This is how I see the first division finishing -
1. Dundee
2. Dunfermline
3. Falkirk
4. Ross County
5. Greenock Morton
6. Raith Rovers
7. Queen of the South
8. Partick Thistle
9. Stirling Albion
10. Cowdenbeath
I think it's fair to say that you can divide this league into three "mini-leagues" - the top four will battle for promotion, the bottom two seem inevitably drawn to the relegation and playoff places, and the other four are too good to go down, but not good enough to go up.
DUNDEE were most people's tip for the title last season - including mine. And it looked a pretty safe bet at New Year, only for Jocky Scott's side to collapse like a house of cards in a hurricane and end up a distant second. The squad still looks like the strongest in the division, even without further bankrolling - the likes of Gary Harkins and Leigh Griffiths are still there. Just like last season, though, the doubts are over the coach - Gordon Chisholm did well in Dumfries, but has never won anything in management. Can he get the best out of his bunch? Anything but first will result in his dismissal.
I have a sneaky suspicion that DUNFERMLINE might be their main challengers - I saw them a couple of times towards the end of last season and Jim McIntyre's side looked very slick, even without star striker Andy Kirk. Now he is fit again, and will be well supplied by Willie Gibson and David Graham. The defence looks solid enough too, and they should be there or thereabouts.
Having just been relegated, FALKIRK will look to follow in Inverness' footsteps and win the title. Young winger Ryan Flynn will be, I think, the best player in the division, and Kenny Deuchar, signed from St. Johnstone, should provide a decent goal threat. Their main problems are a failure to adequately replace captain Darren Barr (who moved to Hearts) and question marks over the prowess of coach Steven Pressley, who won few friends last season with his confrontational attitude and who has done nothing yet to show he can take this side back up.
Along with those three, ROSS COUNTY must feel they can push on from their cup run last year and put in a tilt at the title. In contrast to Pressley at Falkirk, Derek Adams has shown real tactical nous and can get great things out of his players. And Michael Gardyne has stayed. County's main weakness is a lack of depth - just like last season, it will only take two or three injuries to put them in a pickle. They can beat anyone in this division, though.
GREENOCK MORTON fans will be just grateful their team aren't in a lower tier, after scraping out of a playoff place on the final day of last season. After the mediocre tenures of David Irons and James Grady, they have turned to Stirling's Allan Moore to take charge, and hopes are a lot higher. Forward Stewart Kean (QOS) and defender Marc Smyth (Airdrie) look like shrewd signings, and expect a comfortable mid-table finish.
John McGlynn's RAITH ROVERS continue to make slight, but constant, improvements each season, making up for a small budget with clever loan signings. French forward Gregory Tade looked good last season and should star again, while defender Mark Campbell has recovered from the car accident that ended his season prematurely. They probalby aren't ready to push for promotion, but a relegation battle would be a disappointment.
In contrast to Raith, QUEEN OF THE SOUTH are probably heading backwards, even though they have held on to their best player, defender Bob Harris. A more frugal budget means a fairly threadbare squad, and coach Kenny Brannigan has been quite outspoken about this. Brannigan himself has no coaching pedigree, and I expect the Dumfries team to be dragged into the lower echelons of the table.
Ditto PARTICK THISTLE, who with the retention of veterans Simon Donnelly, Ian Maxwell, Jackie McNamara and Craig Hinchcliffe, are resembling a bit of an old mans' team. Partick were guff in the second half of last season, and are increasingly dependent on raw youths to make up the numbers. They appear to be stagnating under the stewardship of Ian McCall.
That said, there appears to be a sizeable gap between Partick and the two promoted sides, of whom STIRLING ALBION should finish higher. It will be difficult for the Binos after coach Moore left for Morton, and while John O'Neill has solidified the defence, the new manager starts the season with only two strikers in his squad. Evern further reinforcement is unlikely to save them from at least a relegation playoff.
The favourites for automatic relegation, however, have to be COWDENBEATH, after two consecutive promotions. Manager Danny Lennon left for St. Mirren and took all his best players with him. His replacement, Jimmy Nicholl, has plenty of experience and contacts, but the club's well-documented financial problems mean he is resigned to signing players from the Juniors. Good enough? Unlikely.
L.
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