Monday, July 31, 2023

2023/24 Scottish League Two preview

With no moneybags team in League Two right now it's decidedly harder to predict who is going to win it. Last season I suggested Forfar Athletic, who ended up looking like relegation candidates until they changed manager. Having a good (or terrible) boss, or being the team with the striker that scores twenty goals are the sort of factors that can have an exponential effect at this level.


And so we segue rather clumsily straight onto ELGIN CITY, who nearly finished bottom last season and have made Ross Draper player-manager after he oversaw the last few matches of the previous campaign. And they have lost their 'striker that scores twenty goals', Kane Hester. More than ever their relative remoteness geographically makes bringing in players tough; so far they have made three loan signings and their only permanent newcomer is from the Highland League. I was right about Albion Rovers coming tenth last season and I feel pretty confident about condemning Elgin this time around.


If someone is going to 'outdo' Elgin in the stinker stakes it might be CLYDE, relegated from League One via the playoffs last season but who appear more likely to be in danger of back-to-back relegations than yo-yoing back to League One. They are another side with a rookie in the dugout - Brian McLean - and they will have a heavy dependence on Martin Rennie for goals and they will need veteran midfielders Stuart Carswell and Ross Forbes to wind the clock back a fair bit. Sticking by the same backline that got them relegated last season also seems like a bold move, Cotton.


Of course PETERHEAD were even worse than Clyde last season but they pivoted to their (also inexperienced) co-player managers Jordan Brown and Ryan Strachan sooner and have signed forward Kieran Shanks permanently from Arbroath; he showed enough in a loan spell last season to suggest he might do very well for them. Scott Ross and Joe McKee add experience to the backline and midfield and guys like Andy McCarthy and Conor O'Keefe should shine at this level. Whether this is enough to get them into the promotion fight is another matter.


As the side newly promoted from the fifth tier (after only just overcoming Albion Rovers) THE SPARTANS should probably be more likely to finish in the bottom half but in truth they are a bit of an unknown to those of us who only looked ever at the Lowland League table to see if the B teams were struggling. They'll obviously be no mugs, and they've augmented last year's team with SPFL experience in Ayrton Sonkur, James Craigen and Danny Denholm. And they have Blair Henderson up front, who could well end up being League Two's top scorer, so I'd be surprised if they didn't establish themselves in the big leagues.


BONNYRIGG ROSE ATHLETIC only clinched survival on the last day of 2022/23, but Robbie Horn's side looked more comfortable and astute as they gained more experience in their first SPFL season. Whether they have improved the squad much - beyond goalkeeper Paddy Martin - is another matter. As with so many of their peers, the form of the first choice number nine - Kieran McGachie in the Rosey Posey's case - could well be worth several positions in the table.


STRANRAER were only marginally better than Bonnyrigg Rose, pulling away from danger after putting Scott Agnew in the dugout for the last few games. Agnew was an intelligent creative player and there is optimism that this will translate to his team. Ben Armour and Tam Orr should provide a goal threat, while they did well to poach full-back Cammy Williamson from promoted Annan. But how good - or not - their campaign is probably depends on how competent the manager is.


Ditto DUMBARTON, whose boss Stevie Farrell has had two full seasons in charge; the first resulted in relegation from League One and the second saw a massive lead blown to Stirling in the title race. Most of their other concerns are off the pitch: filing their accounts late recently is a wee bit of a red flag, whilst the decision to share their pitch again (this time with Broomhill instead of Rangers B) has gone down like a lead balloon. The flip side is that this is a very good squad. Goalkeeper Brett Long, a backline with Aron Lynas, Mark Durnan, Sean Crighton and Carlo Pignatiello, Ryan Blair and Ross MacLean in midfield and Ryan Wallace up front should give them more than enough quality to win the title. Perhaps it is theirs to lose, but it's easy to see how they'll lose it. Again.


FORFAR ATHLETIC arguably have the manager with the most impressive CV in the division, but only because Ray MacKinnon's move to coach under Duncan Ferguson at Forest Green fell through when Ferguson got the sack. MacKinnon came back with his tail between his legs and continued his rebuild of a side that were relegation candidates till he arrived in November. The permanent signings of Dundee United trio Adam Hutchinson, Finn Robson and Darren Watson, all of whom were on loan here last season, look good but Forfar seem desperately short up front with only Josh Skelly, plucked from Broughty Athletic, a recognised centre forward. If they can recruit well in that area in the next few weeks they should be there or thereabouts.


STENHOUSEMUIR look rather more settled these days than when Stephen Swift was wheeler-dealing like a poundshop Harry Redknapp; just the nine signings so far this summer with keeper Darren Jamieson, defenders Gregor Buchanan and Ross Meechan and midfielder Jordan Kirkpatrick looking like the standouts. Stenny's obvious weakness right now is numbers, but one can imagine this squad being augmented by a few loanees in the coming weeks and Gary Naysmith leading them in a promotion challenge.


