"It is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is perhaps the end of the beginning."
So spake Winston Churchill in November 1942. Everyone assumes he was referring to the battle of El Alamein, but might he have actually been talking about the start of the 2012-13 SPL season?
Ok, the historians are probably correct on this one, but the quote itself makes sense in the context of the current campaign. Aside from a couple of Dundee United games still to be played (against Celtic and Motherwell), everybody has now played everybody once, and so we have a pretty good idea of who is hot...and who is not.
And you only have to look at the table to see that it is Celtic who are hot (for they lie top, as every single person in the whole world predicted before the season started) and Dundee who are not.
Except Celtic - whisper it - have only been great in fits and starts. Only once since the 1998-99 season, when Jo Venglos was manager, have they had fewer points after ten games...and that was last season, when the tenth game saw that remarkable comeback from three goals down at Rugby Park that probably saved Neil Lennon from the sack. Kilmarnock got their revenge at the weekend with an unlikely victory at Parkhead, while the Bhoys have been held to draws in Dingwall (where they required an injury time equalizer) and at home to Hibs, and fell to defeat at St. Johnstone. But in other games they have looked very impressive, especially on the European stage. So will the real Celtic please stand up?
Of course, Celtic may not be firing on all cylinders, but they currently have a two point advantage over the chasing pack, and with the aforementioned game in hand. It's not always been impressive, but so far it has certainly been adequate. They still have the league's best players, with powerhouse Kenyan Victor Wanyama the early favourite for Player of the Year. Goalkeeper Fraser Forster has done enough to earn an England call-up, and Gary Hooper remains the most lethal finisher north of Carlisle.
As for Dundee? Well, I thoroughly dissected them a few weeks ago - almost as thoroughly as opponents have dissected their defence. To cut a long story short, they are completely and utterly pants. They were relegation favourites from the start, but nobody expected them to be as bad as this. They have only one win, four points and four goals. They are already eight points adrift of the next worst team. And things would be even worse but for some outstanding performances from veteran keeper Rab Douglas. Even this early in the campaign, relegation looks inevitable; Jesus might have been able to turn water into wine, but I doubt even he could keep the Dark Blues in the SPL.
The rest of the league is so close that you could just about throw a dishcloth over the other ten teams. Six points separate second from eleventh. Anyone can beat anyone. But some clubs will be happier about that than others.
The Highland teams, for a start, will be pretty satisfied with how things are going. Many - including me - tipped my own Inverness to struggle, and a failure to win any of the opening seven games seemed to back that up, but three straight victories (including one over their neighbours) have seen them rocket up the standings into fifth place. Not only that, but they have metamorphosed into an attacking, entertaining team - 23 goals scored, 19 conceded. Yes, I'm as shocked as you are.
Ross County, in contrast, have lived up to pre-season expectations that they would be awkward opponents, difficult to beat and capable of grinding out results. They are ninth, but only three points adrift of their rivals. The defence has had some dodgy moments, such as shipping five goals in Paisley but I've been pleasantly surprised at how well the likes of Iain Vigurs and Stuart Kettlewell have made the step up. Involvement in a relegation battle would require not only a Lazarus-like recovery from Dundee but a Barings Bank-like collapse from either of these teams.
Aberdeen fans, meanwhile, haven't been this happy since a truck containing several dozen sheep crashed and overturned on Union Street. We all know that Craig Brown teams are solid at the back and hard to break down, but the summer signings of Jonny Hayes and Niall McGinn, plus the emergence of Ryan Fraser, give him a creative triumvirate that has scythed through many a defence this season. Celtic outcast McGinn has been the best SPL player outside Glasgow this season. If Scott Vernon hadn't spurned a gazillion goalscoring chances, the Dons might have been doing even better than their current third place. Their only defeat so far came on opening day, courtesy of a late blunder at Celtic Park by Clangers Langfield. It's looking rosy at Pittodrie.
