Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Where do Celtic go from here?

On the one hand, there has been a famous home win over Barcelona, a run to the knockout stages of the Champions League and a 44th Scottish league title, along with the prospect of the Double.

On the other hand, there has been six league defeats and a league cup semi final exit to St. Mirren; meanwhile, the title-winning margin, currently at 15 points, is maybe not all that impressive given that the entire annual wage budget of second-placed Motherwell would probably pay for one pair of underwear for Georgios Samaras.

So does this count as a successful campaign for Celtic?
In Europe, it's hard to deny that getting to the last sixteen of the continent's premier club competition is a great achievement, particularly when the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City didn't manage it.  Sure, they had some luck, but they also produced impressive performances against Barcelona (twice, even though they lost at Camp Nou) and away to Spartak Moscow, and were deserving of second place in their group.  Neil Lennon showed a tactical eptitude far beyond what I and many others believed he was capable of.

Domestically, you couldn't say the same.

The Scottish Premier League title probably was a formality.  There was no way that anyone else would be able to sustain a challenge over an entire season.  But it wasn't until mid-December that the gap between first and second grew beyond three points.  Many had predicted the Bhoys would 'win the title by Christmas'.  They didn't even manage to do it by Easter.  There have been good performances - they have won by three or more goals no fewer than ten times this season.  But only once in the last thirteen seasons have they lost more than six SPL matches.  Losses at Ross County (after leading 2-0), Motherwell and St. Johnstone were careless.  Crashing at home to Kilmarnock and Inverness was unforgivable.  Meanwhile, the late December defeat at Easter Road is the only home game Hibernian have won since November 11.

In their defence, they could only beat what was put in front of them, and there was no doubt that some of the poorer results before the new year were related having to keep important players fresh for midweek European matches.  A run of 11 wins in 12 games over the winter, in between Champions League ties, shows that, when the focus was purely on the league, they got the job done.  But it isn't unreasonable to suggest that the squad weren't always 100% motivated for domestic duty.  And undoubtedly, the manager deserves some blame for that, and also made some bizarre and glaring tactical errors on occasion too.

The supporters didn't always seem up for it either.  We've previously discussed the abysmal attendances at Celtic Park this season, which according to Strathclyde Police average around 33,000 rather than the 'official' figure of over 40,000 which always counts season ticket holders as attending.  Even for the title-winning party game against Inverness at the weekend, there were a few thousand empty seats.

One wonders what the crowd figures will be like next season.  Will those people who never turned up renew their season tickets?  The news yesterday that prices have been cut by up to £100 suggests that Celtic are worried they won't.  But with no lure of an Old Firm match for a couple of years yet, the main motivation to pay for the whole domestic campaign seems to be just to get into pole position for tickets for cup finals and European games.  We'll see what happens.  But even treading water in this regard might be the best the club can hope for.

As for the players, is it realistic that this season's Champions League exploits can even be equalled?  I wouldn't be surprised if many sought a new challenge next season - apart from winning the League Cup (big whoop!) I don't see how they can achieve any more than they already have.  Don't forget as well that, over the border, fatter wage packets will be on offer, even from clubs at the bottom end of the Premier League.  Gary Hooper and Victor Wanyama will be subject to bids, certainly.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of Fraser Forster, Adam Matthews, Joe Ledley and Georgios Samaras dealing with the temptation to try their hands down south again.

If Neil Lennon's hand is forced and he has to sell, Celtic can at least expect a good financial return which would allow him to bring in fresh talent.  But whether he can get a 20-goals-a-season forward like Hooper for £2.5 million again, or an all-action midfielder like Wanyama for £1 million again, is uncertain.

The best case scenario?  The fans will come back in numbers, the club's top players will stay, a few reinforcements will be added, and the team will romp to the treble and again perform credibly against Europe's best clubs.  But maybe season ticket sales will drop, several players will leave, the new signings won't live up to their predecessors, there will be more apathy during the domestic games and they struggle even to get through the two qualifying ties just to get to the Champions League group stage.  I can't help feeling the latter scenario is a bit more likely.

There are only two certainties for Celtic's 2013/14 campaign - that they will win the SPL again, and that they will have got rid of that donkey Miku.  But, after a wee leap forward, next season may well see a step or two back.

L.

No comments: