PREDICTED LEAGUE FINISH: Eleventh
LAST SEASON: 10th, 41pts
NOTABLE INS: Kris Boyd (Rangers), Dale Carrick (Heart of Midlothian), Kallum Higginbotham (Partick Thistle), Jamie MacDonald (Falkirk), Lee McCulloch (Rangers), Scott Robinson (Heart of Midlothian), Steven Smith (Rangers), Stuart Findlay (Celtic, loan)
NOTABLE OUTS: Paul Cairney (Stranraer), Manuel Pascali (Cittadella), Conor Brennan (Stranraer, loan), Chris Chantler, Sammy Clingan, Nathan Eccleston, Alexei Eremenko, Lee Miller, Michael Ngoo
LAST SEASON'S BEST XI (departed players crossed out): Samson, Barbour, Ashcroft, Connolly,
The Allan Johnston era (if 18 months is long enough to be referred to as 'an era') was one to forget. The focus on youth and technique championed by predecessor Kenny Shiels was quickly dismantled, in favour of a direct style based more on running than thought. In his first season, they only stayed up because of Kris Boyd's goals. Last time around, they survived only because of the hopelessness of sides below them.
Replacing Johnston with assistant Gary Locke - and giving him a three year contract - was a bizarre move at a time where drastic change was called for. At Hearts, Locke proved he could motivate players for a time, but whilst the situation at Tynecastle makes it difficult to judge whether he can form any sort of medium-term strategy, he certainly showed that he's no tactical genius. And so, to the surprise of no-one, he got a few decent performances out of the players before a nightmare run put them inexplicably close to finishing in the relegation playoff spot.
His summer recruitment doesn't inspire confidence. It was no surprise to see Boyd return for a third spell, but whilst it would be harsh to completely write him off at 32 he had a nightmare at Rangers last season with just three league goals. There's no way he'll get anywhere near repeating his feats of 2014/15, when he finished top scorer.
Signing his erstwhile Ibrox teammates Steven Smith and Lee McCulloch was perplexing. McCulloch's own three year deal, at 37, is less crazy if it is primarily focused on him being assistant manager, because there's no way he should be anywhere near the pitch now. Smith can hit a mean free kick, but he didn't even look that comfortable at Championship level. And rumour has it that Marius Zaliukas is next on Locke's list. Now all that's missing is the appointment of Ally McCoist as club gardener.
Locke's other new boys are mostly his old boys - Jamie McDonald , Dale Carrick and Scott Robinson played under him at Hearts. The latter didn't impress back then and couldn't get near the team last season though, whilst McDonald underperformed at Falkirk last season. If he can wind the clock back a year or so then he should be a better option than Craig Samson, but there's not much in it. Carrick is a bit of a wild card; he is a capable forward, but he lost nearly all of last season because of his chocolate hamstrings.
Meanwhile, Kallum Higginbotham arrived only a few months after loudly criticizing artificial surfaces and announcing he'd never want to join a club who played on one. One wonders how much money it took to change his mind. With Alexei Eremenko gone - the right move, because his occasional spark of genius no longer compensated for long periods of standing around doing nothing - there will be a huge emphasis on Higginbotham to create chances for Boyd. On the flanks, Tope Obadeyi and Josh Magennis are big powerful players who will run all day, just not necessarily in the right direction. They will cause trouble, but just as often for their own teammates as for the opposition. They will do Boyd's running for him, but will they lay on goalscoring opportunities as well?
Rory McKenzie and Chris Johnston are more creative, but often seem too lightweight for this level. Perhaps teenager Greg Kiltie will get more playing time; he looked good playing just off a centre forward in April and May. Out of the current crop of young players, he looks the one most likely to go on to better things.
Are there positives? Mark Connolly, certainly; the centre back was great last season and has replaced the departing Manuel Pascali as captain. If he can mentor either highly related young loanee Stuart Findlay or Lee Ashcroft (a bombscare last season), then the defence might not be so bad. Right-back Daryl Westlake was all right when fit. Craig Slater is a good player who had a poor campaign, often because he was punted wide. With a good partner, he could stand out in the middle of the pitch, but it is debatable whether Robinson or Jamie Hamill fit that description. Young Mark O'Hara is an option there, but his development would be helped by playing him consistently in the same position rather than chopping and changing between defence and midfield.
If Boyd provides the goods, then Killie will be all right - anybody with a fifteen-goals-a-season striker would be. If not, then it's hard to see who will fill the void. Given some of last year's travails, it's hard to give the defence the benefit of the doubt too. With the manager unlikely to make the team more than the sum of their parts, there is justified worry at Rugby Park that it could be a long and very stressful season at the wrong end of the table. Could Kilmarnock's twenty-third consecutive season in the top flight be their last for a while?
THE SQUAD (players born after 1 January 1994 in italics)
Goalkeepers: Jamie MacDonald, Craig Samson
Defenders: Lee Ashcroft, Ross Barbour, Mark Connolly, Stuart Findlay, Lee McCulloch, Mark O'Hara, Steven Smith, David Syme, Darryl Westlake
Midfielders: Jamie Hamill, Kallum Higginbotham, Chris Johnston, Greg Kiltie, Scott Robinson, Craig Slater, Aaron Splaine
Forwards: Kris Boyd, Dale Carrick, Josh Magennis, Rory McKenzie, Tope Obadeyi
THE BEST XI?
Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly
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