KILMARNOCK
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"Kilmarnock will struggle once more. The longer that Johnston has the reins, the greater the possibility that their 22 year run in the top flight comes to an end in the summer of 2015."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
My mate Iain Meredith, a regular contributor to the Talking Points blogs, put it well a few weeks ago - Kilmarnock are the sort of team who will win a few in a row, then lose a few in a row, and ultimately end up mid-table. That seems to be the way of things just now, anyway. They have sufficient points on the board that, bar a Hibernianesque collapse, they won't end up in a relegation battle, yet I find it difficult to imagine them being in the top six after the split.
They are remarkably inconsistent - the likes of Josh Magennis and Alexei Eremenko play like world-beaters one week and like donkeys the next (though Eremenko is improving as he gets gametime under his belt). For me, Killie's two best players have been central defender Mark Connolly, who looks calm and assured, and attacker Tope Obadeyi, who is top scorer despite playing on the wing and being injured for periods. It's disappointing to note that their young players haven't really pushed on; Ross Barbour, Lee Ashcroft, Chris Johnston, Craig Slater and Rory McKenzie have all got plenty of opportunities, but haven't really looked like fulfilling their potential. The one youth who has impressed is striker Robbie Muirhead, and it's a mystery why he is on the bench most weeks while the plodding Lee Miller gets to start.
Only if these kids blossom will Allan Johnston's side finish higher than their current seventh place, but Magic can surely claim that his team are moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Killie don't have that many veterans, so it's possible that there might be enough cash for a player or two...particularly if his name is Kris Boyd. Johnston might be tempted to bring in someone more experienced to compete with the likes of central defender Ashcroft and wide man McKenzie.
MOTHERWELL
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"I've got plenty of evidence that I could use to justify predicting a drop down the table for Motherwell. And yet recent history suggests that they'll bring in a couple of effective new faces by the end of August and do just fine."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
Maybe we shouldn't be surprised that Motherwell have crashed down the table this season; in 2013-14 they always seemed to be punching above their weight, but had that remarkable knack of finding ways to win without playing well. That has deserted them this season, and then some; things deteriorated so much that Stuart McCall, who'd taken them to two consecutive second place finishes, felt he had to resign.
The weaknesses are much the same as before - a lack of pace, difficulty chasing games, not much in the way of options from the bench. But the positives have gone. The side's experienced backbone of Stephen McManus, Keith Lasley, Simon Ramsden and John Sutton have all lost a step. They've looked more dangerous in attack as Henrik Ojamaa has gained fitness following his return on loan, but the club's thirteen league goals are the lowest in the league.
There was a brief improvement under new boss Ian Baraclough, but the recent hammering at Hamilton seems to have put paid to that. Whilst they have a little cushion over St. Mirren and Ross County, it still seems more likely that Motherwell will be fighting at the bottom come May than in a cushty mid-table spot.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Baraclough will surely be keen to bring in new faces of his own, but what he can do will depend on how much of a budget the prospective new ownership can drum up for him. To be blunt, he could do with improving them in every position.
PARTICK THISTLE
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"Unless they can strengthen at both ends of the pitch, they are also probably guaranteed to finish in a similar position to last season, and to face another battle to avoid the drop."
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"I've got plenty of evidence that I could use to justify predicting a drop down the table for Motherwell. And yet recent history suggests that they'll bring in a couple of effective new faces by the end of August and do just fine."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
Maybe we shouldn't be surprised that Motherwell have crashed down the table this season; in 2013-14 they always seemed to be punching above their weight, but had that remarkable knack of finding ways to win without playing well. That has deserted them this season, and then some; things deteriorated so much that Stuart McCall, who'd taken them to two consecutive second place finishes, felt he had to resign.
The weaknesses are much the same as before - a lack of pace, difficulty chasing games, not much in the way of options from the bench. But the positives have gone. The side's experienced backbone of Stephen McManus, Keith Lasley, Simon Ramsden and John Sutton have all lost a step. They've looked more dangerous in attack as Henrik Ojamaa has gained fitness following his return on loan, but the club's thirteen league goals are the lowest in the league.
