ABERDEEN
****
What I said in pre-season: SECOND. "You wouldn't be all that surprised if the Dons were a let-down once more. But if McInnes can get the best out of his new charges, it could be a very special season at Pittodrie."
How wrong was I? The Dons are indeed currently the best of the rest, though there's not much between them and the chasing pack. The defence has been mean, the midfield has improved markedly since Willo Flood and Barry Robson returned to full fitness, and Niall McGinn and Scott Vernon are in good form up front after an underwhelming first few months. Curiously, they seem happier on their travels than at Pittodrie, but if they rectify that problem then they should finish the season in their current position.
Who's on fire? Last I heard, Peter Pawlett was a mediocre winger whose only skill was diving to win penalties. Derek McInnes has given him licence to rove between midfield and attack and he's been a revelation. And, ironically, he now gets properly fouled in the box...yet gets booked for diving instead. Jonny Hayes has continued to wreak havoc on the flanks, and most surprisingly Jamie Langfield and Andrew Considine appear to have developed into proper footballers at last.
Who's a damp squib? It isn't easy to like Calvin Zola, is it? Maybe it's the way he acts like a bouncer rather than a footballer, or maybe it's because he seems to do nothing but give away fouls. He has managed a goal or two, but he has been usurped up front by Vernon and few Dons fans are disappointed by that. Meanwhile, Russell Anderson looked finished a year ago. Is 'even more finished' a valid description?
What'll happen between now and May? It wouldn't be Aberdeen if they didn't muck it up, right? True, but it's a long time since things have been as rosy as this. The loss of Michael Hector is a blow, but Swansea loanee Alan Tate should fill that gap. They're still the best bet for that second place...and probably the favourites for the League Cup too. Could 2014 be the year that Aberdeen become 'famous' once more?
CELTIC
****
What I said in pre-season: CHAMPIONS. "Domestically, expectations are sky-high to the point that anything other than a treble would he underwhelming. The focus will be primarily on repeating last year's European success, but this will be tough to manage without Victor Wanyama and Gary Hooper."
How wrong was I? Depressingly on the money, given that Celtic remain unbeaten in the league, despite practically phoning in some of their performances. The only Scottish team to beat them this season? Morton, in the League Cup, a competition Neil Lennon seems destined never to win. Everyone - even their own support, given the poor attendances at recent matches - is bored to tears of them domestically, but they can only beat the dross that's put in front of them. However, their Champions League campaign was an almighty disappointment, as they finished bottom of their group and won only one match.
Who's on fire? Virgil Van Dijk looks bored with how easy defending in Scotland is and has now got into the habit of wandering forward with the ball - which, depressingly, has given Celtic more of an attacking edge rather than weakening them at the back. I don't believe for a second that Arsenal and Man City want him, but I don't believe for a second that he'll stay in Scotland for long either. At the other end of the park, Kris Commons has had a sensational 2013 and has been scoring for fun, which is just as well as Celtic's strikers have been poor this season.
Who's a damp squib? Van Dijk aside, Lennon's summer reinforcements have not really enhanced the squad at all. Nir Biton, Derk Boerrigter, Teemu Pukki, Amido Balde - none of these guys have had any impact as of yet. His other signing, injury-prone Steven Mouyokolo, got injured - who'd have thought it?
What'll happen between now and May? Well, they can pretty much sleep-walk to another title. The question is whether they can stay motivated enough to manage an unbeaten season. After the League Cup debacle, I would expect that Lennon will make retaining the Scottish Cup a major priority.
DUNDEE UNITED
****
What I said in pre-season: FIFTH. "Those of a positive disposition will point out that United are capable of hurting any opponent with the flair and firepower they have up front. The glass-half-empty types will be worried about a threadbare defence"
How wrong was I? Initially, I appeared completely wrong - United's defence was far more solid than expected, thanks to the emergence of Andrew Robertson, whilst David Goodwillie was far more impotent than his surname suggests (sorry!) and the attack misfired. Then Jackie McNamara tried using Nadir Ciftci at centre-forward, which seemed to act as a catalyst for a stunning run of results which produced 26 goals in just 7 games in November and December. A recent stutter has left them fourth in the table.
Who's on fire? Which of the young players should we focus on first? Left-back Robertson was playing for Queen's Park last season, and looks like he could be playing international football in the near future. The hype surrounding Ryan Gauld is entirely justified, while his fellow midfielder Stuart Armstrong has come on leaps and bounds this season.
Who's a damp squib? Goodwillie is the obvious disappointment, a poor imitation of the player that left Tannadice for £2million a couple of years back. He's been kept out of the team by Brian Graham, for crying out loud. Chris Erskine has seen very little action after some poor performances in August, but the former Partick winger has been struggling with injuries and may yet come good.
What'll happen between now and May? I think it's more likely that Gauld and Robertson will depart in June than in January, which should leave United equipped to make a run at second spot. It's do-able, but I think third or fourth is more likely. Whatever happens, their swashbuckling style should continue to excite fans and neutrals alike.
