Which SPL clubs could go under?

There's been a lot of speculation and conjecture recently about how the Rangers fiasco might cause other SPL clubs to hit the wall, in a sort of domino effect.  So here's some more speculation and conjecture...

I've done my best using google and other searches online (I know it's amateur, but it's still more research than the Daily Record does) and here's my take on each of the 12 Premier League teams - including the new boys - and whether they are vulnerable or not.  Feel free to correct me if I'm completely wrong.


ABERDEEN - debt £13 million as of June 2011 (£10.8 million to the bank)

Aberdeen fans often criticize chairman Stewart Milne for not bankrolling the club to a greater tune - the playing squad has deteriorated in quality considerably over the last five years, and Pittodrie looks like it'll fall apart at any moment.  Milne, however, claimed last year that he covers shortfalls of £60,000 a month.  The club are gambling on rejuvenating their fortunes with a new stadium at Loirston Loch, which will be mostly funded by selling Pittodrie for housing development; however the plan has been delayed by a year, and the earliest the Dons will be playing there is 2014.  Whilst Milne appears to run a tight ship, and you'd like to think that if Aberdeen did run into trouble they would be rescued by some of the rich Oil folk in the North East, they are perhaps more vulnerable than you would expect.

CELTIC - debt £11.6 million as of end of 2011 (£7 million to the bank)

Celtic managed to reduce bank debt in the second half of last year by £2 million, though the club barely made a profit in that period.  But they appear prudently run and whilst they are likely to affected the most in absolute terms by the departure of Rangers from the SPL, qualification for the Champions League would surely make up the deficit...and Neil Lennon's side contain plenty of players who could command impressive fees if cash was needed.  It's hard to see the Bhoys ending up in any trouble.

DUNDEE - no debt as of February 2012

Surely, Dundee couldn't suffer the ignominy of a third administration?  Nah, probably not. For a start, they will have budgeted for the first division so won't be suffering in the same way as other SPL teams.  A statement in February claimed the club had no debt to banks or the taxman and had paid all trade creditors.  Finally, they appear to be on a firm financial footing...just in time to take advantage of the difficulties of others!
DUNDEE UNITED - debt £6.5 million as of end of 2011 (£5.4 million to the bank)

Wowsers.  Concerns over the Arabs' finances had completely passed me by - but in February it was revealed that United were behind on loan repayments, and at that time were supposed to lose their overdraft facility at the end of June.  Whilst the total debt is less than some of their contemporaries, they appear to be struggling to service it.  In 2011 their revenues fell 14% and they made a loss of £500,000 - not good.  Manager Peter Houston has already said he won't be signing anyone else this summer, and I would expect the club to be very open to offers for starlets Johnny Russell and Gary Mackay-Steven.  Hopefully the banks are being more reasonable and chairman Stephen Thompson is able to inject some cash, but if not there could be trouble...

HEARTS - debt £24 million as of end of 2011 (how much is to the bank?)

It's impossible to be sure of exactly how stable or otherwise Hearts are...and one suspects Vladimir Romanov would have it no other way.  Last year they claimed to have made a profit and reduced their debt by £12 million - but this may be down to Romanov moving it to another of his companies.  Certainly the clubs difficulty paying wages on time last season raises concerns, and the playing budget appears to have been cut drastically this summer with several high earners offski.  In truth, the viability of Hearts depends entirely on Romanov's own whims.

HIBERNIAN - debt £5.9 million as of July 2011 (how much is to the bank?)

Rod Petrie may be dodgy at appointing managers, but the Hibs chairman has a reputation for running the club prudently.  Last year was the first time they had run a loss in seven years, and a significant proportion of that will have been down to player and management turnover.  I understand they had £2 million in the bank as of last summer, so it would seem they are a long way away from danger...though this is conjecture as I was unable to read last year's Annual Report.

INVERNESS - total debt unclear but minimal (no bank debt) as of December 2011

Word in the Highlands is that chairman Kenny Cameron's ill-timed criticism of the SFL vote on Rangers was actually an attempt to cajole his fellow shareholders into dipping into their pockets.  Indeed, in the last few months there has been a decent cash injection into the club by a group of ex-pats with Highland connections, which was originally to improve the squad but will now address any shortfall.  Inverness hardly run on an excessive budget as it is and their position, for all their bluster, is, as Cameron put it a few days later, "very far from being immediately threatening".

KILMARNOCK - debt £9.7 million as of May 2011 (£8.6 million to the bank)
There's good reason why Killie always crop up when there is talk of clubs at risk of administration - even though they have dropped their debt from a peak of £11 million a few years back and actually made an operating profit in 2010-11.  But £6 million of their debt is linked to their Park Hotel project which cost £6 million to build in 2002 and, presumably, has not made any money since that period.  Killie have also had a nice cash boost from selling three stands of Rugby Park to an Old Firm team on title-winning day the last two seasons - they are unlikely to be third time lucky.  If Lloyds get tough on the debt, chairman Michael Johnston is in up to his neck.  They better hope than talk of fan boycotts is unfounded...

MOTHERWELL - debt £340,000 as of May 2011 (no bank debt)

Considering the club has come off an excellent league campaign and is looking forward to a shot at the Champions League qualifiers, it is striking how negative the noises coming out of Fir Park are.  The club expects losses for 2011-12 to total around £500,000. A club statement at the end of June said “It is clear that, if we are unable to replace significant amounts of income lost under either scenario, the club could be facing an insolvency event” - though this was part of a document submitted to the Well Society fans group that may have been designed to try and convince fans to back the Rangers newco (it didn't work).  The Steelmen have also been very quiet in the transfer market this summer too.  But they have no bank debt and their only creditor is majority shareholder John Boyle, who previously wrote off £8 million of debt after the club completed their hideous administration process. It's not really clear if Motherwell really are in any danger.

ROSS COUNTY - total debt unclear

Last year's first division champions often make a big deal of how they spend within their means, but in truth they can rely on local businessman and multimillionaire (a real one, not like Craig Whyte) Roy McGregor to bail them out if they are in any difficulties.  Because of that, I would argue that they are probably the SPL club in the best position financially at the moment.
ST JOHNSTONE - no debt as of July 2011

On the one hand, Saintees are overdraft-free and have been for a number of years, and are another club often cited as 'well-run', tthough on the other hand they suffered losses of £200,000 in 2010-11.  It was still surprising to hear chairman Steve Brown tell Sky Sports News on Thursday that "We can't rule out administration."  That said, I have wondered on occasion how the Perth side sustained such a decent squad on such meagre attendances.  Considering boss Steve Lomas has been bullish about further signings ahead of their Europa League attendances, you'd think they are unlikely to be at immediate risk...right?

ST MIRREN - debt £20,000 as of November 2011 (no bank debt)

St. Mirren's crippling debts from the last decade disappeared when they sold Love Street to Tesco, which put them on a solid financial footing up till now.  However, the planned takeover of the Buddies by the fans group '10000 Hours' has been put on hold as the club look to evaluate what damage the Rangers affair will do to them - and current chairman Stewart Gilmour has painted a bleak picture, with talk of redundancies and claiming there will be no further additions to the squad this summer.  But that is at a contrast to the fact the club practically broke even in 2010-11.  Further delay in the takeover will not help matters, however.

L.