Have Hibs lost their bottle?

Pat Fenlon had found the magic formula.

His first half-season at Easter Road just seemed to produce more of the same.  Hibernian's results didn't improve - in fact they seemed to get worse, with his first 19 league games producing only 3 wins.  Whilst the staggering ineptitude of Dunfermline ensured that the Hibees involved relegation, the apparent silver lining of a cup run only served to produce the season's nadir in a humiliating defeat at the hands of their city rivals.

But the start of the new campaign was the gorgonzola to last year's calcium carbonate.  An opening weekend thumping at Tannadice did not bode well, and when they fell behind to Hearts in the first half of the second game, I feared the worst.  But an equalizer from Leigh Griffiths seemed to spark the side, and that draw was the start of a run of results which seemed to establish Hibs as The Best Of The Rest.  Just like last year, everyone was focused on Leigh Griffiths...but not because of his petulance or, well, general 'ned'-ness.  The on-loan Wolves striker was scoring more frequently than Silvio Berlusconi on a viagra infusion.  New goalkeeper Ben Williams appeared to have broken the Hibernian Goalkeeper Curse which has afflicted every man between the sticks since Jim Leighton left the club, with help from the super-solid James McPake in front of him.  Other new signings like Ryan McGivern and Paul Cairney fitted in quickly, while winger David Wotherspoon looked like the best Scottish player in the SPL after Griffiths.

Even luck seemed to be going their way.  On a Friday night at Fir Park, Motherwell had a goal wrongly chalked off at 1-0 down, and conceded two penalties - one was contentious, the other scandalous.  Somehow, the visitors managed to come away with a 4-0 win.  After following it up with two more wins, they found themselves top of the SPL.  Even though Celtic were two points behind with a game in hand, it was still impressive.  It felt like Fenlon had come back from his summer holiday with a bouquet of four-leaf clovers and a caged leprechaun.

Six weeks later, Hibs are not top.  They are fourth.  They have managed only 3 points from the last 5 league games.  It all started when they fell victim to Dundee's "we only beat teams from Edinburgh" policy (their other two league wins both came against Hearts).  If the subsequent defeat to Aberdeen was unfortunate - the Dons defence was inspired, while Jamie Langfield just had one of those days goalkeepers have now and again - that was cancelled out by a smash-and-grab win in Perth which came after a dominant St. Johnstone spurned a penalty with the game still goalless.  The dogged cup win over Hearts, in a match so bad that neither team should have been allowed to progress to the next round, perhaps suggested that everything was rosy again; anyone who watched Fenlon's side get annihilated in Inverness the following weekend would tell you the opposite.  And, to cap it all, last Saturday Hibernian blew a 2-0 lead at Easter Road against Motherwell, with Bob McHugh's late winner condemning the home side to a fourth defeat in five in the SPL.

Initially I blamed the bad form on injuries.  McPake tweaked his back, and the defence, a rock with him in the centre, crumbled.  With Tim Clancy also out, Fenlon had to play Lewis Stevenson as a full-back, and he also had to play Alan Maybury, who should be right-back-in-the-dressing-room, not right-back.  Without McPake to take the lead, Paul Hanlon has lost his way, as anyone who saw his hideous attempts at marking Inverness players will tell you.  But McPake's return to the team against Motherwell did a fat lot of good - the team still lost and the defender was sent off late on, the result of a pointless second yellow card that displayed an alarming lack of discipline from the club captain.

It's alarming because it reminds me greatly of last season's Hibs, and the Hibs of the season before that, and the...oh, you get the picture.  Suddenly, they look like a mess.  The heads go down as soon as they concede.  The midfield is devoid of bite (though the return of another absentee, Gary Deegan, might rectify that).  The only thing missing is some v-signs from Leigh Griffiths.

But even the star striker has gone off the boil.  Perhaps it was inevitable after 13 goals in 13 league outings that the former Livi and Dundee man would hit a bad patch.  However, it seems to have coincided with confirmation from Wolves that his parent club want to sell him on in January, having apparently decided he isn't good enough for The Championship, but not in their interest to farm him out.  They want a fee, but Hibs chief exec Rod Petrie has been talking about cutting budgets, not buying players.  Unless The Tache takes his wallet out, Griffiths is offski in less than a month.  It seems reasonable to speculate that this has affected his motivation a bit.

So, is this just a blip, or was the good start to the season just a fluke?

At the moment, logic dictates we should assume the former to be more likely than the latter.  Hibs played some good football earlier this season, especially at home.  With the squad coming back to full strength, Fenlon must be confident that the results will come.  The last four games before the winter break should give us a good idea of where Hibs are right now - Kilmarnock away, Ross County at home, Celtic at home and Hearts away.  Anything from the third of those games is a bonus, and anything but a win against County will be considered a letdown by the home fans, but the results in the two away games will give us a marker regarding whether they are likely to be embroiled in the battle for second place.

I'm not saying its panic stations for Fenlon and Hibernian yet.  There are enough quality players available to him; there are also considerably fewer squad members with big egos and bad attitudes to poison the rest of the team than in previous years.  But the last few weeks have produced a few warning signs, signs we have seen before many a time at Easter Road.

L.