Generally though the bookies seem to fancy EAST FIFE to do the business. Greig MacDonald seemed an unusual choice as coach last season but generally did well; it helps that they got Nathan Austin back to add to what was already a pretty overpowered front line. Brian Easton adds experience in defence (though he didn't half look past it at Hamilton last year) and with the experience of Allan Fleming and Stewart Murdoch among others they look pretty well set to compete at the top.

 

So here's my predicted table, though my caveat would be that I think the top four are all potential title challengers, Elgin look hot favourites for the drop and you could probably put the other five clubs in any order you like.


1 EAST FIFE


2 DUMBARTON

3 FORFAR ATHLETIC

4 STENHOUSEMUIR


5 PETERHEAD

6 STRANRAER

7 THE SPARTANS

8 BONNYRIGG ROSE ATHLETIC

9 CLYDE


10 ELGIN CITY


Remember to bookmark this and use it against me in the coming months.


PS Here's the Twitterati view...



Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

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Tuesday, June 13, 2023

The sixteenth annual Narey's Toepoker Team Of The Year (part 2)

I said I'd get it done 'eventually', didn't I?


CENTRAL MIDFIELDERS: CALLUM MCGREGOR (CELTIC), REO HATATE (CELTIC)

Honourable mentions: Leighton Clarkson (Aberdeen), Ylber Ramadani (Aberdeen), Cammy Devlin (Heart of Midlothian), Ryan Jack (Rangers), Keanu Baccus (St. Mirren), Mark O'Hara (St. Mirren)


I desperately wanted to not flood the team with Celtic players. And reader, I failed miserably. Trying to shoehorn anyone in ahead of McGregor and Hatate here would have made me a laughing stock.


There were some decent options elsewhere mind; Ramadani proved a superb signing for Aberdeen, who will move heaven and earth to try and get Clarkson permanently this summer. I love the way that Devlin snaps at opponents' heels like a rabid dog. For all his critics, Jack simply makes Rangers better when he is on the pitch. St. Mirren's success heavily depended on O'Hara's goals from midfield, but in the first half of the season Baccus was superb.


ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS: JOTA (CELTIC), MALIK TILLMAN (RANGERS)

Honourable mentions: Elie Youan (Hibernian), Daniel Armstrong (Kilmarnock), Joel Nouble (Livingston), Yan Dhanda (Ross County)


Now this was the hardest part. Normally I'd have two 'wingers' but I felt obliged to widen the description to give me more options here because Jota was the only out-and-out wide player who I felt justified a place in the XI. So this allows me to include Tillman as well, though Todd Cantwell would have been ahead of him if he met my qualification criteria.


Who else? Armstrong was Kilmarnock's best player by far this season. Youan was gloriously erratic in front of goal but his pace makes him a lot of fun. Nouble spent a lot of time out wide this year, so I'll thrown him in here. Dhanda looked a lot classier than the players surrounding him at County.

STRIKERS: KYOGO FURUHASHI (CELTIC), KEVIN VAN VEEN (MOTHERWELL)

Honourable mentions: Lawrence Shankland (Heart of Midlothian), Duk (Aberdeen), Kevin Nisbet (Hibernian), Curtis Main (St. Mirren)


Kyogo is an obvious pick, but who to partner him? I just can't get over Van Veen's extraordinary run at the end of the season and so that gives him the nod by a whisker over the outstanding Shankland. 


Unless I'm forgetting someone (and I probably am), Duk is the best Aberdeen striker since Scott Booth. Nisbet has come back from his serious knee injury stronger than ever and it'll be interesting to see how well he does at Millwall. I actually had Main on my worst signings list for last season, but St. Mirren have played to his strengths and he has repaid them and then some. It's a terrible shame for them that he has better offers for next season.


And that's it for another year. Depressingly, this is the first time I think there have been six players from one team - and also there's a record nine players who play for a cheek of the Glasgow a***. More evidence of the enormous gap between them and the rest, I suppose.


Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.



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Tuesday, May 23, 2023

The sixteenth annual Narey's Toepoker Team Of The Year (part 1)

I've done this every year for sixteen years, and to be honest it's never felt more like a chore. When you don't have any skin in the game - that's six years Caley Thistle have been stuck in the Championship - it becomes even harder to be motivated by watching Celtic and Rangers pump everybody. It's also more difficult than ever to pick players from other clubs for this XI, because I'm very close to crossing the 'taking the p***' line' by doing so. Still, I've tried my best.