There was a brief improvement under new boss Ian Baraclough, but the recent hammering at Hamilton seems to have put paid to that. Whilst they have a little cushion over St. Mirren and Ross County, it still seems more likely that Motherwell will be fighting at the bottom come May than in a cushty mid-table spot.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Baraclough will surely be keen to bring in new faces of his own, but what he can do will depend on how much of a budget the prospective new ownership can drum up for him. To be blunt, he could do with improving them in every position.
PARTICK THISTLE
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"Unless they can strengthen at both ends of the pitch, they are also probably guaranteed to finish in a similar position to last season, and to face another battle to avoid the drop."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
The last few weeks sum up Partick's season beautifully; they annihilated Caley Thistle 4-0 in Inverness in December, and recently came very close to beating Dundee United, but in between they managed to lose to Motherwell. One week they can be irresistible, the next a shambles. They've conceded six goals in the last 10 minutes of matches, and these have cost them nine points. They have a positive goal difference, yet are down in ninth. To be blunt, they must drive their fans and their manager, Alan Archibald, crazy.
Inconsistent form comes from having inconsistent players, especially in attack. Whilst plenty of players have chipped in with goals, Kris Doolan, the only out-and-out centre forward on the books, has only three league goals, and Archibald has recently resorted to using Ryan Stevenson up front instead. It's no surprise that the likes of Kallum Higginbotham and Steven Lawless blow hot and cold. At the back, the problems have been more injury-related; the strongest back four would be Stephen O'Donnell, Conrad Balatoni, Frederic Frans and Danny Seaborne, but they've been unable to use them consistently. Arguably, the most reliable player this season has been young Gary Fraser, who looks quite a prospect.
Whilst Partick are surely too good to finish in the bottom two, it's hard to argue that they should be much higher than ninth at the moment.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Archibald has already been busy clearing space, with left-back Jake Carroll's loan spell finishing and fellow defender Aaron Muirhead signing for Falkirk. A striker has got to be a priority, and defensive cover may also be needed if Jordan McMillan's internal suspension turns out to be more than a storm in a teacup.
ROSS COUNTY
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"The Staggies still seem a wee bit short of being top six material, but I'd imagine they'll be closer than they were last season."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
At least I was right when I said County would have a slow start to the season; however, it was so slovenly that it got Derek Adams the chop before the end of August. The initial bounce under his replacement, Jim McIntyre, seems to have been of the 'dead cat' variety though, as he's won only two out of seventeen games since his appointment and the club currently bottom on goal difference.
That's not to say anyone else would do a much better job - whilst the team doesn't lack heart, there is a huge dearth in quality. County have had so many centre-back pairings that everyone has lost count, which explains some of their horror showings in defence. The general lack of consistency in the lineups (they've used 30 players already this season, several of whom are no longer at the club) tells us that the manager still doesn't know what his best eleven is.
In recent weeks, the team has been set up to stop opponents from playing and in the process grind out draws and narrow wins. Whether that will be enough to keep them up or not is debatable.
That's not to say anyone else would do a much better job - whilst the team doesn't lack heart, there is a huge dearth in quality. County have had so many centre-back pairings that everyone has lost count, which explains some of their horror showings in defence. The general lack of consistency in the lineups (they've used 30 players already this season, several of whom are no longer at the club) tells us that the manager still doesn't know what his best eleven is.
In recent weeks, the team has been set up to stop opponents from playing and in the process grind out draws and narrow wins. Whether that will be enough to keep them up or not is debatable.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Chairman Roy McGregor has never been shy about getting his wallet out in times of need, which is just as well. Erratic striker Yoann Arquin has already gone, with English forward Craig Curran brought in. The next decision will be whether to extend the short-term deals of Paul Quinn, Lewis Toshney and loanee Michael Gardyne. If the former two leave, then a new centre back is probably needed. Wide players are a must, especially if Darren Maatsen moves on. Just like everyone else, they would love to find a consistent goalscorer.
