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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

The (anything-but) definitive 2010-11 Scottish Premier League preview (part 2)

INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE

FIRST TEAM OUTS: Nauris Bulvitis (end of loan), Kyle Allison, Lionel Djebi-Zadi, Jamie Duff, Robert Eagle, Daniel Stratford
FIRST TEAM INS: Gil Blumenshtein, Kenny Gillet, Chris Innes, Jonny Tuffey, Kevin McCann (loan)

PREDICTION: 10TH

PROSPECTS: Hooray, my specialist subject..well actually, if I went on Mastermind, my specialist subject would probably be Terry Pratchett's Discworld, but swiftly moving on...St. Johnstone proved last season that if a newly promoted side keeps its squad together, makes one or two decent signings and becomes particularly difficult to beat at home, relegation need not be a worry.

So obviously Terry Butcher will be looking to emulate this; it was a pleasant surprise that forwards Richie Foran and Jonny Hayes chose to sign new deals despite the admiring glances of bigger clubs, and the players brought in give ICT enough depth to withstand anything other than a Somme-like casualty list. The big worry is up front, where Adam Rooney, scorer of 25 first division goals last season, may not be able to turn that into SPL bounty. But I'd be devastated if we finished bottom, and am quietly hopeful we might even find ourselves as high as seventh.

LIKELY LINEUP: Ryan Esson - Kevin McCann, Ross Tokely, Grant Munro, Kenny Gillet - Lee Cox, Russell Duncan - Jonny Hayes, Eric Odihambo, Richie Foran - Adam Rooney

KILMARNOCK

FIRST TEAM OUTS: Rob Kiernan (end of loan), Chris Maguire (end of loan), Scott Severin (end of loan), Jamie Adams, Mark Burchill, David Fernandez, Iain Flannigan, Simon Ford, Kevin Kyle, Ryan O'Leary, Lee Robinson, Allan Russell, Gavin Skelton
FIRST TEAM INS: Kyle Letheren, David Silva, Ben Gordon (loan)

PREDICTION: 12TH

PROSPECTS: Picture yourself, not in a boat on a river with tangerine trees and marmalade skies (a point for anyone who got the Beatles reference), but as a club chairman at the end of a difficult season where your team avoid relegation by just a point. What do you do to improve your hopes for the following campaign? Well, you probably don't do what Killie have done - replace Tangoman Calderwood with Big Mixu, and slash your minimal budget even further.

The fans might have briefly got excited when they heard David Silva had signed, until it turned out that it was not the Spanish World Cup winner but a Portuguese winger who couldn't cut it in the Bulgarian League. Paatelainen needs to keep Craig Bryson out of Hearts' clutches, and make some massively clever loan signings, or Kilmarnock are basically screwed.

LIKELY LINEUP: Cameron Bell - Tim Clancy, Frazer Wright, Manuel Pascali, Garry Hay - Craig Bryson, James Fowler, Liam Kelly, Mehdi Taouil, Danny Invincibile - Connor Sammon

MOTHERWELL

FIRST TEAM OUTS: Lukas Jutkiewicz (end of loan), Michael McGlinchey (end of loan), John Ruddy (end of loan), Giles Coke, Jim O'Brien, Darren Smith
FIRST TEAM INS: Angelis Charalambous, Lee Hollis, Darren Randolph

PREDICTION: 5TH

PROSPECTS: Whisper it quietly, but Well might not miss their two Everton loanees from last season, Ruddy and Jutkiewicz, as much as expected, especially if Jamie Murphy scores in the SPL like he does in the Europa League. Craig Brown may be ancient, but it seems young footballers are as willing to receive his wisdom as young women are willing to receive his...erm, never mind (this is a family blog, after all).

The Steelmen are still vulnerable to transfer window pickings, particularly regarding Mark Reynolds in defence. But expect players like Steven Saunders and Tom Hateley to continue to develop, and barring a spate of injuries Motherwell should be a top six team again.

