In this special blog, I preview the game from the ICT point of view, while the famous John Maxwell of County Tactics and Tell Him He's Pele kindly offers a Ross County outlook. Enjoy!
From the South side of the Kessock Bridge
If you haven't been following recent results, you'd have picked up your newspaper and noticed that Inverness are second in the league. So far, so good. But that doesn't tell the story of how ICT, who were so impressive in the early weeks of the season, have lost three of their last four in the league, including the last two - a 4-0 hammering at the hands of St Johnstone, followed by a 2-1 home loss to Partick Thistle. The latter match was, of course, overshadowed by cornergate and other officiating decisions (I have expunged a planned blog on the subject because I was at risk of libelling the officials involved), and the game was only lost as a result of a dreadful blunder by goalkeeper Dean Brill.
But in those last couple of games the performances have dipped well below the standard set in the opening two months of the campaign, when ICT topped the table. Inverness used the same starting eleven in their first eight league games; it's not a coincidence that they have stuttered after being forced to make changes. In Perth, they missed David Raven with a groin problem, though he returned last weekend. However, attacking midfielder Jamie Vincent injured his knee in the victory over Hibernian on 28 September. Scans showed a small fracture of his tibia bone and he won't play again before Christmas. On the face of it, the loss of Vincent, who played as the link between midfield and Billy McKay, doesn't look too crucial - he only has one goal this season, and that was a penalty. But his physical presence, his industry, and his uncanny knack to be in the right place to receive the ball after a headed clearance by an opposing centre-back are traits that his replacements have so far failed to replicate.
Against St. Johnstone, youngster Liam Polworth was used; he looked like a rabbit in the headlights. For the Partick game, Aaron Doran, Nick Ross and Ben Greenhalgh, all natural wide players, rotated positions. None of them looked comfortable in a more central role. All are tidy on the ball, but they are all lightweight compared to Vincent, which means they can't hold up the ball or win headers regularly. As a result, too many high balls are punted at Billy McKay, who won't win them against big defenders. If County force Caley Thistle to do more of this, then their chances of victory will exponentially increase.
So Terry Butcher's big decision for Friday is whether to stick with that eleven, or change it around again. Marley Watkins added a real spark as a substitute on Sunday, but he is yet another winger; if he was to be included (presumably at Greenhalgh's expense), then I'd expect more of the same problems from last time out. It's worth noting that Caley Thistle struggled almightily to keep the ball on the deck in their games at the Global Energy Stadium last season, partly due to the terrible playing surface, partly due to the crowded, tight County midfield, and partly due to the narrow pitch. I understand that there is actually some grass to play on this season, but the other factors are unchanged and this might be an occasion where a more direct style is required.
I'm not usually a fan of playing two up front, but it could be Toby Agdestein's time to shine. The Norwegian has been a perennial substitute since joining from Brighton, but he has height and strength. It would require a change in style, but for this occasion I think it might be a necessary alteration. In their two league visits to Dingwall last year, Caley Thistle failed to score, and in honesty created Sweet Fanny Adams. Certainly, more of the same will not suffice.
From the North side of the Kessock bridge (by John Maxwell)
It is difficult to establish exactly where Ross County stand going into this derby.
Historically, County have little to fear. Although Inverness Caledonian Thistle have won more derby games in Dingwall than County have, Terry Butcher has never managed his side in a win over the bridge in five attempts.
Of more relevance, County have been in poor form this season. The very beginning saw an experimental 5-4-1 formation back-fire, wholesale changes further back-fire, and then a more settled unit eke some mediocre performances. However, the team have looked good in convincing wins at home to St Mirren and Aberdeen (albeit less so against Hearts), so there is some scope for optimism.
There are significant doubts about Graham Carey's fitness leading into this match. Until his absence at Kilmarnock, the left sided midfielder had been an ever present in the team and has quickly established himself as not only a key player but a favourite of some supporters. His work ethic is improving since his previous time at St Mirren, but his game will always be based around the imperious technique with his left foot. Carey's set-piece delivery can arguably be covered, but his ability to cross from open play is peerless and undoutbedly County's most reliable option for creating chances within the box.
Without Carey, it is difficult to know where clear cut chances are going to come from. Since their ascension to the top flight, Ross County have relied heavily on goals from midfielders and particularly from strikes outside the penalty area. Ivan Sproule added a different dimension to the team: his inward diagonal runs from the flank were so often un-tracked, he was a crucial player in the team's relative success in the second half of last season. His form has tailed off significantly, however, and it is arguable that Darren Maatsen deserves a reprise to the starting XI sooner rather than later.
