Playoff picture is as clear as mud

So, St. Mirren are doomed to the Championship then.  Not mathematically, yet, but now they're ten points adrift with six games left.  They wouldn't be able to escape this predicament if they had Steve McQueen as manager; instead they have Gary Teale, the mastermind who, for a must-win game, sent out his team to play against Motherwell in the same way they did when they tried unsuccessfully to defend for 90 minutes against Celtic, but without his best defender from that game (Jeroen Tesselaar).  I don't imagine that Teale will be joining the Buddies in the second tier next season, either as manager or as a member of the playing staff.

So with their fate pretty much certain, the conversation moves onto the relegation/promotion playoffs.  Who will finish eleventh in the Premiership, and potentially face the fate that befell Hibernian this time last year?  And who would they play in the playoff final?  A month ago, I'd have said that Hibs looked to be the likely opponent, and a formidable one.  But their recent downturn in form has coincided with Stuart McCall's transformation of Rangers.  McCall appears to be the Viagra that has fixed months of impotence at Ibrox (that metaphor may keep you awake tonight).  I recently made a £20 bet with a work colleague that Rangers wouldn't be promoted this season - three days later, McCall replaced Kenny McDowall and it no longer looks like such a smart wager.  However, the Gers only went and got beat by Queen of the South last night, so who knows?

St. Mirren down, Hearts up, but who else will be in the Premiership next season?

That same colleague asked me this week who I thought that Rangers could be up against in a playoff final, and who would be the most beatable opponent.  My response to the first question was a Gallic shrug (you know, one accompanied by a protruding bottom lip and the words "I don't know" in a terrible French accent); to the second query, I answered "whoever has lost their last three games of the league season".

Whoever is in form now may not necessarily be in form at the end of May.  If a week is a long time in politics, then a month is an age in football.  It's not long since St. Mirren won in Dingwall with ten men, convincing every man and his dog that Ross County were going to finish bottom.  On 13th February, they had just twelve points and were adrift at the bottom; eight games later, they have thirty-four points.  That's seven wins in the last eight, compared to only two in the previous twenty-four league matches.  That's a staggering turnaround.

It's come because Jim McIntyre made some damn good signings in January (he's signed twelve players since he took over in September, so some of them had to be decent).  The addition of the clever winger Raffaele De Vita and the tireless Craig Curran have boosted the attack no end, and provided the energy required to play the high pressing game that McIntyre desires.  Meanwhile, Jamie Reckord and Marcus Fraser have been so outstanding as full-backs that they've already been given extended deals.  In the later days of Derek Adams' reign, the attitude of the squad looked hopeless, but now the team is full of players who look like they would run into a brick wall if it would help the cause.  County have momentum with a capital 'M'.

So do Motherwell, who also looked a shambles just a short while back.  Now they've won four and drawn one of the last six - and the defeat was at Pittodrie, where they led at half-time.  Is it a coincidence that the revival coincides with the return of prodigal son Scott McDonald to Fir Park?  Whilst he's chipped in with three goals, he's also brought the best out of young Lee Erwin, who has in spectacular form.  The rejuvenation of Lionel Ainsworth and the arrival of pacy Marvin Johnson means that there is plenty of service, something that Well's forwards have been devoid of for so much of the season.  That said, I'm not convinced Ian Baraclough has solved their defensive woes - he's using Josh Law and Anthony Straker as auxiliary full-backs, and their only clean sheets of 2015 were against the struggling St. Mirren and Hamilton.

But the two teams are in such good form that they've actually pulled others into the mix.  Motherwell's hosts this weekend are Partick Thistle, who are only four points better off and just a solitary point ahead of County.  That's even though the Jags have recently beaten Dundee United, St. Johnstone and ICT, and drew at Pittodrie last week.  They even have a positive goal difference. It's crazy that they are far from safe, but they've paid for terrible inconsistency (their win over Inverness was the first time they'd won two in a row in nearly two years) and the woeful Firhill pitch that has stopped them from playing their passing game.

Kilmarnock have been thinking more about nicking a top six spot than what's below them, but they aren't safe either despite having 38 points.  They seemed to improve considerably in terms of attitude and organization when Gary Locke replaced Allan Johnston in the dugout, but they've actually only won one of the last six (against St. Mirren) and lost their last two - at Ross County and at home to Motherwell.  It'd be embarrassing as anything if they were to go down after giving Locke a three year contract last week.  They are probably only one win away from being able to get out their buckets and spades, but the squad is so thin that even Paul Cairney got a start last week.

There's still a long way to go.  The highest finishing total for any team that has finished eleventh in the top flight (under the current league structure) is 41 points, so that seems like a reasonable target for the Premiership teams to aspire to.  But it's still far from clear which top flight club will drop into the playoffs...and it's not much clearer who their opponent will be.  It'll be fun finding out.


Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.