Much to the disgust of Inverness, Hamilton, Kilmarnock and St. Mirren fans everywhere, Falkirk refuse to just curl up and die. The Bairns scrambled their way past a Motherwell side who, it appears, are taking heed of those who have proclaimed they have nothing to play for; however improbable, there is still a combination of results that could put Well down if they lost their last four games, but I hope they don't realize that until they've played Caley in a week and a half.
Thankfully for my blood pressure, ICT nicked a win at St. Mirren that keeps us four points above the abyss, but even Hamilton, after choosing for a change to wait until they were two up before trying to kill a game in their win over Killie (at Inverness a fortnight ago, they actually took the ball to the corner flag with more than 10 minutes left. Unbelievable), will not be sleeping easily in their beds quite yet.
What seems clear is that relegation is a potential financial disaster for those who suffer the fate. The stories over the last weeks suggesting there are more holes in Setanta's accounts than in Real Madrid's defence imply that there will be serious cost-cutting as it is next season for those in the bottom six, even if they survive. The team who go down, presumably, will be hit even worse though.
All the bottom six are certainly vulnerable to an extent - even Motherwell admitted this week they might not have the muscle to keep Stephen Hughes, Graeme Smith and Bob Malcolm, though losing the latter might be considered a bonus? Part of Motherwell's problem might be the now infamous Fir Park playing surface - there are paddy fields more suited to a game of football - which is not going to encourage quality players to turn out for them.
St. Mirren and Inverness are probably the best placed to deal with the twin threats of demotion and Setanta pulling the plug. The Buddies pretty much wiped the slate clean with the bank by selling Love Street. They also have another asset worth almost as much as their former ground: Andy Dorman, who will command a rather large fee from someone this summer, a few hundred grand at least. Look through St. Mirren's squad, and you have a bunch of guys who have experience of playing for good division one teams (Dennis Wyness, Jim Hamilton, Garry Brady and Hugh Murray, for example), while other than Dorman, few of their players are likely to be in high demand.
ICT, meanwhile, are able in these circumstances to use their geographical isolation as an advantage; those who move north tend to hang around - how else have we held onto Ian Black for five years? Like with St. Mirren, there are a lot of players who know what division one is about, and few prima donnas. The fact that the Highlanders have the lowest wage bill in the SPL means that they are pretty well set for what the credit crunch might bring; if we do manage to stay up, the priorities will be to keep hold of the likes of Mihadjuks, Kerr and Foran, rather than bringing in much in the way of new folk.
In contrast, things are a lot less rosy for Kilmarnock, Falkirk and Hamilton. Accies look very well placed to stay up, which is just as well since they are actually "insolvent". Their problems will not have been helped by the way Billy Reid has almost stockpiled players over the campaign - 30 used so far in the SPL - though I assume a lot of them, particularly the more recent signings such as Kenny Deuchar, are on short term deals. Hamilton at least have a rather good cash cow in the midfield in young James McCarthy, who will surely command one hell of a fee when he leaves New Douglas Park. Expect rather a lot of departures in the summer, even if/when they secure their SPL status.
The fact that Falkirk budgeted for a top six finish this year remains the stupidest thing I have heard in a long while. At least they have Scott Arfield and Darren Barr to offload if necessary, but it would be fair to say that relegation would be a real problem. Certainly Lee Bullen and Jackie McNamara, despite rivalling the stars of a certain Michael Crichton book/movie for age, are under contract for next year, and I bet Neil McCann and Burton O'Brien are as well. And their stature (which these days sure as heck outrivals their ability) would suggest they each command wages that are somewhat above the average.
Oh, and Kilmarnock? Well, just to avoid doubt, their chairman admitted recently that they could go bust if they were relegated. Cheers for that. No pressure on the players then? After I slagged off Killie last month they promptly went and gubbed Falkirk, but they appear to have reverted to type and appear very vulnerable indeed. They have the Bairns at Rugby Park again next week; I believe that match is what they call a must-not-lose game. Kilmarnock have no momentum along with no money, so they better hope Falkirk don't build up a head of steam. And who from their squad could they sell to make ends meet?
So, in conclusion, all SPL clubs are vulnerable, but some are more vulnerable than others...
L.
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