ST JOHNSTONE
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"They'll probably be in the top half again. Although they probably won't get the plaudits they deserve for it."
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"They'll probably be in the top half again. Although they probably won't get the plaudits they deserve for it."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
Well, they're in sixth, but an awful September and October - one point out of a possible eighteen - made a relegation battle look possible. But they took nineteen out of the next twenty-one points available, not least because James McFadden got fit and fellow attacker Michael O'Halloran got hot. Even with the latter's six league goals, the Perth Saints have been pretty shot-shy though, and the return to fitness of Steven Mclean is a big boost. Brian Graham, on loan from Dundee United, has been efficient enough, but he lacks the intelligence of Mclean.
As ever, the defence is still stuffy, and the midfield's graft just about makes up for the lack of goals and creativity that partly stems from Murray Davidson being a shadow of his former self. It's hard to outdo Chris Millar for workrate. Sadly, there's been little to suggest that youngsters Liam Caddis and Scott Brown deserve a run in the side. There's only so long you can rely on veteran players - the Perth Saints have nine over 30.
The gap to the teams above them may already be too big, but it seems reasonable to bet on St. Johnstone to stay in their current spot.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
Yeovil loanee Adam Morgan left before the end of December, having flattered to deceive in his occasional cameos. If striker Chris Kane returns from a loan at Dumbarton, Morgan might be replaced by a defender to add some depth. Other than that, further squad turnover seems unlikely, as no-one is obviously surplus to requirements.
ST MIRREN
WHAT I SAID PRE-SEASON
"The bottom line is that St. Mirren don't look any better than they did last season...and last season they nearly got relegated. That doesn't bode well."
HOW WRONG WAS I?
It's hard to see how the last few months could have been much worse for St. Mirren fans. Tommy Craig never inspired much confidence as manager, and the side lurched from one tame defeat to another under his direction. Craig was finally dismissed last month after just three wins in eighteen competitive games. By the end there was no shape, no confidence, no hope.
Veteran winger Gary Teale has been in charge for the last few matches, which have seen a very slight improvement in performances but not results. Whether Teale will be given the job until the summer is unclear, partly because the club may be sold in the near future. But he's done about as much as he can with a squad that contains more dead wood than the Mary Rose. Too many players are out of their depth at this level; the blame for that lies on Craig, who recruited them. But it doesn't help that they've missed two of their more reliable men, Isaac Osbourne and Steven Thompson, for much of the season so far.
Remarkably, St. Mirren aren't currently bottom of the table, despite managing just eleven points so far. But they seem certs to finish no higher than eleventh, and their hopes for survival depend heavily on their two shining lights in midfield, Kenny McLean and John McGinn, stepping up.
Veteran winger Gary Teale has been in charge for the last few matches, which have seen a very slight improvement in performances but not results. Whether Teale will be given the job until the summer is unclear, partly because the club may be sold in the near future. But he's done about as much as he can with a squad that contains more dead wood than the Mary Rose. Too many players are out of their depth at this level; the blame for that lies on Craig, who recruited them. But it doesn't help that they've missed two of their more reliable men, Isaac Osbourne and Steven Thompson, for much of the season so far.
Remarkably, St. Mirren aren't currently bottom of the table, despite managing just eleven points so far. But they seem certs to finish no higher than eleventh, and their hopes for survival depend heavily on their two shining lights in midfield, Kenny McLean and John McGinn, stepping up.
LIKELY JANUARY ACTIVITY
This is very difficult to predict whilst there is doubt over who will be in charge, but Teale is talking as if he will be doing some recruiting. Manchester City loanees Ellis Plummer and Adam Drury have returned to England after underwhelming loan periods, which might free up funds. It wouldn't be a surprise if the terrible James Marwood was moved on as well. A centre-forward to complement or replace Steven Thompson is a necessity, since Calum Ball isn't the answer, while another wide player is required if Teale hangs up his boots. A new central defender or two wouldn't go amiss either, since Jim Goodwin and Marc McAusland have both had trying seasons.
Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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