But the biggest turnaround has come at Easter Road, where Hibernian, riding the superb form of Leigh Griffiths (who has managed to go three whole months without getting suspended for something!) and David Wotherspoon, have gone from second from bottom last year to second from top. Add in a goalkeeper (Ben Williams) who appears to have largely avoided the curse that traditionally causes otherwise competent shot-stoppers to turn into hapless clowns when playing for the Hibees, and an almost entirely revamped defence, and Pat Fenlon's side look very good indeed. As long as Griffiths keeps out of harms way - and out of trouble - it's not unreasonable to believe that they will remain at the right end of the table indefinitely.
The above sides are all making strides in the right direction; others appear to have regressed. Dundee United were favoured by many to be "the best of the rest", and that looked like a solid prediction when they won their first two games of the season...but they only registered their third victory seven matches later, at St. Mirren on Saturday. They have two games in hand on the sides above them, but their current tenth place is a real disappointment. What will concern Arabs is that it only took an injury to a single important player - Gary Mackay-Steven - for the wheels to fall off. Strikers Jon Daly and Johnny Russell have shown only snippets of their quality, and even now manager Peter Houston doesn't seem to know who his best back four are. He'll hope the return from injury of Mackay-Steven and the signing of Rudi Skacel will galvanise the side.
Skacel's former side, Hearts, are only seventh and have failed to push on from last season's Scottish Cup win. New boss John McGlynn's direct style and reliance on unproven youngsters has led to remarkable inconsistency (thumped at home by Kilmarnock, yet impressive victors at Tannadice, for example), although the club's recurrent problems paying wages on time cannot possibly be helping. Given the trigger-happy reputation of Vladimir Romanov, you can't help worrying for McGlynn's job security, though teenager Calum Paterson looks like a real talent. The Jambos' impressive Europa League performances against Liverpool seem a long time ago.
Motherwell's European performances were far less memorable than those of the Jambos, but they at least started the domestic season well...then they blew a 3-1 lead at Pittodrie. Since then, Michael Higdon's goals dried up, they were beaten convincingly by Celtic in the league and Rangers in the league cup, and Stuart McCall's side have slumped -twelve points from the first six games, one from the last four. The Steelmen have enough quality to bounce back, but a repeat of last season's top three finish looks unlikely right now.
St. Mirren have also disappointed a bit, after finishing last season well. When the slick passing gets going they can either be very very good; when it doesn't they are more rancid than a turd sandwich. The Buddies haven't been helped by the loss of Darren McGregor to another bad injury. Eleventh place suggests they are a lot worse than they actually are, and they are dangerous on the attack with Steven Thompson, Lewis Guy and Paul McGowan, but they have really struggled at the back - only Dundee have conceded more. It wouldn't be surprising if they finished a bit higher, but they don't look like a top six side.
Kilmarnock sometimes do look like a top six team - but, just like last season, Kenny Shiels' side look incapable of stringing two good results together. There are plenty of positives for the Rugby Park side, with midfielder Liam Kelly fulfilling his potential and striker Cillian Sheridan proving a sensational signing. With Cammy Bell and Jeroen Tesselaar back from injury and Momo Sissoko's return to the club, maybe the defence will be tighter and Killie will head onwards and upwards. Or maybe not.
And lastly we have St. Johnstone, who having managed to make it into the top half last season, are well on course to repeat the feat. A rotten start (2 points from 5 games) was followed by a surprise win over Celtic which sparked a run of five straight wins. Just like last year, Steve Lomas has strikers who can score goals, and he appears to have got the Jekyll version of striker Gregory Tade playing at the moment. They've not been flashy, but they have been effective, and they trail Hibs and Aberdeen only by goal difference. There's enough depth on the bench to suggest that the Perth side will repeat last season's top six finish, though I'm not convinced they will be good enough for a podium place.
So that's the state of play. Only twenty-seven games to go, then. And plenty of time for me to be proven spectacularly wrong...again...
L.
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