The permutations are endless

Well, not quite. But almost endless. It would take a very brave man (perhaps a combination of Rocky and Rambo, with a little bit of the Terminator's ice-coolness? and perhaps Jeff Stelling from Sky Sports' know-how might help, what with it being a football situation and not an 80s B-movie) to predict the outcome of Scotland's group.

What you can say with a lot of confidence is that France should get 6 points from Faroe Islands (A) and Lithuania (H), while Italy should beat Georgia at home as well. Thus by Thursday morning, the French should have 25 points, with Ukraine (A) to follow. Italy will have 23, and it would be reasonable to assume that they will do for the Faroes in the last game, meaning they should score at least 26 points plus whatever they get at Hampden. We currently have 21, so we need six out of six this week to make sure we only need a draw against the Azzurri to guarantee our qualification, not withstanding the Ukraine-France result. Four out of six would mean we would still qualify regardless of the Italy result if France lost in Kyiv (note my pedantic spelling), while three out of six would mean...

Oh, I give up, it's all about as clear as the air in Beijing at rush hour time. I'm reasonably certain that at least part of what I wrote above is complete rubbish. Let's just score as many points as we possibly can against Ukraine, Georgia and then Italy next month, and we'll be sorted. Easy.

Elsewhere, its all over bar the shouting for Wales, who have a glimmer of hope only if they beat Cyprus and San Marino away and the Czech Republic don't win in Germany. Not entirely unfeasible, I suppose, but then Wales would need to probably beat both Ireland (H) and Germany (A) to finish second. Probably not all that likely.

Talking of Ireland, it's much more clear cut for them - lose at home to Germany and they're out. Even if they pull off a result, though, they still lie behind the Czechs who will have a game in hand.

Northern Ireland were always going to struggle to repeat their earlier feats in qualifying, but they've committed their own hara-kiri by losing in Latvia and Iceland. Anything they can get from Sweden away is a bonus, with the main hope being that Spain don't win in Denmark.

And finally, England, who got their mojo back so impressively last time out. Estonia at home should be a gimme, and a draw in Moscow on the plastic pitch - don't knock it, it's the same one as at Montrose, I'm told - would put them in the driving seat for second behind Croatia.

With only a handful of games left, the state of play should be much more obvious than this. But no-one apart from the hosts has yet guaranteed qualification, while mathematically 32 teams can still fill 14 places. I think that number might have dropped quite dramatically by next Wednesday night...

L.