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Friday, November 8, 2013

Breaking down Butcher to Hibs

So, after 4 years and 281 days, Terry Butcher's successful union with Inverness Caledonian Thistle appears to be over, as the Englishman moves to take charge of Hibernian.

When Butcher pitched up in Inverness in January 2009, his managerial reputation was in the toilet after an underwhelming period coaching Sydney FC in Australia, and a nightmare spell at Brentford.  Nearly five years on, he's never been hotter property as a coach.

That's not to say that he had non-stop success in the Highlands.  He was unable to save Caley Thistle from relegation from the SPL, though the fact he came so close to doing so was a small miracle in itself.  It's never really been made public knowledge just how much of a mess Craig Brewster left behind; the repair job was remarkably swift.  His first year in the job was nothing special though - in fact, four years ago today, the club were only sixth in the First Division.  But something clearly clicked - they went unbeaten on league duty for the last 20 games of the season...though if Dundee hadn't collapsed so spectacularly they might still have missed out on promotion.

Their first season back in the SPL resulted in a decent seventh place finish; 2011/12 saw a step backwards as an injury-ravaged side stumbled to tenth in the table, but last year it all came together in spectacular fashion.  After a slow start (which had me, as recently as September 2012, questioning whether new blood was required in the dugout), ICT finished fourth in the league.  They then kept the momentum going into this season; at the time of writing they lie third, with a game in hand on second placed Aberdeen.

Most of the credit for this should, of course, go to the big man himself.  Butcher undoubtedly talks the talk - a more media-friendly manager in Scottish football there is not - and his charisma (along with his reputation from his playing days) is put to good use in attracting players to the Highlands.  He is a better tactician than he is given credit for, as shown by the evolution in playing style and formation that he's used over the last few seasons.  I've no idea where this idea of ICT being 'hammerthrowers' has come from; over the last twelve months in particular they have played some very sexy football indeed.

He has shown a good eye for a player too, for the most part.  Not many folk saw the potential in Billy McKay; even fewer felt a two year contract extension was warranted after a barren first season in Scotland.  I'm not sure many SPL managers would have tried to build a team around Andrew Shinnie either.  And the  signing of Jonny Hayes for our First Division campaign might have been the best of the lot.

That said, he has been given plenty of tools to help him succeed.  It's no coincidence that he has been more successful as a manager when he has had Maurice Malpas as his assistant.  It's probably a bit trite to describe the former Dundee United defender as the brains of the operation, but there is more than a ring of truth to it.  Butcher didn't have Malpas in tow at any of the clubs where he failed.  Another critical member of staff is goalkeeping coach and scout-extraordinaire Steve Marsella, the man primarily responsible for spotting Inverness' successful signings from England's lower leagues.  And, above all, Butcher has benefitted from the full support of the club from day one.  If the fans occasionally had gripes, the chairman never did.  Never was he under pressure from the board.  He was given the time and space to do things his own way, in a manner that seems increasingly rare at football clubs.

Caley Thistle have never had it so good, and neither, as a manager, has Terry.  He had a job for life at Inverness.  He also had a lovely house at Abriachan, near Loch Ness, and a football team that was unquestionably his.  On the other hand, it's fair to assume that he was beginning to itch for a new challenge.  The stadium is never more than half full unless Ross County or Celtic visit.  All the good football, and impressive victories made zero difference to that.  If there is one thing that will have attracted him to Hibs, it will be the prospect of serenading 15,000 fans in Easter Road, instead of 3,000 sweetie-rustlers at the Tulloch Caledonian Stadium.

Will he succeed at Hibs?  I can't say I'm confident that he will.  What worries me is that he is their sixth manager in just over seven years.  It feels like those who came before him - John Collins, Mixu Paatelainen, John Hughes, Colin Calderwood and Pat Fenlon - were all under extreme pressure to improve things quickly.  Both Calderwood and Fenlon effectively brought in brand new squads, such were the number of signings and departures.  Butcher will need time and patience to turn this around, but so did those before him.  They didn't get it.  Will he?  For a start, he's stuck with the squad he's got until January.  I could see him going back to Inverness to try and sign players, but most of their better ones are under contract and would command transfer fees that Hibs probably couldn't pay.  Still, Butcher has done more at Motherwell and Inverness than any of his five predecessors had done as manager before arriving at Easter Road.  He is better placed to succeed then any Hibs boss since Tony Mowbray left.

And where do Caley Thistle go from here?  It is likely that Malpas and Marsella are also on their way down the A9, though memories of Malpas' rotten spell as head honcho at Motherwell (and his subsequent failure as Swindon manager) always cast a shadow over the prospect of appointing him as Butcher's successor.  Kenny Cameron has proven himself an excellent chairman since taking over the role, but this will be his biggest test yet.  At this moment in time, it's not at all clear who the next manager of Inverness Caledonian Thistle will be.

What is clear is that there is plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth by the ICT support, who in general recognise that it probably doesn't get any better than Terry Butcher.  But then we thought the same when Steve Paterson left, and when John Robertson left, and when Craig Brewster left...well, the first time he left.  Yet we did all right in the end.

And, while there is considerable disappointment that Butcher left the Highlands for a club lower than us in the league, rather than waiting for a more prestigious job in England (or, perhaps, at Ibrox) to come up, most fans will choose to focus on all the good he has done for the club, and to see him off with grateful thanks, if not necessarily their full blessing.

They will also be keen to point out that, so far, not one of the men who has managed Inverness Caledonian Thistle - Sergei Baltacha, Steve Paterson, John Robertson, Craig Brewster, Charlie Christie, and Brewster again - went on to succeed as managers after they left the club.  Time will tell if Butcher will prove the exception to the rule.

L.


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