The Premiership's fourth dimension

So, after the cup nightmare with Barnsley, Liverpool look like they've turned the corner - an impressive Champions' League win against Inter, followed by a convincing defeat of Bolton in the league at a ground where they traditionally struggle. Tonight's game against West Ham is going to be another test, but it's an opportunity for the Reds to show that they have the quality to take control of that golden fourth place.

This concerns me somewhat, as last Friday, under the influence of a few cans of Guinness, I bet a Koppite friend of mine forty quid that Liverpool wouldn't finish in the top four. In the sober daylight, this maybe wasn't the brightest thing I've ever done.

It wasn't a completely off-the-cuff decision, honest. My murky brain did put some thought into it, mostly based on how much Everton and Aston Villa have impressed me recently. Villa continued their solid form by nicking a point at the Emirates in a game which they maybe should have won. They have been boosted by the emergence this season of Ashley Young and Gabby Agbonlahor as dual attacking threats, the maturity of Curtis Davies (who won an England call-up before his achilles went snap on Saturday - ouch, by the way) and the fact that Martin Laursen, almost certainly the best header of a ball in the EPL, has finally managed to stay fit for longer than Jade Goody can stay slim. Villa, with their 4-3-3 tactics, are in a lot of ways the antithesis of Martin O'Neill's direct style at Celtic (though he does still employ a big target man), and have been a joy to watch this season. I'm pleased to see they are in the race.

Meanwhile, later on Sunday avro, after the Pool won at the Reebok, I was pretty impressed as Everton saw off Portsmouth, even with the likes of Arteta absent. This followed a smashing win at Man City last Monday, and Everton's only two defeats in their last eighteen in the league were against Man Utd and Arsenal. I'm not kidding - that is bleeding good form, I tell you.

But both team's challenges depend on different things. Aston Villa's massive achilles heel (incidentally, Davies probably also has a massive achilles heel right now) is their lack of squad depth. Their worst run of form this season coincided with the absence of John Carew. If he breaks down again, Marlon Harewood is the only alternative, and while he is possibly the world's greatest trier on a football pitch (apart from me, obviously), he is not in that class. You lose Young or Agbonlahor, and you hit similar problems, and at the back, the cupboard is threadbare now Davies is out and the sole reserve, Zat Knight, earns a return to the team. If Villa can play their best eleven in every single game left this season, they have a chance. So, in reality, their hopes are similar to those of Caley making the SPL's top six - not on your nelly.

Everton, though, do have a bit of depth, as shown by their ability to cope with the absence of Arteta and Manuel Fernandes. The development of Phil Jagielka into a top centre-back has helped no end, and with Joleon Lescott now capable of playing left-back for England (albeit not that brilliantly on that occasion), Everton have the likes of Anthony Gardner and Leighton Baines on the bench, joined by another international, Andy Johnson. But Sunday's game emphasised that Everton, for all the options they have in other parts of the pitch, are hugely dependant on two players: Tim Cahill, who when not carrying out moronic celebrations remains one of the best goalscoring midfielders around, and Yakubu. I was fed up of the number of times Andy Gray referred to him as "The Yak" - Shaun Goater is the only player ever allowed to be constantly referred to in that sort of way" but it was because he is at the centre of everything good that Everton have been doing right now. He's a manager's dream right now - a striker who can't stop scoring. But it has to happen sooner or later, and if or when the goals dry up, so might Everton's season.

Anyway, I feel both sides deserve a lot of credit - they have each shown you can be defensively organised and still play attractive, open football. Kudos to both. But my common sense tells me that there's one overpowering reason why neither will reach the promised land next season. It's Fernando Torres.

L.

PS As an aside, I'll be doing my own team-by-team previews for Euro 2008 from late May, which will probably appear, in abbreviated form (minus the huge volume of statistics with which I have an unnatural obsession) on this page. Anyone who wants the full wahoonie of info, so that you too can comment eloquently on Greek tactics or Austrian forwards or whatever, just let me know or leave a comment