For historical record, the previous fifteen lineups:


2007/08: Allan McGregor (Rangers), Alan Hutton (Rangers), Carlos Cuellar (Rangers), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Lee Naylor (Celtic), Barry Robson (Celtic), Stephen Hughes (Motherwell), Barry Ferguson (Rangers), Aiden McGeady (Celtic), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Steven Fletcher (Hibernian)


2008/09: Lukasz Zaluska (Dundee United), Andreas Hinkel (Celtic), Gary Caldwell (Celtic), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Scott Brown (Celtic), Bruno Aguiar (Hearts), Pedro Mendes (Rangers), Andrew Driver (Hearts), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Rangers)


2009/10: John Ruddy (Motherwell), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), David Weir (Rangers), Andy Webster (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Steven Davis (Rangers), Morgaro Gomis (Dundee United), James McArthur (Hamilton), Anthony Stokes (Hibernian), Kris Boyd (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)


2010/11: Marian Kello (Hearts), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), Daniel Majstorovic (Celtic), Michael Duberry (St. Johnstone), Emilio Izaguirre (Celtic), Steven Naismith (Rangers), Beram Kayal (Celtic), Alexei Eremenko (Kilmarnock), David Templeton (Hearts), Nikica Jelavic (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)


2011/12: Cammy Bell (Kilmarnock), Adam Matthews (Celtic), Carlos Bocanegra (Rangers), Charlie Mulgrew (Celtic), Paul Dixon (Dundee United), James Forrest (Celtic), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Ian Black (Hearts), Dean Shiels (Kilmarnock), Jon Daly (Dundee United), Gary Hooper (Celtic)


2012/13: Fraser Forster (Celtic), Mihael Kovacevic (Ross County), Gary Warren (Inverness CT), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Stevie Hammell (Motherwell), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Nicky Law (Motherwell), Murray Davidson (St. Johnstone), Leigh Griffiths (Hibernian), Michael Higdon (Motherwell), Billy Mckay (Inverness CT) 


2013/14: Jamie MacDonald (Hearts), Dave Mackay (St. Johnstone), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Andrew Robertson (Dundee United), Scott Brown (Celtic), Stuart Armstrong (Dundee United), Peter Pawlett (Aberdeen), Kris Commons (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock), Stevie May (St. Johnstone)


2014/15: Craig Gordon (Celtic), Shay Logan (Aberdeen), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Jason Denayer (Celtic), Graeme Shinnie (Inverness CT), Ryan Jack (Aberdeen), Greg Tansey (Inverness CT), Greg Stewart (Dundee), Stefan Johansen (Celtic), Gary Mackay-Steven (Dundee United/Celtic), Adam Rooney (Aberdeen)


2015/16: Jamie MacDonald (Kilmarnock), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Igor Rossi (Hearts), Andrew Davies (Ross County), Graeme Shinnie (Aberdeen), Nir Bitton (Celtic), Jackson Irvine (Ross County), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Kenny McLean (Aberdeen), Marvin Johnson (Motherwell), Leigh Griffiths (Celtic)


2016/17: Joe Lewis (Aberdeen), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Jozo Simunovic (Celtic), Joe Shaughnessy (St. Johnstone), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Stuart Armstrong (Celtic), Adam Barton (Partick Thistle), Scott Sinclair (Celtic), Moussa Dembele (Celtic), Liam Boyce (Ross County)


2017/18: Jon McLaughlin (Hearts), James Tavernier (Rangers), Scott McKenna (Aberdeen), Christophe Berra (Hearts), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Scott Brown (Celtic), Dylan McGeouch (Hibernian), John McGinn (Hibernian), James Forrest (Celtic), Daniel Candeias (Rangers), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock)


2018/19: Allan McGregor (Rangers), James Tavernier (Rangers), Kristoffer Ajer (Celtic), Craig Halkett (Livingston), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Callum McGregor (Celtic), David Turnbull (Motherwell), James Forrest (Celtic), Ryan Christie (Celtic), Ryan Kent (Rangers), Alfredo Morelos (Rangers)


2019/20: Mark Gillespie (Motherwell), James Tavernier (Rangers), Kristoffer Ajer (Celtic), Jon Guthrie (Livingston), Borna Barisic (Rangers), James Forrest (Celtic), Callum McGregor (Celtic), Ali McCann (St. Johnstone), Niall McGinn (Aberdeen), Odsonne Edouard (Celtic), Alfredo Morelos (Rangers)


2020/21: Benjamin Siegrist (Dundee United), James Tavernier (Rangers), Conor Goldson (Rangers), Jason Kerr (St. Johnstone), Borna Barisic (Rangers), Steven Davis (Rangers), Ali McCann (St. Johnstone), Ryan Kent (Rangers), David Turnbull (Celtic), Martin Boyle (Hibernian), Odsonne Edouard (Celtic)


2021/22: Craig Gordon (Hearts), James Tavernier (Rangers), Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic), Ryan Edwards (Dundee United), Stephen Kingsley (Hearts), Callum McGregor (Celtic), Joe Aribo (Rangers), Regan Charles-Cook (Ross County), Barrie McKay (Hearts), Jota (Celtic), Alfredo Morelos (Rangers)


Onto this year's vintage. As per tradition, we'll start with the goalkeeper and back four. It's always a back four...


GOALKEEPER: TREVOR CARSON (ST. MIRREN)

Honourable mentions: Joe Hart (Celtic), Zander Clark (Heart of Midlothian)

Carson's previous four seasons? Three as Motherwell's backup keeper and one as Dundee United's backup keeper (before moving to Morecambe on loan). So yeah, I think we were all a bit surprised that the Northern Irish veteran has suddenly become amazing. Unquestionably the 35 year old has had the best season of his career.


