not sure where Lewis Stevenson would fit in.
As for wingers...er, what wingers? Pat Fenlon practically had a fetish for central midfielders. Until the raw but talented Alex Harris returns from injury, Butcher is stuck with just French loanee Abdellah Zoubir. Fenlon often used forwards James Collins and Rowan Vine as wide players with, shall we say, mixed results. This squad has less width than Kate Moss during a crash diet.
The attack
What he wants: at Inverness, Butcher inherited Adam Rooney, a tall, strong striker who was deceptively quick and who ran the channels effectively, as well as working his socks off; Billy McKay can't hold up the ball as well, and doesn't provide an aerial threat either, but his movement is better and quicker. For the last year, the ICT team has been set up primarily to provide ammunition for McKay.
What he has: Is James Collins mobile enough for this sort of role? I must admit that I've seen very little of him, though what I have seen is enough to know that he doesn't resemble a striker worth the substantial sum that Hibs paid for him. In contrast, Paul Heffernan did a good job of leading the line at Kilmarnock, and could be a reasonable option for the time being.
Poaching from Inverness?
This may prove harder than many realise, as Inverness have done a superb job of tieing up players on long term contracts. I'm sure Butcher would love to bring in the likes of Gary Warren, Josh Meekings, Graeme Shinnie, David Raven, Aaron Doran and Billy McKay...but all are under contract for at least another 18 months. How much of a transfer kitty do you think Rod Petrie can stump up, after forking out a six-figure compensation fee for his new management team? Not enough, I reckon.
Amongst the players that are out of contract is ICT captain Richie Foran, a disciple of Butcher's going back to Motherwell days. The Irishman has been reinvented as a central midfielder with considerable success, but, given he is 34 in June and there are already plenty of options in the middle of the park at Easter Road, would a move for the veteran be of benefit?
Time will be needed
I think it's pretty obvious that fixing Hibernian will not be a quick job. It may also require a number of new faces. But that was the case for the previous incumbents too. Let's remind ourselves what happened to the previous incumbents:
John Collins - October 2006 - December 2007, made 12 signings
Mixu Paatelainen - January 2008 - May 2009, made 15 signings
John Hughes - June 2009 - October 2010, made 15 signings
Colin Calderwood - October 2010 - November 2011, made 14 signings
Pat Fenlon - November 2011 - November 2013, made 30 signings.
Doesn't bode all that well, does it?
L.
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