PREDICTED LEAGUE FINISH: Fifth
LAST SEASON: 3rd, 65pts
NOTABLE INS: Owain Fon Williams (Tranmere Rovers), Dani Lopez (La Roda), Jordan Roberts (Aldershot Town), Nat Wedderburn (Cowdenbeath)
NOTABLE OUTS: Tarmo Kink (Levadia), Nick Ross (Dundee), Graeme Shinnie (Aberdeen), Marley Watkins (Barnsley), Eddie Ofere
LAST SEASON'S BEST XI (departed players crossed out): Brill, Raven, Warren, Meekings,
Finishing third in the league and winning the Scottish Cup would take some topping, even in the best of circumstances.
Without Graeme Shinnie and Marley Watkins, John Hughes' Caley Thistle have no hope of emulating last season's remarkable success.
That's not to say that they won't do well, but any team would struggle after losing some of their best players. ICT would rather have held on to striker Eddie Ofere and attacking midfielder Nick Ross, but they've gone too. Oh, and they never really properly replaced Billy Mckay, who left at the end of January.
They're likely to try and promote players from within - midfielder Danny Williams, for example, looks like he's being converted to left-back to replace Shinnie, while Aaron Doran, who spent much of last season on the bench, appears to be back in favour after spending the summer eating nothing but salad. But there are still some big holes to fill.
Ex-Cowdenbeath centre-back/midfielder Nat Wedderburn is big enough to fill a crater, but his signing shows a willingness to think outside the box that has done the Highlanders well in previous years. He may be legally required to make a beeping noise when he walks backwards, but he won't lose a physical battle and has a surprisingly good touch. He also gives an alternative option if Ross Draper's poor end to last season continues into this campaign.
Wedderburn is probably a squad player though, whereas ex-Aldershot winger Jordan Roberts and Spanish striker Dani Lopez will be expected to make a big impact. Roberts has impressed in pre-season with his pace and willingness to run at players, though he has a reputation for not doing his defensive work. Lopez has the cliched 'good touch for a big man', but it remains to be seen if he will be as effective in front of goal as he is with his back to it.
The other signing, rather curiously, was Welsh international squad keeper Owain Fon Williams (what is it about us and Welsh players with very Welsh names?). He had a rough debut in the Europa League, but should be fine once he's learned the names of his defenders. His signing suggests that Dean Brill is a long way from a comeback from his knee injury, and that Hughes no longer has faith in veteran Ryan Esson. Esson's failure to command his box left the team very vulnerable on set pieces at the end of last season, and it looks like he'll be focusing on his coaching duties.
The back four should be solid enough, as in Gary Warren, Josh Meekings and Danny Devine they have some quality centre-backs. Devine impressed in the spring and in order to accomodate him Hughes has sometimes moved Meekings to right-back; however, he'd be better off sticking with David Raven there, who is far more comfortable in that role even if he wasn't at his best last season. If Williams can to some extent replace Shinnie, then they're laughing.
The big concern is that, whilst the team are capable of monopolizing possession, they struggle to create gaps in the final third. Part of that is a lack of pace, especially now Watkins has left. Doran, Ryan Christie (who should continue to improve after being named Young Player of the Year) and Greg Tansey are all capable of playing the killer pass, but who will they play it to? Lopez has looked sluggish so far, and though he shouldn't be judged until he has a few more matches under his belt he has the turning circle of a bus. Williams or Carl Tremarco (who has the athleticism if not the skill) will provide width on the left touchline, but it's hard to see who will do so on the other flank or who might get in behind opposing defences. It's no surprise that a contract has been offered to Andrea Mbuyi-Mutombo, a trialist whose attributes seem rather similar to those of the departed Watkins.
So another top three finish is too much to ask, but on the other hand a collapse to the other end of table, a la Motherwell last year, seems unlikely also. Finishing in the top half should always be considered an achievement for a club of this size, and once again it should be within their grasp.
THE SQUAD (players born after 1 January 1994 in italics)
Goalkeepers: Dean Brill, Ryan Esson, Owain Fon Williams, Cameron Mackay
Defenders: Danny Devine, Lewis Horner, Josh Meekings, David Raven, Carl Tremarco, Gary Warren
Midfielders: Aaron Doran, Ross Draper, Richie Foran, Liam Polworth, Jordan Roberts, Greg Tansey, James Vincent, Nat Wedderburn, Danny Williams
Forwards: Ryan Christie, Calum Ferguson, Dani Lopez, Ali Sutherland
THE BEST XI?
Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
@Nareystoepoker Agree with pretty much all of that. Good preview of our chances.
— Andrew Sutherland (@ASutherland1983) July 28, 2015
@Nareystoepoker Bit harsh Re: Esson. No secret he carries long term injury that meant he was never likely to regain regular #1 spot.
— Don Johnstone (@CaleyD) July 28, 2015
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