HEARTS
*
What I said in pre-season: TWELFTH. "Even if they manage to exit administration, they are unlikely to be able to sign reinforcements until January; given the quality and depth in the squad currently, overcoming their 15 point deduction looks like a tall order."
How wrong was I? Well, I didn't predict that Hearts would come out fighting at the start of the season, with 7 points from their first 4 games. But nor did I foresee that they would be so poor that subsequently they've managed only 6 points from the last 17 games. Already 19 points adrift, they are doomed to the drop. And, since they're still in administration, they are unable to bring in a player or two to ease the burden on their exhausted youngsters.
Who's on fire? Goalkeeper Jamie McDonald has impressed this season, which is just as well since he's been so busy. It's a miracle that he hasn't slipped a disc from bending over to pick the ball out of his net so often. Jason Holt has looked good when fit - which hasn't been too often. Danny Wilson's form has dipped drastically in the last couple of months, but that's because he's been playing with shin splints.
Who's a damp squib? Many of the youths look hopelessly out of their depth, but I'll let them off with that. Jamie Hamill, on the other hand, has been around for years and, as one of the squad's senior players, he needs to be performing better than this. Left-back, right-back, central midfield - he's looked terrible in all these positions. And that shaved head and beard combo is just criminal.
What'll happen between now and May? The League Cup semi-final at the start of February will be a welcome distraction, but the rest of the campaign promises to be purgatory for the club and their fans. Whether they can even beat Gretna's points total from 2007-08 - 13 points after a 10 point deduction - is is up for debate.
HIBERNIAN
***
What I said in pre-season: NINTH. "Where Hibernian finish depends entirely on when they dismiss Pat Fenlon and who they replace him with. Assuming that Rod Petrie will, as per previous coaches, wait too long to get rid of him, I think his replacement will have too little time to turn things around and get them into the top six."
How wrong was I? Thankfully for Hibs fans, the plug was pulled on Pat Fenlon before a top six place became an impossibility. Not only that, but they managed to tempt Terry Butcher down the A9; the former ICT boss has made an immediate impact, and has already dragged them into sixth place. And that's just with the unbalanced, mediocre bunch than Fenlon left him; imagine how good Hibs could be after a transfer window or two.
Who's on fire? Until Butcher arrived, absolutely no-one. Form has improved considerably since then, with Liam Craig perhaps the stand-out. The midfielder is showing the form - and goal return - that tempted Hibs to sign him from St. Johnstone.
Who's a damp squib? Did a team really once pay £1million for Rowan Vine? Bloody hell. His only achievement since joining from St Johnstone has been the growth of a beard you could hide a badger in. He offers as much of a goal threat to Hibs as I do. Vine will probably be punted in January, as will Kevin Thomson, who is a shadow of the player who started his career at Easter Road and appears to have been frozen out by Butcher in favour of more dynamic midfielders.
What'll happen between now and May? The way Butcher's going, Hibs will probably do the double and go on to win the 2014-15 Champions League. In seriousness, I expect a few new faces in January, and for them to achieve that top six finish.
INVERNESS CT
***
What I said in pre-season: SIXTH. "there have been plenty of arrivals, mainly from England's lower leagues, and if a few turn out to be rough diamonds then ICT could be very dangerous. Certainly, expectations of a second successive top six finish are quite reasonable."
How wrong was I? ICT's electric start to the season exposed me as a pessimist (who knew?), and, up until the managerial change, they appeared to be the best bet for second place. Then Terry Butcher was seduced by Hibs, and we replaced him with a manager that Hibs previously discarded. It may be coincidental that form has collapsed since Yogi Hughes arrived - Richie Foran got injured soon after - but I don't think it is. ICT now lie fifth, albeit with games in hand over the teams above them.
Who's on fire? If Billy Mckay hasn't scored, it's because he hasn't got any decent service. I'd go as far as to say that he is the best striker in Scottish football right now, and that includes the overpaid heffalumps at Celtic Park. Up until recently, it felt like everyone was playing well, with Foran, now converted to a central midfielder, having a real Indian Summer.
Who's a damp squib? Not surprisingly for a guy who is famous for winning a reality TV show, Ben Greenhalgh is all showboating and no substance. And what's the deal with that quiff? There's scarily little backup for Mckay, with Toby Agdestein (no goals in about a gazillion cameos as a late sub) and Curtis Allen (no appearances) having both departed after brief, underwhelming spells at the club.
What'll happen between now and May? You know that feeling Han Solo got when he saw the Death Star. Well, I'm Solo, and Hughes is the Death Star. If Mckay stays, we'll probably scrape enough results together to stay in the top half of the season - which will probably just mask our problems. But don't worry, I'm sure our new boss will bring in some new faces to improve things...such as Patrick Cregg, Burton O'Brien, Kevin McBride, Russell Latapy and Darryl Duffy...
L.
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