Yes, Hart is surely the best goalkeeper in Scotland but its hard to judge the quality of a player who faces about one shot on target every three months. Clark's move to Hearts looked strange to me - was being number two to Craig Gordon for a year or two that good a career move? - but Gordon's injury has given him an opportunity that he has grabbed with both hands.


RIGHT-BACK: JAMES TAVERNIER (RANGERS)

Honourable mentions: Nicky Devlin (Livingston), Ryan Strain (St. Mirren)

That's just the six straight years that the Rangers captain has been in my Team of the Year, though this season it's as much down to a lack of competition as anything else. Still, sixteen league goals is a heck of a return and whilst Rangers have a few problems to deal with this summer he isn't one of them.


Devlin's consistency for Livingston has earned him a summer move to Aberdeen. Strain has had an excellent first season in Scotland, not least because of his skill with a dead ball. I'm still insisting that players have to have played at least 19 league games to qualify for this, so that rules out both Alistair Johnston and Max Johnston. Don't @ me...


LEFT-BACK: GREG TAYLOR (CELTIC)

Honourable mentions: Borna Barisic (Rangers), Alex Cochrane (Heart of Midlothian)

Taylor has just been so consistent. His development under Ange has been far beyond what I expected and he held off the challenge of new signing Alexandro Bernabei with ease.


Barisic is probably beginning to decline but is still better than most left-backs in this league, which isn't saying much. Cochrane was superb in the first half of the season but his form has dipped along with his teammates in 2023.


CENTRE-BACKS: CAMERON CARTER-VICKERS (CELTIC), CONOR GOLDSON (RANGERS)

Honourable mentions: Carl Starfelt (Celtic), Jack Fitzwater (Livingston), Kye Rowles (Heart of Midlothian), Ryan Porteous (Hibernian)

Carter-Vickers is far too good for this poxy league and Celtic will be hoping it takes him a few more seasons to realise that. It's remarkable just how much CCV and Goldson are missed when they're not there; the drop off to the backups at Rangers and Celtic is steep indeed.


If I'd been feeling more reckless I'd have picked Porteous on the back of his performances before he signed for Watford in January. Rowles was amazing before the World Cup but mediocre after. Starfelt was solid except when CCV wasn't alongside him (coincidence?). Fitzwater is the next Livi player who will go on to better things this summer. Oh, and Mattie Pollock just didn't play enough matches for consideration, but he was very good for Aberdeen.



The midfield and attack will appear at some point. Eventually.


Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.


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Friday, May 12, 2023

Worst signings of the 2022/23 Premiership season (part 2)

Top ten time! Here's the countdown from 25 to 11, if you missed it.


10. JOHN SOUTTAR (RANGERS)

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and John Souttar getting injured. Inevitably Soapy got crocked on his Rangers debut and was missing for eight months; giving him an Old Firm game at Celtic Park for his first start felt like a disaster waiting to happen and so it proved with the centre-back gifting a goal with a dreadful backpass. Rangers need a reliable partner for Connor Goldson; Souttar is unlikely to be that player.


9. DEJI SOTONA (KILMARNOCK)

Even Killie fans may not recognise the name; the Irish striker joined on loan from Nice, made a couple of sub appearances and was never seen again. It was all rather reminiscent of the sort of player Lee Clark signed for the club back in the day. Sotona is now turning out for Burnley's under 23s.



8. MOMODOU BOJANG (HIBERNIAN)

I wouldn't believe there was a football club called Rainbow FC had Hibs not signed Bojang on loan from them. The Gambian forward was a low-risk, high-reward signing but was clearly out of his depth and ending his loan spell early in January was best for everyone.



7. PHILLIP CANCAR (LIVINGSTON)

Australian Cancar actually started for Livi on opening day against Rangers, only to be hauled off after a torrid 34 minutes before he got an inevitable second yellow card. He made a couple of sub appearances after that before disappearing off the radar from September onward. In January he returned permanently to Oz, six months into a two year deal with an optional third year.



6. JOSH MORRIS (MOTHERWELL)

One of Graham Alexander's last signings, it's not clear whether it's injury that has kept him out of action since the autumn or whether he is just unwanted at Motherwell. Regardless, he clearly wasn't rated by Stevie Hammell and isn't being missed by Stuart Kettlewell; Morris only registered on Scottish football's radar for somehow not getting sent off after poleaxing Celtic's Carl Starfelt back in October.



5. MARK BIRIGHITTI (DUNDEE UNITED)

Birighitti forced his way out of Central Coast Mariners to "chase my dreams", which invites the obvious question "In Dundee?!". He has improved in the last month or so...not that this would be hard, given the extraordinary number of individual errors he has made over the course of the season, whether it be flapping at crosses or parrying shots straight to strikers or most infamously being slide-tackled by Stevie May for a St. Johnstone winner. But with United having loaned away backup Carljohan Eriksson and having only the equally hapless (at least in his one appearance in Dingwall) Jack Newman as competition, the Australian is still between the sticks. And don't forget that United actually paid money to sign him...



