Last season was supposed to be Scottish football's Armageddon.
Thankfully, it seems that the Four Horsemen failed to RSVP. The implosion of our national sport that was predicted by rather a lot of journalists and rather too many of the game's powerbrokers completely failed to happen - as did the "social unrest" that our esteemed SFA Chief Executive claimed would break out if a certain nameless Glasgow club ended up in the third division.
Given that 'Armageddon' led to my own team having their best ever season, I'm inclined to ask for more of the same, please.
That said, there is still a mild odour of doom hanging over our leagues, after Hearts' finances finally went terminal this summer. The fact that concrete offers have been made for the club - particularly from the fan-backed Foundation Of Hearts - is encouraging, but their survival depends on events in Lithuania regarding the parent company and the owners of Tynecastle; if that drags on and delays a sale, then the Jambos' situation may become unsalvageable. Meanwhile, it's only a few months since Dunfermline called in the dreaded administrators, though their situation is looking up. Who knows what might be in store for other Scottish clubs in these troubled times? There are so many saddled with outrageous debts that we may yet see a few others hit the buffers, but let's hope not; it would be nice if the focus this season was on the action on the pitch.
The summer has seen a change in acronyms - there is no longer an SPL or an SFL, just an SPFL. And of course, this means big change for the game in general...apart from the fact that the divisions still have the same name, and the same number of teams...and that the people who were in charge of the SPL are now in charge of the SPFL...and, for another year, there isn't a pyramid system in place...but still, it's a big change. Honest, Guv. The redistribution of money, for a start, will allow First Division sides enough money to sustain full-time football comfortably, even for those playing in front of three figure crowds (I'm looking at you, Hamilton Accies) - you can decide for yourself whether subsidizing these clubs to live beyond their means is wise or not. The other big difference compared to last season is, at last, the introduction of end of season playoffs involving the 11th placed top flight side and the second, third and fourth placed First Division teams. Whilst I'm delighted by this, it sadly hasn't as yet convinced any companies to put themselves forward as title sponsors for the new league - a disturbing circumstance given there are only a few weeks before it gets started.
This time last year, I confidently predicted that the SPL title was already a foregone conclusion, and that relegation probably was as well. I was proved right, and I think it's pretty fair to make a similar prediction ahead of this campaign. No-one has the quality or the depth in their squad to compete over nine months with a Celtic side who have such a resource advantage. Distracted by European endeavours, they may yet start more slowly than an anorexic at a three course meal, but another title is inevitable; the success of their season will be determined more by how successful their quest for a domestic treble is, and whether they can repeat last season's Champions League form.
At the other end, Hearts are favourites for the drop - quite right too, given their 15 point penalty and the fact that, at the time of writing, they have only two outfield players over 22. If, as expected, they are landed with a transfer embargo until January, it's hard to see them managing to overcome their sizeable handicap, especially if they end up flogging talented youngsters like Jason Holt to make ends meet.
As for the other ten teams, your guess is as good as mine. For the umpteenth year in a row, it seems like no-one has got stronger in the summer, but that each side has become weaker to varying degrees. The exception may be Aberdeen, where a lot of dead wood has been shifted, and they haven't really lost any talented players - if I was being cruel, I would suggest that they only had one, Niall McGinn, in the first place. It would be a catastrophe if the Dons missed the top six again...but how many times have I said that in the last few years?
Hibs were the other bottom six side that obviously underachieved last season, and their league form in 2013 gives cause for concern. Pat Fenlon has brought in a few reinforcements in the summer, but no-one who looks like producing even a fraction of the impact made by the departed Leigh Griffiths. Given he has got about a million central midfielders and barely any wingers, I have no idea what Fenlon is planning for the season ahead. As ever, they still have plenty of talent on paper...but, again, how many times have I said that in the last few years?
Of the sides who made the top six last time out, Inverness appear to have lost the fewest first team regulars, but will find it difficult to replace Andrew Shinnie. Ross County have lost a few important figures, but their four Dutch signings are intriguing. St. Johnstone will have to deal with the loss of manager Steve Lomas, and their two best midfield players, Liam Craig and Murray Davidson. Motherwell's squad has been gutted, but they've strengthened the defence with Stephen McManus and are on the brink of a real coup if they can convince James McFadden to stay. And it's all change at Dundee United, where Jackie McNamara is looking to put his stamp on the team.
McNamara's former club, newly-promoted Partick, are expected by most to be the team most likely to be overtaken by Hearts but, while the Maryhill Magyars are unlikely to emulate Ross County's efforts from a year ago, they will not struggle like Dundee either and are robust enough to survive. St. Mirren look strong in attack but weak in defence - will they play like the side that won the League Cup, or the side that finished second from bottom last season? Meanwhile, Kilmarnock look awfully vulnerable, having lost some good players and done very little business so far under new boss Allan Johnston...though that assessment will change dramatically if he manages to convince Andy Webster and Kris Boyd to play for the club next season.
Hopefully, I'll manage proper previews for the top flight clubs before the big kickoff on the first weekend of August. Forgive me for delaying them, but given there's plenty of transfer business to be done between now and then, the later I leave them the more accurate they will be (or, at least, the fewer excuses I will have for talking rubbish).
L.
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