Levein's Last Stand?

Does nobody study history any more?

A couple of days ago I pointed out on Twitter that it would be rather appropriate if Craig Levein 'met his Waterloo' in Belgium.  You see, the Battle of Waterloo was held in Belgium, where Napoleon was finally defeated; hence the phrase 'met his Waterloo' is often used to describe somebody who is meeting their end or denouement.

My followers on Twitter thought I was making some sort of obscure Abba reference.  You're all philistines and neanderthals, I tell you!

Moving on from my fit of pique, Scotland's boss faces a World Cup qualifying double header against Wales and Belgium with his jacket on a shoogly peg indeed.  Not only did Scotland pick up a paltry two points out of a possible six from their opening ties at home to Serbia and Macedonia, but his side were arguably second best in both matches.  Had it not been for some inspired goalkeeping by Allan McGregor, there is every possibility that we would not even have managed a draw on either occasion...and Levein would have signed on at the job centre by now.

Surely a failure to pick up even one win in these two games will be the final nail in the coffin.  For all the claims by the national coach that the team are making progress, Scotland's ten competitive matches under his tutelage have produced only three wins - two of which came against Liechtenstein, the other at home to Lithuania.  Whilst the FIFA rankings should always be taken with a pinch of salt, it surely means something that Scotland's current ranking of 56 is our worst since 2005.

The Tartan Army have earmarked the clash with the Welsh as a must-win game, and quite right too.  If the Scots disappointed, Chris Coleman's Wales have been catastrophically awful - they have lost all four matches under his tenure, including back-to-back defeats to start World Cup qualifying.  The second of those games was a 6-1 shellacking by Serbia; but for an excellent goalkeeping performance they would have met a similar fate in the earlier game at home to Belgium.

Not only that, but Scotland have Scott Brown and the two Fletchers back - Darren, for me Scotland's outstanding footballer, returns from illness and Steven has resolved his tiff with the boss.  The latter smacks of a desperate act - it is only 4 months since Levein confidently told journalists he would never pick the Sunderland striker, whatever the circumstances - but whatever the circumstances we are always going to benefit from having a £14 million striker in the fold.  Barring some last-gasp calloffs, this will be about as strong a team as Levein could possibly field.

The bottom line is this - if Scotland cannot beat this Wales side, they have no hope of making it to Brazil.  And Levein probably has no hope of reprieve.  The match on the following Tuesday in Belgium looks like a tough prospect, where a draw would be considered a decent outcome.  A win seems an unlikely prospect, especially given Scotland's away record in recent years.  Since THAT famous win in Paris more than five years ago, Scotland have played nine away qualifying games, winning only two (against Iceland and Liechtenstein) and drawing one (in Lithuania).  Aside from expected defeats to powerhouses Spain and Holland, we have also come away empty handed from Georgia, Norway, the Czech Republic and Macedonia.  Aside from the Liechtenstein win, Levein's only other away win with Scotland was in a friendly in Cyprus.  Five of his nine away games have been lost.

Forgive me for not being confident, even about the clash in Cardiff.  It's possible that the Welsh will turn this into a local derby, which may work against us as well.  And whilst we need to win, this Scotland team do not have a reputation for being adventurous - I sometimes wonder if the management believe that ten draws will be sufficient to earn qualification.  With anyone else it would seem unthinkable that Steven Fletcher wouldn't start tomorrow night...but this is Levein we're talking about; he sometimes seems to make decisions just to spite the fans and journalists who dare to point out his mistakes (leaving Jordan Rhodes out of the lineup and picking Ian Black would be recent examples).  It would not be a surprise if his starting eleven were sent out to be cagey and risk-averse...again.

My personal opinion is that Scotland require an absolute minimum of four points to stay in the hunt; anything less and the dream of the copacabana is over...in which case the manager's reign should end with it. I worry that three points, or even two, might be enough to deter the SFA from pulling the trigger, and leave us putting up with further embarrassment for several months yet.

If nothing else, Craig, please do one thing for me: SHAVE.  At least look dignified, for crying out loud.

L.