The 2012-13 Scottish Premier League season is going to be like none before it.
That, of course, is mainly because Rangers are not playing in it. The absence of the Bluenoses from the top flight has resulted in a level of uncertainty normally only experienced when I have to choose between eating seafood or a salad at a dinner party (for the record, I loathe both). At the time of writing, we don't know if the SPL will have a decent TV deal. We don't know if all the clubs have enough cash down the back of the sofa to get them through the season in one piece. Heck, three days before their first game of the season, we don't even know if newco Rangers will be actually allowed to play - which would be a shame, as Sunday's clash with Brechin City would surely result in BBC Alba's highest ratings ever, especially as I think you'll find most of the gaelic speaking north-west of the country would consider themselves as die-hard Rangers fans.
But there is one certainty, at least in most people's eyes - that Celtic will win the title, and at a canter. I agree with the first part of that, but not the second; I don't think that Neil Lennon's side will have it all their own way - bear in mind that the likes of Hearts, Dundee United or whoever else comes in second will not lose up to 12 points from matches against the Gers, so the point gap will be considerably less than the 31 points that separated the Bhoys from third placed Motherwell last season. For the record, I'm not certain at all who is best equipped from the 'diddy' teams to put up an alternative challenge for the title - both Hearts and the Arabs have lost important players as part of the cost-cutting measures that have been put in place by most this summer, even before Rangers' demise. It would be a surprise if Motherwell and St. Johnstone emulated last season's surprise success, and whilst Aberdeen and Hibernian surely can only get better, it's hard to see them getting right up near the top of the table.
And what about at the other end? This season we have not one, but two promoted teams, for the first time since 1999-2000 (when the league was expanded to twelve teams). Following Dunfermline's ill-fated campaign last time round, you'd expect the new sides to be the favourites for relegation...and the bookies would agree with you, for Dundee are 2-1 favourites, with Ross County next up at 3-1. So let me tell you straight off the bat - Ross County will not finish bottom. The Staggies are far better equipped for the top flight than the Pars were, and were utterly dominant in the first division last year. Importantly, they have kept the majority of the promotion-winning squad together, and most crucially you can bet that their sugar daddy owner, Roy McGregor, will offer funds in January if they need to strengthen. At the moment, I would say they look far stronger than their rivals across the Moray Firth, for one.
Dundee, in contrast, had budgeted for another first division campaign, but were invited to take the step up when Rangers' fate was sealed. I can't resist pointing out the irony here - the team taking advantage of Rangers' financial mismanagement is the one which went into administration twice in the space of only seven years, the second time as recently as 2010. It's no surprise that they are running a tight ship now - at the time of writing they had not made any extra signings since they were told they were playing a division higher. They have to be the default favourites to go down...though I remain hugely uncertain about the squad being assembled by Inverness boss Terry Butcher this coming season. Of course, if some teams get ten point deductions for going into administration, it could twist things a bit...
So that's some predictions for the upcoming season, and here's some more - Scottish clubs will suck in Europe (again), with Celtic missing out on the Champions League (again); the national team will make a hideous start to the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, and Neil Lennon will end up with yet another touchline ban at some point.
Hopefully in the next few days I will be able to put together a full-scale preview of all twelve teams, much like last year. It's always awkward doing it at the end of July, since it suits the clubs, in the current economic climate, to wait right up till the end of August to bring in players, and so it might be another six weeks before we can be sure who looks strong and who doesn't. But the universal mood of prudence amongst club chairman suggests we won't have nearly as many signings next month as we did a year ago, so the current squads are unlikely to be strengthened much further.
But, after the fiasco that engulfed Scottish football this summer, I can't wait for the action to begin, so we can focus on what's happening on the field, rather than off it.
L.
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