It seems like only a couple of years since Aberdeen and Hibernian were last in this situation - an underwhelming season, new managers, a huge rebuilding job and overhauling of the playing squad required this summer.
Wait a minute - it is only a couple of years. Flashback to May 2009; Aberdeen forced out Jimmy Calderwood despite the fact that the perma-tanned tweedle-dee lookalike had guided the team to five consecutive top six finishes, amid claims, particularly from the supporters, that the club had gone stale. Hibernian, meanwhile, terminated the 18 month reign of Mixu Paatelainen, despite having finished sixth - big Mixu might have had success at Cowdenbeath and in Finnish football, but he was clearly out of his depth at SPL level.
I wonder whether Hibs chairman Rod Petrie lay awake at night during this season, thinking of what Mixu accomplished at Kilmarnock (Jesus might have fed five thousand with five loaves and two fish, but I strongly doubt he could have got 18 goals out of Connor Sammon by January) and wishing that maybe he shouldn't have pulled the trigger so hastily? It had looked like a shrewd move for the first six months, with the side starting the 2009-10 season with a bang under ex-Falkirk boss John Hughes, but the wheels fell off spectacularly in the second half of the campaign; when Hughes got his P45 in October 2010, he had won just four of his last 28 games in charge.
The only surprise about Hughes' exit was that it came before that of Mark McGhee at Pittodrie. McGhee was supposed to take Aberdeen to the next level, whatever the heck that means - in the end he did a good job of trying to take them to the level below. Whilst the nucleus of Calderwood's squad disintegrated faster than the Italian army in 1941, their replacements were, to diplomatically put it, not up to the required standard. Take, for example, Jerel Ifil, the centre-back signed from Swindon who appeared to apply more attention to his afro than his defensive duties.
The Dons finished a lowly ninth last time around, and with the quality of football as turgid as the results McGhee started this season under pressure. Any remaining credibility sunk without trace after he agreed a transfer-deadline day loan swap with Rangers, picking up Lithuanian forward Andrius Velicka in exchange for full-back Ricky Foster. Foster went on to be a solid, unspectacular squad player at Ibrox who even started a few Champions' League games; Velicka started only one game and scored only one goal; it transpired his knee was so dodgy that he couldn't train on the club's artificial training pitch.
Unsurprisingly, he was away by January, a month after Craig Brown had left Motherwell to take over at Pittodrie, and two months after a 9-0 humiliation at Celtic which left McGhee a lame duck. Whilst Brown oversaw a bounce in form, it transpired to be of the "dead cat" variety - at the season's end his 22 league games had produced an unremarkable 28 points. To cap it all, his captain, Paul Hartley, has announced his retirement, while defender Zander Diamond is likely to leave for Hearts and winger Sone Aluko and exciting forward Chris Maguire could move as well. Aberdeen have almost no experience in their squad for next season, bar ex-Colchester striker Scott Vernon, and they have no cash to bring it in. Yet attendances have slumped and Pittodrie has all the atmosphere of a morgue on matchdays. Brown's task is an unenviable one.
At least Brown got some sort of upturn in form when he was appointed; Hughes's successor at Easter Road, Colin Calderwood, looked like a solid appointment on paper having done a solid job at Nottingham Forest and been a coach at Newcastle but, aside from a shock 3-0 win away to Rangers, the first three months were a nightmare. By the time Hibs were shunted out of the cup by Ayr United, the vultures were not only circling, but licking their lips and tying napkins around their necks. Luckily for Calderwood, something finally clicked on the pitch and his side won five straight league games from the start of February, pulling them away from a relegation battle.
But since then it's unclicked again, with only one win in the last ten games of the season. Calderwood has bought himself some time by having shown in January that he has an eye for a player, with young Icelandic midfielder Victor Palsson and journeyman forward Akpo Sodje having looked shrewd buys. But Derek Riordan is set to skedaddle and there's no guarantee the likes of Liam Miller will stay either. And the club have already announced twelve departures from their first team squad.
So expect lots of new faces at these two clubs over the post-season. The goal is clear; anything other than being an established top six side is unacceptable. But they said that two years ago as well; what price that, in the summer of 2013, both teams will have gone back to the drawing board once more?
ABERDEEN
League: 9th, 38 pts
League Cup: semi final
Scottish Cup: semi final
Star man: Chris Maguire - he finally began to fulfil his potential this season. If he leaves Pittodrie expect to see him in the Championship.
Waste of space: Andrius Velicka - not just because he was unfit and goalshy, but because the Dons traded away a good defender in exchange
Confirmed first team departures: Myles Anderson, Nick Blackman, Paul Hartley, Mark Howard, Dean Jarvis, David McNamee, Nikola Vujadinovic, Derek Young
Other likely departures: Sone Aluko, Zander Diamond, Steven Smith
Needs for next season: Pretty much everywhere except midfield, but especially
HIBERNIAN
League: 10th, 37pts
League Cup: third round
Scottish Cup: fourth round
Europa League: third qualifying round
Star player: Derek Riordan - he might be a lazy bum, but when he can be bothered he is one of the most potent players in the country.
Waste of space: Colin Nish - the big forward's confidence has been destroyed by the supporters, and he offered no threat at all this season.
Confirmed first team departures: Kurtis Byrne, Darryl Duffy, Kevin McBride, Kevin McCann, Colin Nish, John Rankin, Graeme Smith, Steven Thicot, Valdas Trakys
Other likely departures: Liam Miller, Derek Riordan, Ricardo Vaz Te
Needs for next season: At least two new forwards, plus some creative midfield players and a new centre-back.
L.
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