4. RABBI MATONDO (RANGERS)

Four years ago Matondo was so highly rated that Schalke paid £11m to sign him from Manchester City. Rangers paid just a fraction of that to sign him last summer but he hasn't even looked worth that. An injury in the new year hasn't helped but the Welsh international has struggled to justify anything more than a succession of late appearances off the bench. The most damning thing one can say is that Scott Wright is usually preferred to him.


3. JAYDEN RICHARDSON (ABERDEEN)

On paper, the young Nottingham Forest right-back looked like a good signing with plenty of potential and the Dons paid £300,000 for him. Unfortunately he was following in the footsteps of Calvin Ramsey, but even if expectations had been low Richardson would have failed miserably to meet them. By the autumn Jim Goodwin was already playing centre-backs and midfielders (Matty Kennedy!) ahead of Richardson on the right side of the defence and he's made one start and one substitutes appearance since November. He is under contract for another two years, by the way.



2. HARRY MCKIRDY (HIBERNIAN)

If you're going to insist on a pink mohican then you really need to be pretty special. McKirdy...isn't. It didn't help that within two months of moving north he was suggesting on social media that he wished he hadn't. And then having kept his head down for months and got himself back into the first team picture at last he mouthed off on Instagram last week about being stuck on the subs bench. He still hasn't scored a single goal for Hibs (he managed two for Swindon in August before moving north).



1. ANTHONY STEWART (ABERDEEN)

Making a new signing club captain straightaway is a bold move. Partly because of this - and partly because of his dreadful performances and the dreadful performances of his fellow defenders - Stewart became synonymous with Aberdeen's struggles under Jim Goodwin. It doesn't help his cause that Barry Robson's first act on replacing Goodwin was to punt Stewart out on loan to MK Dons and since then Aberdeen have been pretty much rock solid at the back. What really did for Stewart though was the League Cup Semi Final; beforehand he did a crazy press conference where he discussed how he thought Antonio Colak was better than Alfredo Morelos, and then in the match itself he got himself sent off right at the end of normal time with a lunatic hack on Fashion Sakala. The Dons had no hope of getting through extra time a man down and there was no way back for him; within two and a half weeks both boss and skipper were out. Still, he has a year on his contract left to come back too...


Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.


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Friday, April 28, 2023

Worst signings of the 2022/23 Premiership season (part 1)

 So I don't have the time to blog much these days. But this series has been going on since 2012/13 and I'm worried that the world will end if I stop. Also, people tend to enjoy it; there's something so very Scottish Football about fans complaining that their team's duffer isn't at the top of my list.


The ten previous winners, by the way:

2012/13: Rory Boulding (Kilmarnock)

2013/14: Stephane Bahoken (St. Mirren)

2014/15: Jim Fenlon (Ross County)

2015/16: Rodney Sneijder (Dundee United)

2016/17: Joey Barton (Rangers)

2017/18: Eduardo Herrera (Rangers)

2018/19: Umar Sadiq (Rangers)

2019/20: Madis Vihmann (St. Johnstone)

2020/21: Shane Duffy (Celtic)

2021/22: Matty Longstaff (Aberdeen)

I feel like I really should shoehorn a goalkeeper into top spot this season, so I have a proper starting XI of calamities (one with an awful lot of forwards, mind).


Let's start the countdown from 25 to 11...



25= DILAN MARKANDAY & PATRIK MYSLOVIC (ABERDEEN)

My final list had 26 names so I'll include these two January arrivals together. Markanday was signed on January deadline day by the Dons, but lord knows why. The lad has at the time of writing played just seven minutes of football for the club and probably has splinters in his backside from sitting on the bench. The winger was considered quite the prospect at Spurs and then Blackburn, but his loan from the Rovers has proven to be a waste of his and everyone's time.  The Dons have an option to make Myslovic's loan signing permanent but since the Slovakian has only managed a handful of sub appearances since arriving in January it seems unlikely they will do so. I can neither confirm or deny any rumours that there may be a few more Aberdeen players on this list...


24. ROLANDO AARONS (MOTHERWELL)

Played 53 minutes of football over three sub appearances. Got injured. Went home. That about sums up Aarons' second spell at Motherwell, which was a shame because I remember a few flashes from him when he first pitched up at Fir Park in 2020.



23. JAIR TAVARES (HIBERNIAN)

Hibs keep bigging up Jair's attitude in training and performances for the reserve team, which has a feeling of 'damning with faint praise' about it. To be honest, I think we all expected rather bigger things from a Portugal U19 international signed from Benfica who has been limited to only a handful of brief cameos off the bench since August. Either he's far more a 'one for the future' than we assumed (they did give him a contract till 2026) or it just isn't happening.


22. JORDY HIWULA (ROSS COUNTY)

When Hiwula was signed by County, there were plenty of Doncaster fans on social media suggesting that they were glad to see the back of a striker who had scored just once for them and whose workrate had often disappointed. That sounded like sour grapes after Hiwula scored three goals in the League Cup group stages...but he has hit the net just once since then. The January arrivals of Eamonn Brophy and Simon Murray have pretty much bumped him out of first team contention. 


