Scottish Cup Final Preview - Falkirk

Can Craig Sibbald (no.10) and Blair Alston (no.8) fire Falkirk to cup glory?

The last time Falkirk met Inverness Caledonian Thistle, the stakes were also pretty damn high.  On 23rd May 2009, the two sides clashed in the Highlands, with Scottish Premiership survival at stake.  The home side had Ross Tokely sent off in the first half; after the break, Michael Higdon shinned in the only goal of the game to keep the Bairns up and consign Inverness to relegation.  John Hughes was in the away dugout that day.  A week later, he was also in the dugout as Falkirk played Rangers in the 2008/09 Scottish Cup final.  Nacho Novo scored the only goal as the Gers lifted the cup.

Since then, Inverness and Falkirk have had rather contrasting trajectories.  Caley Thistle came back up at the first attempt, they passed Falkirk on their way up.  Relegated in the summer of 2010, four consecutive third placed finishes in the second tier followed.  Six years on, Yogi Hughes is the manager of Caley Thistle.

Caley Thistle will be favourites.  Of course they will be.  They've just finished third in the Premiership.  They've knocked out three other top flight sides on the way to the final (even if they were somewhat, er, fortuitious in the semi final against Celtic).  This is unquestionably the strongest squad they've had in their 21 year history.  Falkirk, meanwhile, finished fifth in the Championship this season, which perhaps suggests that this isn't even the best Falkirk side of recent years, let alone in the club's history.  They didn't play a single Premiership team en route to Hampden.

And yet, on Saturday, the club appears in its fourth Scottish Cup final (they won it in 1913 and 1957, and were beaten by Kilmarnock in 1997).  And they may not get a better chance to win the cup again for, well, ever.  The town certainly seems to have recognized it; they are likely to take along more than 18,000 fans to the match, which will considerably outnumber their opponents' support.  And, whereas Inverness boss Hughes lost in his only final, Falkirk have in Peter Houston a manager who has lifted the cup before, with Dundee United in 2010.

Under Hughes, Falkirk had a reputation for trying to play a passing game which was easy on the eye.  That dogma was followed - and possibly pushed even harder - by successors Steven Pressley and Gary Holt.  When Holt left to take charge of Norwich's youth system last summer, and was replaced by the more seasoned Houston, most expected a more pragmatic, direct style.  For the most part they were wrong.  Whilst they are a bit more compact, and the addition of a few veterans has made them more streetwise, he's declined to curb the flamboyance of his more creative players. 

Craig Sibbald, for example, has flourished.  Sibbald made his first team debut at just 16 and has been talked about ever since for his deft footwork and skill on the ball.  But nearly four years on, fellow Falkirk prodigies such as Murray Wallace, Stephen Kingsley, Jay Fulton and Conor McGrandles have all been signed by bigger clubs.  Sibbald is still here, partly because he shone only sporadically.  Whether it's because of Houston, or because of maturity and experience (more than 150 first team games now!) he has been sensational all season long.  It was his header that won the semi-final against Hibs.  He scooped every single one of the club's end of the season awards.  His time is coming, or may have already come.

Sibbald is just one of several youthful players who will start the final, not least because more seasoned campaigners Mark Kerr and John Baird, both signed in January, are cup-tied.  It's quite likely that seven outfield players will be aged 23 or under.  That includes some other considerable talents. Peter Grant, son of the Celtic player of the same name, is an outstanding central defender.  Luke Leahy, an attacker brought north from the English non-leagues at 17, has in the last year been converted into an adventurous left-back whose forays forward are somewhat reminiscent of Graeme Shinnie, who he'll face at Hampden.  Will Vaulks was a central defender who seemed to lack a bit of height; he's now a box-to-box midfielder with a crunching tackle and a blistering shot.

But the loss of the thoughtful, ice-cool Kerr to the midfield and the Duracell bunny-like Baird to the attack will be hard to absorb.  It'll mean a tactical change, for a start.  They've been best this season when playing 4-4-2 but, without Baird, Houston will surely deploy a lone striker who, fitness depending, will be the terrific Rory Loy.  Loy has scored 34 times in two seasons, but his clever linkup play and thoughtful running are worth just as much as the goals are; that's why, after this match, he's signing for Dundee.  But whilst he has a good leap, he is no target man.  

Moreover he hasn't played since 6th March due to injury.  He's back in training, and he's taken part in some of the bounce games the club have arranged to try and keep sharp during this four week gap without a game, but Houston has been coy over how fit he'll be.  The temptation to start him and hope for the best may be too great though.  The other options up front are minimal.  Taylor Morgan led the line in the semi-final - a big lug of a striker who has contributed virtually nothing whilst on loan since the new year, whilst the other forwards are surely too inexperienced to start on such a stage.

Aside from Loy, they can also call on experience in defence, in the shape of goalkeeper Jamie MacDonald (previously a cup winner with Hearts in 2012, and a member of this blog's 2013-14 Team Of The Year) and centre-back David McCracken, whose organizational skills just about compensate for a terrible lack of pace.  Caley Thistle's penchant for trying to get behind defences may make him very vulnerable.  

Were Kerr and Baird available, Houston might feel that his midfield, with ex-Hibs man Tom Taiwo tucking in from the right side, could protect the defence and they could stifle and frustrate Inverness, especially with two hard-working forwards who could harass their centre-backs in possession.  Without them, he probably has to change to 4-2-3-1, a far more attacking formation which potentially suits their opponents more.  But there isn't much in the way of depth, so he doesn't really have a lot of alternatives.  From the neutrals' point of view, it could make for a very open game.

But Houston thrives on setting up teams for single, one-off matches.  He's had nearly a month to concentrate completely on this one, and Falkirk will be as prepared as they can possibly be.  Will that be enough to win them the trophy?  Well, they might need a bit of luck.  But Caley Thistle surely used up all theirs in the semi-final, didn't they?

Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.