Traditionally, my League One season previews follow a standard pattern: the full-time teams near the top, the well-run part-time teams in the middle and part-time teams that seem one step up from a pub side at the bottom.
Except this time around the part-time teams seem to be the professional outfits, whereas the full-time sides...well, let's segue neatly onto the subject of INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE, who are back in the seaside leagues for the first time this century, and my God it has been quite the journey. Making predictions about League One this season is somewhat complicated by not knowing what's going to happen next with the biggest mob the Highlands has seen since the Jacobites assembled at Culloden. The squad consists of some veterans who are under contract and they can't get rid of, a bunch of kids who'll be in mid-table Highland League lineups within two years, and the manager's son, who wasn't good enough to get a game for Forfar last year. And the prospective takeover has more red flags than a Soviet Union military parade. Fan-bloody-tastic. Maybe the new money will bring in lots of reinforcements. More likely, there is no new money and a points deduction in the coming months...if the club still manages to exist.
Now let's avert our eyes from this car crash and remember there are nine other clubs in this division. Two others are full-time but operating such restricted budgets that this hardly seems to give them the advantage one might expect.
It certainly feels like COVE RANGERS have scaled back the ambition that took them to the Championship two seasons ago and saw them go full-time last year. The loss of top scorer Rumarn Burrell will hit them hard and it will be asking a lot of Grady McGrath to step up from the Highland League and fill the gap. Otherwise Declan Glass (back for a third spell, and permanently this time) joins Fraser Fyvie and Connor Scully in a strong midfield while defender Ryan Harrington joins from the Welsh League. At the time of writing Cove have won only five league matches in 2024 - two against the hapless Edinburgh City - and whilst I don't like reading much into the League Cup that 5-0 gubbing at home to Spartans set off a hell of a lot of alarm bells. Paul Hartley is surely on a shoogly peg already.
There's more optimism in Dumfries. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH actually flirted with a relegation playoff spot at times last year but have replaced Marvin Bartley with Peter Murphy, a manager who has quietly down really well on limited resources for years and has earned the chance to take over a full-time squad. They seem to have given him a wee bit to work with too, given the arrival of twelve new players including ex-Rangers starlet Kai Kennedy, veteran keeper Ross Stewart and utility man Brennan Dickerson from Oldham. They could do with another forward otherwise they'll be dependent on Leighton McIntosh for goals, but they should certainly be stronger than last year.
Murphy's old club ANNAN ATHLETIC did a phenomenal job to stay up last season, but they've lost their talismanic manager and replaced him with Wullie Gibson, who himself previously flopped as boss in Dumfries. Forty next month, Gibson will still do a job himself at right-back and he's managed to bring in Paul McGowan and Josh Todd as extra experience in midfield as well but Matty Douglas, Dom Docherty and Benjamin Luissint were all poached by their old coach. If Aidan Smith and Tommy Goss both manage to get into double figures again then they could yet survive, but the odds are longer this time around.
In theory, DUMBARTON are likely to be at the wrong end of the table if only because they came up via the playoffs. Manager Stevie Farrell has generally been seen as an underachiever, with his three seasons at the club having comprised a relegation and then two promotion playoff appearances with a squad that was probably stronger than the results they were getting. Still, they've kept their core together and signing Matthew Shiels (back after leaving in January) and Mohamed Niang from Cove will do them good. Expect a few loan signings before the end of August to give the team a boost though.
The other newly promoted side are STENHOUSEMUIR, who were unstoppable mid-season before somewhat limping over the line. Gary Naysmith has mostly stuck with the squad that won League Two, which means plenty of experience in the form of keeper Darren Jamieson, centre-back Gregor Buchanan and midfield duo Kyle Jacobs and Nat Wedderburn. One suspects they will also reinforce in the coming weeks.
ALLOA ATHLETIC were the strongest of the part-time sides last season and really seemed to kick on after Andy Graham took charge. The Wasps' main issue will be the loss of brilliant loan players Ethan Sutherland, Taylor Steven and Bobby Wales, which so far is only offset by the arrival of full-back Calum Waters from Morton. It may be hard for them to repeat last year's third place finish but they might also not get a better opportunity than this to get back into the Championship.
Ditto MONTROSE who also fell short in the promotion playoffs but who continue to punch well above their weight under Stewart Petrie; it feels like Petrie still has the nucleus of the squad that he won League Two in 2018, but he does a great job of renewing small parts of it every summer. Sean Dillon (41) and Michael Gardyne (38) are still seemingly going strong and the front two of Kane Hester and Blair Lyons both got into double-figures last season. Every time I write a League One preview I suggest the Gable Endies are due to regress a bit and up to now I've always been wrong...
Their local derbies with ARBROATH are back this year after the Red Lichties' stay in the Championship finally finished on the back of an horrendous run of form. Their win at Bonnyrigg in their last League Cup game was only their second since mid-December in all competitions. Despite that, and despite supporters' concerns, Jim McIntyre remains in charge. He's done well to convince Callum Gallagher to lead his attack and Keith Watson to marshal the defence. This should be more the level of guys like Innes Murray and Craig Slater as well. But the knives will be out if they have a slow start.
Bonus points to KELTY HEARTS for signing two new keepers this summer called Adams and Adamson. Michael Tidser has quietly done a lot with a little there, even though every offseason seems to require him to rebuild most of his squad; on this occasion first choice goalie Kyle Gourlay left because of his day job, Jason Thomson has retired and midfielder Reece Lyon moved to QOS. Ex-Hearts (the big ones) youth defender Callum Flatman has stood out in their League Cup games, while they did well to get Brody Paterson back permanently to boost their backline as well. Does Scott Allan have anything left in the tank? With top scorer Alfie Bavidge back at Aberdeen they'll need another loan forward, Queen's Park's Scott Williamson, to hit the ground running.
So my predicted table - based on the assumption that Caley Thistle are heading inexorably for catastrophe...
1. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
2. ALLOA ATHLETIC
3. ARBROATH
4. MONTROSE
5. KELTY HEARTS
6. COVE RANGERS
7. STENHOUSEMUIR
8. DUMBARTON
9. ANNAN ATHLETIC
10. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
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