21. SCOTT BITSINDOU (LIVINGSTON)

A typical low risk, obscure Livingston signing, Congolese midfielder Bitsindou was signed from the Belgian second tier. He was trusted with just one minute of league action for Livi before being loaned to Arbroath in September though, and given he's 27 next month it's safe to say it wasn't for his development. He has had his good and bad moments in the Championship (the latter mostly when deputising in central defence) but injuries have limited his action in the last few months.


20. TOYOSI OLUSANYA (ST. MIRREN)

After a few League Cup outings, injury restricted Olusanya to just one substitute appearance for St. Mirren - in January - where he was himself substituted after eleven minutes. Shortly after that he was loaned to Arbroath where he has managed a solitary goal so far. One suspects he may not see out the second year of his two year deal in Paisley.


19. OLLY CRANKSHAW (MOTHERWELL)

"Olly is exactly the profile of player we need at the minute" enthused Stevie Hammell after signing him in January. "He will excite fans with his style of play". Crankshaw, who had an unimpactful loan spell at Dundee a few years back, has not exactly lived up to Hammell's expectations and has been out of the team since Stuart Kettlewell took over. Maybe he has been injured, but if he has been he is not important enough for anyone to say so.


18. CALLUM ROBERTS (ABERDEEN)

Roberts cost Aberdeen £100,000 and has so far managed all of four sub appearances due to ongoing problems with a hamstring injury. He still has two years on his current deal so I suppose he might be salvageable?


17. GRAHAM CAREY (ST. JOHNSTONE)

St Johnstone fans on Twitter made a compelling case for the veteran midfielder's inclusion: "started ok but the last 4 months have been a bit of a nightmare"; "his high point of the season was losing rock, paper, scissors"; "Carey has been really poor, but also Callum Davidson's obsession with trying to find a way to fit him into the team has kind of doubled down on it too". So I'll take their word for it.


16. OLIVER ABILDGAARD (CELTIC)

A rare miss for Celtic's recruitment team. The Dane's loan from Rubin Kazan was supposed to be for the whole season but was cut short in January due to lack of gametime. Abildgaard made nine sub appearances and zero impact; he is now at Verona in Italy where he counts ex-Hibs man Josh Doig as a teammate.


15. JAKE EASTWOOD (ROSS COUNTY)

Gets ranked higher because he's been on this list before - two years ago after a nightmare loan at Kilmarnock where his infamous solitary league appearance saw him gift a goal to Hibs and then go off injured at half-time. That's one more league appearance than he managed in Dingwall where he became the latest goalie to completely fail to displace Ross Laidlaw from the starting lineup. The loan deal was cut short in January. Still technically Sheffield United's player despite having gone out on about a billion loans so far in his career.


14. SHAYDEN MORRIS (ABERDEEN)

Another long term contract (four years!) and another long-term injury. Morris has made a single start for Aberdeen and has barely played since October (and not at all in 2023 so far) because of a major hamstring issue. Maybe he'll be like a new signing next season. Or maybe it'll be like he never existed...


13. ARNAUD DJOUM (DUNDEE UNITED)

There's a fine line between 'experienced' and 'past it' and the evidence is that Djoum has crossed it. Liam Fox will argue that he brought in the 33 year old partly for his influence and attitude, but what United needed was an enforcer in midfield; sadly the Cameroonian is a shadow of the player who strutted about the middle of the park for Hearts a few years back.


12. AIDEN MCGEADY (HIBERNIAN)

Now McGeady did start looking the part in the New Year having recovered from an ankle injury that sidelined him until the World Cup break. But then he wrecked his hamstring in February and is done for the season. Given he'll have been on a decent wage, the veteran has simply not been decent value. And going to watch Celtic B one weekend instead of his current club wasn't a good look.


11. ESMAEL GONCALVES (LIVINGSTON)

Sadly the Goncalves of 2023 is nowhere near the Goncalves of 2013 who inspired St. Mirren to League Cup glory. The Guinea-Bissau forward was in fact exactly what we all suspected of a guy who has spent the last few years playing in Uzbekistan, Iran and Bangladesh. He managed more red cards (one) than goals (zero) for Livi and pitched up at Raith Rovers on loan in February where he at least managed a debut goal against Motherwell in the cup.


The top ten will be up some time in the next few days/weeks...


Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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Saturday, December 31, 2022

The state of Scottish football going into 2023

 At one end of the scale, Scottish football finances are in rude health. Celtic and Rangers both reached the promised land of the Champions League group stages this season, which means megabucks. Whilst Rangers have had some interesting spending habits over much of the last decade, this along with the sale of Calvin Bassey will surely leave them no longer dependent on the riches of Douglas Park.


But 2023 could be a very difficult year for a number of Scottish football clubs. The main reason for this is the rising cost of, well, everything. Day-to-day running of a club has never been more expensive. Ditto travelling. And whilst attendances have been remarkably robust up till now the cost of living crisis is taking its toll on millions and tickets to the fitba will prove an unnecessary luxury for plenty.


