Well, it's not exactly been a slow news week in Scottish football, has it?
First, we had the highs - two absolutely wonderful Scottish Cup semi-finals. Even the most cynical of supporters (yes, that's me) couldn't help feel that, just maybe, the game north of the border still has a positive future.
The good vibes didn't last beyond Monday afternoon, where the chairmen of the SPL clubs dragged Scottish football's reputation right back down.
I'm not going into all the grisly detail - partly because you've probably already read it a million times, and partly because I just can't be bothered. But absolutely nobody came out of this smelling of roses. St. Mirren and Ross County haven't really convinced anyone that their decision to vote down 12-12-18 is based on their fans' wishes, rather than short-term self-interest. However, for the men in charge of two of the nation's most dysfunctional clubs, Aberdeen and Hearts, to claim that the Buddies and the Staggies, two of the best run clubs in the country, are destroying Scottish football, stunk of 'pot', 'kettle' and 'black'.
The SPL as an organization has shown zero evidence in recent years that it could organize a swinging party involving lots of alcohol in a location where alcohol is manufactured...and Monday just provided us with more proof of this. Given that, after weeks of trumpeting a no compromise, "all or nothing", party line, they then suddenly started offering major concessions out of thin air to try and win the dissenting parties around. I don't blame Stewart Gilmour and Roy McGregor for not taking the bait. If SPL CEO Neil Doncaster said the sky was blue, I'd demand evidence in triplicate from him.
What is needed to sort out this dispute is a football equivalent of Henry Kissinger. What we've instead got is, in Neil Doncaster and the SFA's head honcho Stewart "there will be social unrest if Rangers aren't in the SPL" Regan, are the football equivalents of the Iraqi Information Minister. I suppose it could be worse - rumour has it that Henry McLeish has offered his help. Oh, dear god...
So as per, well, forever, no-one can agree on the best path for the professional game to take. The doom-mongers are once more preaching 'Armageddon', as apparently 12-12-18 was crucial to bring in sponsorship money and more TV cash; for right or for wrong, it is clear that the income from these areas is deemed far more crucial than that from the fans at the gate, who have made their view on this league format very clear indeed - i.e. that it should be inserted where the sun doesn't shine.
But nobody in public dares whisper what is arguably the most pressing question - can Scottish football, in its current state, actually be rescued?
I think that just about anyone, other than those Aberdeen fans who still think it is 1983, accepts that the glory days are gone. No longer will provincial Scottish sides compete for European trophies. World class players like Brian Laudrup and Henrik Larsson will not spend the best years of their career playing in our league. But sustaining the current setup, where the league champions are at least good enough to make the Champions League group stage, where the vast majority of clubs in the top two divisions are full-time, and where most players consider the SPL to be a step up over at least England's League Two, seems a reasonable target. But I'm not sure how realistic it is.
Scotland's biggest disadvantage at the moment is, frankly, that it is next door to England, and the Premier League's riches.
This piece from a year ago shows how much the SPL's TV deal is worth compared to other European leagues. It's no surprise we lag behind France, Germany, Holland etc. On the other hand, Denmark's deal is worth more than twice ours! Bad negotiating on the part of the SPL? I tend to think it's more because it's so easy for Scots to watch English matches that are higher quality, and the interest, and audience levels, for SPL games are not particularly high. Therefore SKY and ESPN - or BT Vision from next year - are less inclined to pay the money that other leagues are getting. Therefore, Scottish clubs are getting less income, and so they are falling further and further behind teams in other European leagues, who make more money and therefore can pay higher wages.
When Bradford City reached the English League Cup final this year, commenators pointed out their players were 'only' being paid about £1,200 per week. That's probably well above what the highest paid player at half the SPL clubs is currently on. Bradford are a League Two side. That's scary.
Even if 12-12-18 brings in some more TV and sponsorship money, my gut instinct is that, at best, it allows us to tread water whilst our continental compatriots thrash upstream. And I can't see any solution, barring a cash injection from the Bill And Melinda Gates Foundation, that can provide a better outcome than that. At worst, stagnation continues, the quality of the SPL drops further, and, as has seemed inevitable for several years, the first division becomes predominantly part-time.
But Scotland has a population of 5 million. England, with a population of 55 million (-ish. I can't be bothered looking up wikipedia to check) sustains 92 professional league clubs. Using that ratio, Scotland would have less than 10.
Maybe we just have to accept that, in the greater scheme of things, the quality of the domestic league in Scotland is doomed to end up closer to that of Wales and Ireland than to that of England. From a fan's point of view, I can live with that. ICT might be much weaker, but so would everyone else. The quality and cost of the players is not necessarily linear to the quality of the entertainment. I'd still go and watch my team, quite happily. I suspect the fans of other 'diddy' clubs would feel much the same.
But I bet that thought keeps some people awake at night. Stewart Milne, for a start; he needs the money not for the good of Scottish football, but to pay the creditors and keep Aberdeen afloat. But you can only swim against the tide for so long if the tide doesn't change.
L.
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