Who's going down?

We're getting towards the business end of the season now.  In the Scottish Premiership, we've reached that point where, bar a postponement or two, everyone's played each other once.  We know who's challenging at the top.  And we know who's fighting relegation (and it's not Hamilton Accies, who I and everyone else predicted for the drop back in July).

It's a three horse race to avoid demotion to the Championship, or the relegation/promotion playoff.  Motherwell, St. Mirren and Ross County are far, far more hopeless than any of the other sides in this division.  Any other year, each of them would finish miles adrift at the bottom.  Yet at least one of them will be a top flight club again next season.

So let's look at the runners and riders, and the reasons why each of them might avoid relegation, and the reasons why each of them might finish bottom of the pile.

MOTHERWELL
Played 22 games, 17 points.  This is Motherwell's worst start to a season since 1995-96.

WHY THEY'LL STAY UP
Motherwell have already got more points on the board than the two teams below them, and have a game in hand on St. Mirren.  In a relegation dogfight, plenty of experience is a good thing, and The Steelmen have it in spades - this week Stephen Pearson became the seventh player aged over 30 at the club. New manager Ian Baraclough hasn't had enough time yet to imprint his philosophy on the team, or to bring in his own players; once he has done so, they'll surely improve. If rumours of a swap deal with Oldham to obtain James Dayton (with Iain Vigurs going the other way) are true, then that adds a bit of pace and flair that is sorely lacking.

WHY THEY'LL GO DOWN
So far in 2015, Motherwell have played four, lost four, scored one and conceded fifteen. Most new managers concentrate first on making their team hard to beat, but the defence is just as porous as it has been all season.  If this is a 'new manager bounce', god knows what will happen when it wears off.  Baraclough was supposed to have a lot of contacts in England and Ireland, yet the only new face is an ex-Motherwell player who was most recently in India, who does not exactly tick the boxes of what Motherwell need right now (either a half-decent defender or a midfielder with some pace).  I recently met the club's doctor at a wedding in Edinburgh, where he was quite insistent that his side were the worst in the Premiership.  In his opinion, they had been second-best even in the games they'd won this season.


ST MIRREN
Played 23 games, 15 points.  The last top flight team with such a poor home record after this many games were Hamilton Accies in 1986-87.

WHY THEY'LL STAY UP
Under caretaker Gary Teale, St. Mirren are a completely different proposition from the shambles that Tommy Craig left behind.  They're well organized, and the decision to play Kenny Mclean in a more advanced role has been a huge success.  Mclean and John McGinn are better players than anyone on the books of the Buddies' relegation rivals, and young Stevie Mallan is playing out of his skin too.  Having picked up four points from their last two games, including that morale-boosting win with ten men in Dingwall, they are in better form than Motherwell and Ross County currently.

WHY THEY'LL GO DOWN

They still haven't won a league game at home this season, and haven't managed a single clean sheet home or away.  Teale has been allowed to bring in Yoann Arquin up front, and to shift a few unwanted players out, but until there's some sort of certainty over the club's ownership - and, by extension, Teale's role - it seems unlikely that multiple new signings will be sanctioned.  Arquin has not proven that he can score prolifically, and with Steven Thompson too often lame these days, the club remain badly in need of a striker who is lethal in the penalty box.  There remains a considerable lack of depth and experience, as they only have 10 outfield players (including Teale) over the age of 21.  And don't forget that the teams around them have games in hand.

ROSS COUNTY

Played 21 games, 11 points.  Since the summer, Ross County have made twenty new signings and used thirty different players.

WHY THEY'LL STAY UP
The attitude of the players can't be faulted; Jim McIntyre has them working hard on the pitch.  This time last season, chairman Roy McGregor bankrolled a number of new faces so that the Highlanders could climb out of relegation trouble, and it's quite possible that he'll do it again.  Like Motherwell, County have plenty of experienced players, and manager McIntyre has been involved in relegation battles both as a player and as a manager, so he knows what is required.  Perhaps new signings Cameron Burgess and Marcus Fraser will fix the back four.

WHY THEY'LL GO DOWN

The trouble for County is that the players' enthusiasm does not compensate for the complete lack of quality in pretty much every area.  Whilst there is plenty of experience available, Richard Brittain's been struggling with injury all season and Scott Boyd is out of favour.  McIntyre still doesn't know his best XI, for all his chopping and changing.  He still hasn't got the defence anywhere near organized, and there is a complete lack of width going forward, at least in the absence of young Tony Dingwall.  In fact, McIntyre's record as County boss is now inferior to that of Tommy Craig's at St. Mirren.  They can't fall back on a good home record; they've won a single game in Dingwall this season, and only four in the past year.  They need to find some form soon, but there may not be many more points in the next few weeks - the next four games are Celtic (H), Inverness (A), Motherwell (H) and Aberdeen (A).  If they don't at least win the third of those matches, they may well be done for.

Who do you think is doomed?

(with thanks to John Maxwell, for his opinions on Ross County's situation)

Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.