PREDICTED LEAGUE POSITION: Fourth
LAST SEASON: Second, 73pts
NOTABLE INS: Tomas Cerny (Partick Thistle), Lewis Ferguson (Hamilton Academical), Chris Forrester (Peterborough United), Stephen Gleeson (Ipswich Town), Dominic Ball (Rotherham United, loan), Tommie Hoban (Watford, loan)
NOTABLE OUTS: Kari Arnason (Vikingur), Daniel Harvie (Ayr United), Anthony O'Connor (Bradford City), Adam Rooney (Salford City), Danny Rogers (St. Mirren, loan), Ryan Christie (Celtic, end of loan), Chidi Nwakali (Manchester City, end of loan), Greg Stewart (Birmingham City, end of loan), Freddie Woodman (Newcastle United, end of loan), Nicky Maynard
LAST SEASON'S BEST XI (Departed players crossed out): Lewis, Logan, McKenna,
You'd have been forgiven for thinking at times that last season was a poor one for Aberdeen.
Sure, they were not as cohesive in attack as in the 2016/17 campaign, scoring far fewer goals. They failed to make a cup final after managing two in the previous campaign. And - until the final game of the season at Celtic Park - they continued to disappoint in matches against the two big Glasgow sides.
But they actually finished second in the table - for the fourth time in a row. Their final points total was only three lower than in 2016/17. For the most part, the Dons still got the results.
However, there remains a much bigger gap to Celtic than the nine point margin last year suggests. And in turn there is very little to separate Aberdeen from the clubs that finished just below them. Rangers seem to have improved, and if Hibs continue their trajectory from the end of last season then they will do better too.
Can Aberdeen avoid being knocked off the podium?
On the one hand, it looks like they might finally (famous last words) have sorted out their chronic problem at centre-half. Scott McKenna has emerged as a fine player who is likely to go on to be the club's most expensive ever sale. They now also have Michael Devlin, who looks fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out for the whole of last season, and Watford loanee Tommie Hoban who should be a massive upgrade on the departed Kari Arnason and Anthony O'Connor.
Hoban can also play at left-back, where the club still have Andrew Considine as a solid, unspectacular option. Shay Logan was disappointing last year by his high standards but there's no reason why he can't bounce back. And with Joe Lewis in goal too, Aberdeen should be very difficult to beat.
The problem is very much at the other end of the pitch. The side of 2016/17 could boast Jonny Hayes, Kenny McLean, Ryan Christie, Niall McGinn and, in the first half of that season, James Maddison as creative options. Now only McGinn is left, and he has struggled to get near the form he showed before his brief move to Korea. McLean has signed for Norwich; Christie has returned to parent club Celtic.
McInnes has brought in three new midfielders, plus Dominic Ball on loan again as a more defensive option. It was interesting that against Burnley the manager preferred to partner Graeme Shinnie with ex-Hamilton teen Lewis Ferguson rather than Irish playmaker Stephen Gleeson or attacking threat Chris Forrester. Ferguson might be considered one for the future, but they really need Gleeson and Forrester to succeed in the present if they are to compensate for the loss of McLean and Christie.
The creative burden therefore is likely to fall on McGinn and the entertaining-but-erratic-as-ever Gary Mackay-Steven. If Scott Wright pushes on after a season of stagnation then that would help; otherwise another flair player would be most welcome to prevent the club relying solely on direct balls to Sam Cosgrove or Stevie May.
And if McInnes has to go forward with only those two strikers to choose from he won't be happy either. May was a huge letdown last year and there are now concerns that he'll never bounce back to his old St. Johnstone form. Cosgrove is certainly a hard worker but he is still young and should really be considered as a project. It's no surprise they keep being linked with Louis Moult and other attackers, and one would imagine the crazy fee received for third-choice Adam Rooney will go towards a new signing in this area.
And to cap it all this could well be the thinnest squad in the Premiership at the time of writing, considering that Mark Reynolds is out long term and Greg Tansey has been frozen out. A handful of injuries and they would have a problem early doors.
Ultimately the defensive reinforcements are all very well but the weakness in attack is a huge concern. No question the club will make more transfer moves between now and the end of August but until we see who has come in - and whether they flourish - it's hard to see Aberdeen holding onto that second spot yet again.
THE SQUAD (players born after 1 January 1997 in italics)
Goalkeepers: Tomas Cerny, Joe Lewis
Defenders: Dominic Ball, Andrew Considine, Michael Devlin, Tommie Hoban, Shay Logan, Scott McKenna, Mark Reynolds
Midfielders: Dean Campbell, Lewis Ferguson, Chris Forrester, Stephen Gleeson, Gary Mackay-Steven, Frank Ross, Graeme Shinnie, Greg Tansey
Forwards: Sam Cosgrove, Stevie May, Niall McGinn, Connor McLennan, Scott Wright
THE BEST XI?
Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
1 comment:
Thanks for the post. I think Aberdeen are one of the most intriguing stories of the upcoming Scottish Premiership season. On one level, finishing 2nd four seasons running is remarkably consistent, and reaching two Cup finals in 2016-17 was decent too. On the other, the team seem to have settled into a position of being "nearly-men", with no trophies since the League Cup in 2014 (Derek McInnes' first full season at Pittodrie?). Whilst they were praised for running Burnley close in the Europa League on a far inferior budget, the fact is that they still ultimately lost and have never really come close to qualifying for the group stages of the competition.
The risk is, were McInnes to either leave or be slung out, the replacement would not get them back to that final level of worrying Celtic (as they did arguably in Ronny Deila's final season) or nicking a trophy. Rather, they would stumble and fall down to mid-table, particularly with so many rivals potentially on the up (Rangers, Hibs, Kilmarnock, maybe Hearts).
Yet I worry more that the feeling around the club is then "this is as good as it's going to get. 2nd place and a few gallant defeats in key matches," even on a subconscious level. They therefore have to try and find a way to revive the ambition and the belief, maybe really focus on bringing home a trophy in the cups this season. The Dons have done a great job on the resources they have but teams rarely prosper by standing still, or without smashing some glass ceilings (even self-inflicted ones). I think this is a critical phase coming up for the club.
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