The main focus of concern is the Scottish Championship. There are no particular warning sirens going off at any top flight clubs right now - and after the Setanta debacle, the Rangers liquidation and the end of Romanov at Hearts we all have a pretty good idea of when the midden is heading for the windmill. At Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibs and Dundee United - in terms of support, the next four biggest clubs in the country - it helps to have decent financial backing. All but the Jambos have a rich owner; Hearts have a seven figure sum of 'donations' coming into the club every year related to fan ownership, as well as wealthy individuals.


Hearts will be a particularly interesting case to watch going forward. Their participation in the European Conference League - which is guaranteed for the Cup winner/third placed team in the league (if the cup is won by either of the top two) - earned them millions. Their two wins in the group stage alone made them nearly half the prize money that they got for coming third in the Premiership last season. Whilst it is still breadcrumbs compared to the vast riches the Old Firm bring in, it gives them a significant financial boost in comparison with the rest of the domestic opposition. If Robbie Neilson's side can pull off another 'best of the rest' this season - as looks quite likely at the time of writing, then it is conceivable they could find themselves much stronger than the rest of the pack, though still a million billion miles behind the Old Firm.


As for the rest, one assumes they will be just fine...as long as they stay in the Premiership, or at least get out of the second tier at the first attempt. Kilmarnock spent a lot of money to escape, and I suspect there would have been a huge austerity drive at Rugby Park had they not managed promotion.


One area where there has been impressive progress has been in recruitment strategy. Scottish clubs are exempt from the same stringent work permit criteria that restricts English clubs from bringing in non-UK players, and many have taken significant advantage. Ange Postecoglu's knowledge of Japan has allowed him to bring such rough diamonds as Reo Hatate, Daizan Maeda and Kyogo Furuhashi to Celtic on the cheap, with more on the way in this transfer window. Other clubs have done well out of Australian players, with Hearts, Dundee United and St. Mirren all boasting players that went to the World Cup with the Socceroos. In general these signings have proven to be unmitigated successes, and almost certainly will have been far cheaper than British equivalents. They also tend to be young and so have potential resale value, as Hearts and St. Mirren will likely find with Kye Rowles and Keanu Baccus respectively.


I can't help suspecting that eventually some chairmen in the English Football League will cry foul and pressure the Home Office to close this particular loophole, but until then Scottish clubs are going to make hay.


As I stated earlier, it's clubs further down the ladder that I'm more worried about.


Part-time teams, less so. Whilst they will also be hit by the same increase in costs as everyone else, they should find it easier to manage because their playing budgets are lower and can be lowered further if necessary (albeit with an effect on the quality on the pitch). Full-time clubs have a wage floor; there is a level of income that a full-time player must receive in order for it to be viable for them to stay full-time. With the cost of living crisis that floor is going to get higher and it is going to become very difficult for some clubs to deal with that without becoming part-time.


Deloitte's recent description of four unnamed Championship clubs as "showing signs of financial distress" is pretty vague to say the least. However I would note that Dundee, Queen's Park and Ayr United have wealthy owners and are safe unless they pull the plug. Cove Rangers also have plenty of funding whilst fellow part-timers Arbroath are in rude health after last season's successes. As for the other five...well, I would worry about them. Hamilton and Raith Rovers have admitted they can't continue running the way they are, Morton already have the tiniest squad you can get away with (though fan ownership seems to be going pretty smoothly) and there are plenty of rumours in the Highlands that all is not rosy at Inverness Caledonian Thistle. Goodness knows where Partick Thistle are at after all the ownership shenanigans there, though I'd like to think they are less likely to be heading for a Help Ma Boab situation. If there is going to be a catastrophe somewhere in 2023 it will be in this division.


Hopefully (fingers crossed) there won't be.


Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

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Friday, July 29, 2022

2022-23 Premiership preview

To be honest, these days the Premiership preview is a slog to write. That's partly because my own team aren't in it, partly because I don't have the time to do pieces on individual clubs anymore and partly because for my entire football life it has been either a one horse or two horse race. And a race like that isn't interesting unless you're backing one of the two horses, So I'm happy to accept that this is a bit thin and fully expect to be quickly proved wrong on most of it before the clocks go back.

The prediction I'm most confident of? That the gap between second and third - which was 28 points last season - will not come down to below 20 points. With Celtic rolling in the Champions League money and Rangers with a chance to do the same, that chasm is not closing.

I suppose I'd better make a title prediction. Celtic have pretty much kept the band together, while Rangers lost Calvin Bassey and Joe Aribo. Whilst Giovanni Van Bronckhorst has signed some intriguing players, I'm going to go with the tried and tested and fancy another Championship for Ange Postecoglu. But neither team will drop points often.

It is far more fun to discuss the clubs who are in crisis. The obvious place to start is at St. Johnstone, who were 45 minutes away from the drop before finding their mojo against Inverness, but they have now lost Zander Clark, Jamie McCart, Shaun Rooney and Callum Hendry and replaced them with guys who aren't that far away from Masters football. There is a fine line between 'experienced' and 'washed-up'. The biggest concern is that you wouldn't bet on any of their forwards getting near double figures for goals.