Ross County failed to have one of their strikers score against Caley Thistle last season and it would be a surprise if that changed this Friday. The lack of a goal threat up front extends to the observation that it is sometimes difficult to pick out Steven Ross in highlight reels from recent weeks. Although Ross offers mobility and can distract centre-backs just enough to give time for the central midfielders to advance, he is nowhere near being a consistent danger to the opposition.
Where does this leave Derek Adams's strategy going into the match? One criticism from most of last season's derby matches was that Terry Butcher had the upper hand on Adams in tactical terms: although Butcher rarely deviates from his first choice team when he doesn't have to, he hasn't been adverse to using reactive tactics to block County's play-making from midfield. For example, while dropping Richie Foran back into deep midfield from a more advanced position might be one of Caley Thistle's tactical themes this season, it was debuted in the Scottish Cup replay last season. Adams failed to come up with a solution to this and to other tactical patterns within the matches, instead focusing on his team's own style of play.
However, the last match of the season saw Adams surprise Butcher, with Stuart Kettlewell performing a man-marking role on Caley Thistle play-maker Andrew Shinnie. In the age of zonal marking, the occurence of a man-marking job in midfield is so rare at this level of competition that Butcher seemingly didn't figure out what to do to counter the move. Thus Shinnie was shadowed out of the match, Billy McKay was easily marshalled and a midfield containing Danny Devine lost control of the match. Adams eventually showed that he could mix up his tactics to great effect.
County have recently been lining up in a 4-4-1-1 position - a return to the First Division winning system - with left-winger Melvin de Leeuw playing behind the striker. The 1-0 home victory against Aberdeen showed that de Leew has the technique, movement and a deceptively strong heading ability to play between the lines of the opponent's mdifield and defence. However, that space will be particularly compressed among Caley Thistle's centre-backs, Foran and Ross Draper.
What might be more likely is the return to a 4-1-4-1/4-3-3 formation, with de Leeuw starting on the left in Carey's absence. That seems to be the most natural approach to this match, to this writer at least, for a number of reasons. Firstly, there would be a fitting assymetry between de Leew (who would have licence to drift infield and affect the playmaking) and either Sproule or Maatsen remaining high on the right flank. With Caley Thistle's attacking left-back Graeme Shinnie an important outlet to the team in open play, County's right-winger could pin Shinnie back. While David Raven has proved to be a considerably better all-round player than his initial form showed last season, County will be least concerned about letting him get forward out of the two full-backs, so de Leew's free role from the left strikes a balance in both County's attacking and defensive transitions. In summary, Ross County's lack of symmetry in style from their wingers would match positively against Caley Thistle's different kind of full-backs.
Secondly, reverting to the use of a dedicated holding midfielder (which under 20 player Marc Klok seems to be the heir to) would block the space that Aaron Doran enjoys dribbling into with the ball. In Andrew Shinnie's Absence, Doran has proved more of a goal threat from open play by cutting inside and attacking beyond his marking full-back's weak foot. Deploying Richard Brittain in the deepest mdifield position would better block off this kind of play.
Thirdly, using Brittain as the spare midfielder would allow a triangle to form in the middle of the pitch against Foran and Draper. There is a suspicion that just two of Ross County's central midfielders on their own would struggle to navigate around Caley Thistle's midfield base, but three versus two would tip the battle in County's favour. That would tempt one of Caley Thistle's attacking midfielders to drop short to make up the numbers, but as their more advanced players are typically wingers, whoever is volunteered to do so might find themselves out of their depth.
Ross County's big concern will be defending set-pieces. There are precious few players in the team who are particularly good at defending aerial challenges. Even after considering that County's centre-backs Scott Boyd and Brian McLean might mark Caley Thistle's better exponents of the headed goal (and that alone fails to inspire much public confidence), that still leaves the others to mark Draper, Josh Meekings and Billy McKay (who should never be underestimated with a bouncing ball in the penalty area). With Doran's in-swinging corners on top of the goal-keeper, it will be a strong performance to keep Caley Thistle out.
County could have the better of midfield possession on the day, but they will be relying on a piece of brilliance from de Leeuw, a central midfielder to break into the penalty area or a direct free-kick to break the stalemate. Caley Thistle, on the other hand, have more obvious and reliable routes for goalscoring and it is that which might prove the difference on Friday.
L.
This looks like so much fun!
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