LIKELY LINEUP: Darren Randolph - Steven Saunders, Stephen Craigan, Mark Reynolds, Steven Hammell - Steve Jennings, Tom Hateley, Keith Lasley - Chris Humphrey, Jamie Murphy - John Sutton

RANGERS

FIRST TEAM OUTS: DaMarcus Beasley, Kris Boyd, Nacho Novo, Steven Smith, Kevin Thomson, Danny Wilson
FIRST TEAM INS: (none yet)

PREDICTION: 2ND

PROSPECTS: If Rangers make two or three half-decent signings over the next few days, I will happily retract this - but they simply have got rid of so many folk that it would be reckless to assume that, at the time of writing, they could retain the title. But I expect Walter Smith to be as motivated as ever for his final year in charge, and I can't see him going out with the whimper that Alex McLeish did.

Whatever Smith's transfer activity, the huns will be more dependent on their younger players than ever - he needs the likes of Steven Naismith and John Fleck to stay fit and to realise their potential. But he has (so far) held on to McGregor, Bougherra and Davis, and because of that they should be expected to be, at worst, very close to Celtic.

LIKELY LINEUP: Allan McGregor - Steven Whittaker, Andy Webster, Majdid Bougherra, Sasa Papac - Steve Davis, Lee McCulloch, Maurice Edu - Kenny Miller, Kyle Lafferty, Steven Naismith

ST. JOHNSTONE

FIRST TEAM OUTS: Cillian Sheridan (end of loan), Kenny Deuchar, Josh Falkingham, Gary Irvine, Euan MacLean, Alan Main, Filipe Morais, Paul Sheerin, Gavin Swankie
FIRST TEAM INS: Jamie Adams, Scott Dobie, Peter Enckelman, Sam Parkin, Cleveland Taylor

PREDICTION: 6TH

PROSPECTS: I'm not convinced "second-season syndrome" exists, and, if it does, I expect Derek McInnes will be well vaccinated against it. Saints have made some sensible transfer market moves, plugging the gaps in their squad in goal, on the wing and up front - and all the while with a fairly modest wage bill. And whilst playing some really quite entertaining football.

I'm particularly impressed by the fact that so many experienced players from down south have been tempted to the club (and that veteran Michael Duberry has been tempted to stay). The biggest obstacle to the Perth side moving forward is the possibility of McInnes himself moving on to better things - which will surely happen sooner or later. But the later it happens, the more chance there is of St. Johnstone breaking into the top half.

LIKELY LINEUP: Peter Enckelman - Graham Gartland, Michael Duberry, Dave Mackay, Danny Grainger - Cleveland Taylor, Jody Morris, Murray Davidson, Chris Millar - Sam Parkin, Scott Dobie

ST. MIRREN

FIRST TEAM OUTS: Graham Carey (end of loan), Rory Loy (end of loan), Tom Brighton, Andy Dorman, Mark Howard, Chris Innes, Allan Johnston, Billy Mehmet, Stephen O'Donnell, Jack Ross, Chris Smith
FIRST TEAM INS: Sean Lynch, Marc McAusland, Darren McGregor, Paul McQuade, Craig Samson, David Van Zanten, Gareth Wardlaw, Paul McGowan (loan), Jure Travner (loan)

PREDICTION: 11TH

PROSPECTS: Gus McPherson wasn't the most popular manager in the world (right out of the Billy Reid mould) but he had kept St. Mirren safe in the SPL without breaking the bank. I don't see how the Buddies expect to achieve more having replaced him with a far less experienced coach (Danny Lennon) who has to operate within tighter financial constraints. Especially since his two best players, Andy Dorman and Billy Mehmet, have legged it.

Lennon's philosophy appears to be to use journeymen from the lower leagues to fill out the squad, whilst investing more in one or two higher quality players. It's a bit of a risky philosophy, and it doesn't take too much imagination to see it all go up the swanny. Who knows, Lennon might be worth the faith put in him, and guide his side to mid-table safety. But a relegation dogfight seems far more predictable.

LIKELY LINEUP: Paul Gallacher - David Barron, Lee Mair, John Potter, Jure Travner - Steven Robb, Steven Thomson, Hugh Murray, Paul McGowan - Michael Higdon, Craig Dargo

Anyway, that's my two cents. It will be entertaining to see just how wrong I am...

L.

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