Dreadful Dunfermline and Hapless Hibs in the two horse relegation race

Caley Thistle's 1-0 win at Pittodrie at the weekend was as unexpected as it was welcome. After seven games without a win, and some pretty abject recent performances, confidence was not high in the support. But an early Gregory Tade goal, coupled with an abysmal Aberdeen performance meant that run came to an end, even though Inverness played 35 minutes with ten men.

It wasn't just an important result in terms of stopping the rot. Inverness may only be tenth in the table, but the gap between us and the drop zone increased to 11 points, with only seven matches (plus ICT's game in hand against St Johnstone on Wednesday) to go. So, realistically, it means that Terry Butcher's side are pretty much guaranteed SPL status next year, and confirms what most have suspected for a few months now - the relegation battle is a two horse race, between Dunfermline and Hibernian.

I've discussed both on the blog on recent months - mainly under the pre-text that Hibs are woefully underachieving, and that Dunfermline were woefully underprepared for the SPL on promotion to the top flight last summer. But, as we enter the final few furlongs, the Hibees have only a three point advantage. They certainly don't have much momentum - only two wins and just nine points from fifteen league games under Pat Fenlon, who replaced Colin Calderwood in November. Dunfermline's results haven't exactly been great - only one win in eighteen in the league, and no SPL victories at East End Park all season - and it wasn't all that surprising that boss Jim McIntyre was given the heave-ho a couple of weeks ago.

McIntyre's successor is former Hearts boss Jim Jefferies - an experienced manager, no doubt, but, as my dad put it, "He's not exactly the messiah, is he?" Jefferies is best known down south for failing to keep Bradford City in the Premier League, but his hands were tied there by lack of cash and a lousy squad. More recently, he left Kilmarnock in 2010 when the team were heading for a relegation battle, then popped at as Vladimir Romanov's latest Tynecastle stooge a fortnight later. Lasting 18 months at Hearts counts, I suppose, as a reasonably successful tenure.

Frankly there weren't many other options available, and Dunfermline needed a new manager. The question is whether Jefferies can give them even a brief bounce. Yesterday, while researching this blog, I texted an old uni friend, Jamie Donald, a journalist by trade, and a Dunfermline fan by cruel, twisted fate, for his opinion. Expecting a few lines slagging off Andrew Barrowman (I've had a lot of texts like that from him this year), I instead got this rather impressive essay:

Where to start? I think when we won promotion and our marquee signings were Andy 'no goals' Barrowman and Kevin 'no knee' Rutkiewicz, most of us were expecting to be in this situation at this stage. We're trailing the other SPL clubs in so many areas - average gate, wage budget, squad quality and depth - that it's no surprise we're trailing them in points as well.

When we talked about teams we thought might be relegated ahead of us, Hibs weren't really mentioned - but even though I've spent the past six months writing them off as relegation candidates, they keep continuing to amaze with their capacity for implosion. However, if the general consensus among neutral observers is that Hibs can't play any worse, the fear among Pars fans is that, with a squad full of first division players and SPL dropouts, we simply can't play any better.

In a way it's amazing that we're still in it- if we go a whole season without winning at home (a distinct possibility) and still stay up (an unlikely, but my no means implausible scenario) it would surely be some sort of record. And as poor as we've been, we're only three points behind, with the impetus provided by an experienced manager, and chasing a team of chronic underachievers who, if the papers are to be believed, are in turmoil...I think it's on!

That's the crux of it, really. Dunfermline should be dead and buried. But, despite months of scottish fans saying to each other that 'Hibs are bound to turn it around sooner or later', there is still no sign of it happening. The Easter Road side have the better players, at least on paper, but - even though the stories of Leigh Griffiths headbutting his coach turned about to be complete b******s - there is still a complete dearth of team spirit. A complete overhaul of the back four in January hasn't stopped them haemorrhaging goals. Their main goal threat, Garry O'Connor, has been demoted to the bench in recent weeks due to his rotten form (whether this is the cause, or the result, of him boasting a grossly expanded waist line is unclear to me), and no-one is filling the void.

So the Pars are still in with a shout. Their squad, on paper, is hugely inferior. They can't win at home - not yet, anyway. But they have a new manager. They have a squad which at least boasts some experience - the likes of Gary Mason, Mark Kerr and Martin Hardie should at least be up for a scrap. The bookies certainly don't give them much of a chance - at the time of writing they are 6 to 1 on to plummet through the trapdoor. But the prospect of Hibernian playing in the first division next season is not quite as unthinkable as it used to be...

L.