Motherwell might have qualified for Europe but they stank the place out in the second half of last season and have a squad (and tactics, perhaps?) that desperately lack flair. Paul McGinn has been added to a backline that looks okay on paper but has been allergic to a clean sheet in 2022, and aside from the able but erratic Kevin Van Veen it's hard to see much attacking threat. The defeat to Sligo Rovers has justifiably enduced panic in the support and Graham Alexander is feeling under pressure. He certainly needs some new bodies through the door to save his bacon.

I'm also not feeling great about St. Mirren where Stephen Robinson struggled to make a positive impact after arriving in February. League Cup defeats to both Arbroath and Airdrie don't bode well either. The Buddies will also miss Connor Ronan badly after he returned to Wolves, and he has far bigger suitors for the coming campaign. That said, they have signed seven new players, including Robinson's former Motherwell stalwarts Mark O'Hara and Declan Gallagher who previously played their best under his management. If Australians Ryan Strain and Keanu Baccus are hits then that would be an enormous boost, and Jonah Ayunga has hinted he might have the eye for goal that the club's other forwards lack. It could go either way though.

As a newly promoted side Kilmarnock are probably obliged to be in this conversation but I'd expect Derek McInnes to make them tough to beat and to grind out enough results to be comfortably safe. Keeping goalie Zach Hemming for another year will help, but sooner or later time will catch up with talisman Kyle Lafferty. If it is sooner, Killie really need Oli Shaw to step up.

The best of the diddy teams? It's easy enough to make an argument for Hearts again as Lawrence Shankland's signing cancels out the end of Ellis Simms' loan but they will miss John Souttar and I don't know that they have the depth to balance their domestic action with the guaranteed European games. 

That might open the door for Aberdeen who have been refreshingly aggressive at spending the cash generated by the sales of Calvin Ramsey and Lewis Ferguson. Jim Goodwin certainly has a plan, but it seems pretty high risk, high reward as it depends on a lot of new faces settling quickly and gelling quickly.

Dundee United's manager's job appears to be afflicted by the same curse as the Defence Against The Dark Arts, but they've found another decent incumbent in Jack Ross and are another club showing some imagination in their recruitment, bringing in Australians Mark Birighitti and Aziz Behich. The former should adequately replace Benjamin Siegrist in goal. Steven Fletcher returns to Scotland 13 years after leaving Hibs and should still have plenty to give even at 35. Most remarkably they convinced Dylan Levitt to sign permanently from Manchester United after a superb loan spell. Whoever is in the dugout, United seem to have a plan.

That's rather more than can be said for Hibernian, who are surely too good for a relegation fight (though this is Hibs we're talking about, so anything can happen) but new boss Lee Johnson hasn't endeared himself to the fans or anyone else with a dreadful League Cup campaign and then his incredible claims that they were set up to fail by the authorities. Poor Rocky Bushiri, a player that the club supposedly didn't want to sign permanently but had to after playing him in too many meaningless games at the end of last season, and who then was played against Morton when he was suspended. On the plus side David Marshall is a definite upgrade in goal and they got a big fee for Josh Doig but it's hard to see what the club's strategy is right now. The man in charge of recruitment is the owner's son though so it's bound to be fine in the end.

And that leaves us with clubs that look too strong and too well organized to go down whilst also not quite having the resources to push for third. Livingston continue to punch above their weight thanks to the skills of David Martindale and their creative recruitment that this summer has rustled up ex-Hearts and St. Mirren forward Esmael Goncalves among others. Martindale finally ran out of patience with accident-prone keeper Max Stryjek and has forked out a decent fee - the most they have spent in about twenty years - on goalie Shamal George. Crucially they have in Bruce Anderson a striker who scores more frequently than most in this league. One or two good loan signings would turn them into bona fide top six contenders.

And lastly Ross County got better and better as 2021/22 progressed, suggesting that whatever your thoughts on him as a person there is no question that Malky Mackay is a top coach. Last year they were dependent on a lot of loan signings who have moved on, along with the superb Regan Charles-Cook. But their relationship with Southampton has allowed them to bring in the exciting young winger Kazeem Olaigbe, while striker Jordy Hiwula has settled in quickly. They've also gone to Canada to get midfielder Victor Loturi and William Akio and improved the defence with the experienced duo of Callum Johnson and Ben Purrington and goalkeeper Jake Eastwood. They should justifiably believe they can make the top half again.

So here's my predicted table. Should I allow for my suspicion that Hibs, St. Mirren, Motherwell and St. Johnstone will all change managers before Christmas? I suppose it might not change my predictions much...


1. CELTIC

2. RANGERS
3. HEARTS
4. ABERDEEN
5. DUNDEE UNITED
6. ROSS COUNTY

7. LIVINGSTON
8. HIBERNIAN
9. KILMARNOCK
10. ST. MIRREN

11. MOTHERWELL

12. ST. JOHNSTONE


Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

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