Destination Brazil?

When my father was my age, Scotland had been knocked out of three consecutive World Cups on goal difference.  They would qualify for three of the next four, and for two European Championships as well during that period.  But by the time the 2014 World Cup kicks off in Brazil, it will have been sixteen years since Scotland qualified for a major football tournament.  That's more than half the time I've been alive.

At any World Cup or European Championships, you're bound to see the odd saltire, brought along and hung in a stadium by some hardy fans who are just along to watch some good football and enjoy the show.  But the Tartan Army haven't been invited en masse to one of the big events since 1998 in France.  It's still depressing to think that the last game Scotland played in a major tournament involved Jim Leighton letting in a goal at his near post, and a toothless Craig Burley getting sent off for a challenge on a Moroccan that was not so much a tackle as grievous bodily harm.

In that time, we have had a few proud moments - beating Holland at home, and defeating the French twice (including THAT McFadden goal) come to mind - but those have been largely cancelled out by humiliating results against the likes of the Faroe Islands and Norway, and the problems off-the-field (Barry Ferguson, Allan McGregor, Kris Boyd, Steven Fletcher).

So, with the start of another qualifying campaign on the horizon, what are the chances that Scotland will be in South America in two summers' time, and the fans partying with bikini-clad Brazilian babes on the Copacabana?

Well, for a start, we could have done better in terms of the group.  Because we came third in a pretty mediocre Euro 2008 qualifying section (bar Holland, of course) and third in a pretty mediocre 2010 World Cup qualifying group (apart from the Spanish) - we've paid the price in terms of seeding.  The group includes Belgium, Serbia and Croatia - all teams who have qualified for major tournaments more recently.  We've not managed to pick up a minnow either (not that Liechtenstein proved easy pickings) - instead we've got awkward opponents in Macedonia and Wales.

On the bright side, there's not an overwhelming group favourite.  Stranger things have happened than Scotland topping this group.  However, stranger things have also happened than us finishing rock bottom of it.

I don't honestly feel Scotland are hugely inferior to the Serbs, who are a young team being rebuilt by a new coach, whilst the Croats have useful forwards and midfielders but are vulnerable at the back.  The Belgians are easily the best team on paper - a midfield of Hazard, Fellaini, Witsel and Dembele is worth more than £75million in transfer fees - but in recent years their quality has been overshadowed by egos and infighting.  So there's probably not a lot to choose between these four sides, and the outcome of the group may depend on who gets the lucky breaks, or on who gets their tactics right on the big day.

And that allows me to segue straight onto the subject of our national team manager.

We start off with two home games, against Serbia on Saturday and Macedonia on Tuesday.  We cannot afford a slow start.  We only have ten matches, and there's not much time for catching up if we fall behind early.  I think four points is the absolute minimum; any less, and the task becomes monumentally difficult.

My worry is that Levein started the last campaign with a safety-first attitude, playing defensive tactics against a vastly inferior Lithuania team away from home, and then (after narrowly avoiding a catastrophe against Liechtenstein thanks to seven minutes of injury time) producing the infamous 4-6-0 against the Czechs.  We were very much left on the back foot and never recovered.  But he must be mulling over whether caution and trying to avoid defeat is the best option against Serbia, especially as he will know that defeat would leave his jacket on a very shoogly peg.

There is, of course, a £12 million elephant in the room.  For Levein continues to refuse to pick Steven Fletcher, despite a dearth of options at centre-forward and despite Fletcher coming up with a brace in his league debut for Sunderland.  Instead the boss will go with Kenny Miller once more up front - despite the fact he is nearly 33 and now playing in MLS with Vancouver Whitecaps - and Jordan Rhodes as his backup.  It remains a staggering decision - can you imagine a Wales manager refusing to play Gareth Bale or Aaron Ramsay?  But with Scotland's other Fletcher - Darren - still working his way back from illness, the team are devoid of their two best players.  And Scott Brown's ongoing chronic problems cause him to miss out, too.

To cap it all, we go into the first match with major problems defensively - Phil Bardsley and Steven Whittaker were already unavailable, and Danny Fox and Russell Martin have both withdrawn injured.  Coupled with the fact that (at the time of writing) Charlie Mulgrew is a major doubt, Alan Hutton - frozen out at Aston Villa - and the uncapped Paul Dixon are the only full-backs in the squad.  Rumour has it that Levein wants to use Gary Caldwell in a defensive midfield role (why oh why is the in-form James McArthur not even in the squad?!), so we have the sobering prospect of Christophe Berra and Andy Webster as centre-backs.  You think that's bad?  Berra's partner is due to give birth any day now; if she pops on Saturday morning Berra is likely to be replaced by Grant Hanley.  Dear god....

For quality, Scotland will be dependent on the one area where we have depth, attacking midfielders - of whom Levein has, curiously, called up eight.  With several in excellent form - especially James Morrison, Robert Snodgrass and Shaun Maloney - I'd hope he'd gamble on using three behind Miller, with Caldwell and either Charlie Adam or Graham Dorrans behind them.  Of course, I'd rather have Caldwell in defence, though I never thought I'd see the day that I would believe that.

To be honest, I have zero faith in Levein, and haven't since the Prague fiasco.  I suspect he will come up with some tactical 'masterstroke' that will leave us impotent once more.  We don't have a brilliant squad, especially depth-wise, so the manager's role in making the team greater than the sum of their parts is critical.  Alex McLeish and Walter Smith managed it. George Burley certainly didn't.  Craig Levein has provided no evidence so far to show that he can do it.

I'd love to be proven wrong, honestly.  I don't want Scotland to fail.  But I strongly believe that, after Tuesday, we will have three points or fewer on the board, that our chances of World Cup qualification will be almost irreparably damaged, and there will be a lot more folk calling for a change of national coach than just me.

L.