Isn't it weird how I'm taking such an interest in the Scottish first division this season? Obviously, it's all just coincidental!
Plenty of talking points from the second tier already, pretty much all of them about cash; some (Dundee) appear to rolling in the stuff, whilst others (Livingston) appear to be in more debt than some third world countries. As stated before by myself, with only the champions earning promotion back to paradise (though if the SPL is paradise it's a sad look out for Christians everywhere!), this is a very hard division to get out of...at least, unless you want to get relegated.
Last year the league was tighter than Vanessa Feltz's G-String, but while that tells you the teams were evenly matched, it also suggests, considering the lack of quality at league winners St. Johnstone, that there is as big a step up between SPL and SFL as there has ever been. That's why I feel quietly confident that my beloved Inverness Caledonian Thistle will be there or thereabouts, as they look like the strongest side to be relegated from the top division this millennium. We've lost the likes of Ian Black and Filipe Morais, two players who were far too good to ever stay for this season, but to a collective surprise and delight up here Richie Foran signed a new deal, and the midfielder cum forward is probably the highest regarded player in the league. ICT also boast a big, strong defence, with plenty of players who won promotion to the SPL as long ago as 2004, and the presence of Dougie Imrie and arrival of Robert Eagle offer plenty of flair. Caley's big problem is undoubtedly up front, where Foran looks set to be used as a target man. Is there a 20-goal-a-season man there? If there is, we will win the league. If there isn't, we probably won't.
Dundee, with their new Uncle Pennybags behind them, are the bookie's favourites, which is not surprising when you consider that their purchases of Leigh Griffiths and Gary Harkins make them bigger spenders this summer than Rangers. The Dark Blues are almost the antithesis of Inverness, with goals guaranteed from Griffiths, Mickael Antoine-Curier and Colin McMenamin, all proven at this level. Questions are more likely to be asked about the back line, which, veteran keeper Rab Douglas aside, looks a bit fragile and lacking in depth, especially if big Jim Lauchlan gets injured. But Dundee have so much fire power that they will fancy their chances of sweeping to the title, and nothing else will keep Jocky Scott in a job.
Partick Thistle were best of the rest last season, but will badly miss Harkins and another departee, defender Marc Twaddle. Jim Hamilton and his big back side will be expected to give them steel up front alongside Liam Buchanan, and if Bryan Hodge, arrived from Blackburn, can replace Harkins, they might challenge again. Certainly a back line including the experience of Ian Maxwell, John Robertson, Martyn Corrigan and Alan Archibald will be difficult to break down, and keeper Jonny Tuffey might be the best in the division. If the midfield can create enough chances, and they can rely on other players than Buchanan to score goals, they will challenge.
Dunfermline Athletic have the pedigree, but have never got close to the top of the table since they were relegated to the first division two seasons ago. Last year they were distracted by a long cup run, but there are no excuses left for manager Jim McIntyre. But it's hard to believe the Pars will be stronger than last year, after losing the spine of their defence (Paul Gallacher, Scott Wilson and Greg Shields) over the summer. There will be a lot of onus on new arrival Willie Gibson to create chances for the forwards, who at least are among the best at this level - Graham Bayne is a top target man, and Andy Kirk a brilliant finisher. But too many of the squad have been brought in from other first division clubs, and there is only one player left - Alex Burke - who has played SPL football in the last two years. Whether Dunfermline have the quality to compete at the top of the table is very doubtful indeed.
It's hard to know what to make of Queen of the South, who always appear to lack the depth and quality to be anything other than relegation battlers, yet constantly prove everyone wrong. They have a solid bunch of hard-nosed veterans this year, with Jamie McQuilken and Derek Lilley in defence, Barry Wilson and Steve Tosh pulling the strings and Derek Holmes up front. Their starting eleven looks capable of giving any team a hard time, but if the older players run out of legs they may well be nearer the bottom than the top.
Despite being an ICT fan, I have no particular urge to give Ross County a hard time; they comfortably re-established themselves as a first division side last season and will not expect to be embroiled in the fight at the bottom this time round. With the exception of Craig Brewster and Stuart Golabek, it appears a young squad, and a lot depends on whether the likes of new signings Iain Vigurs and Garry Wood (both showed potential at Caley, but both were lazy as heck on the training ground) and other youths like Michael Gardyne can make the step up. If these players are on a path to prove they were good enough for the top division after all, County could prove a surprise, but if the going gets tough, they may not have enough leadership to pull together.
Morton are another side who appear hard to gauge; they finished the season very strongly indeed, and the arrival of Neil MacFarlane appears to be the only change to last year's squad. Their problem appears to be a lack of goals up front, and surely the oak-aged James Grady is no longer the answer. Their defence is sorely lacking in depth, but their midfield, with the steeled McFarlane joining the highly rated winger Jim McAlister and the solid Allan Jenkins, will compensate for a lot of their weaknesses.
Raith Rovers have waited too long to return to this division, but they will have to work hard to stay in it. Long gone are the glory days of the mid-nineties; the damage done by the Claude Anelka era leaves Kirkcaldy's finest with a host of young players and first division cast-offs, with only defender Grant Murray, forward Graham Weir and midfielder Stephen Simmons having previously showed promise at a higher level. If these three stay fit they should survive, but otherwise a lack of depth and a lack of quality could put them in trouble.
The same can be said of Ayr United who as the promotion playoff winners are inevitably expected to be battling against relegation. They do at least have, in Brian Reid, a very under-rated young manager, and his summer signings have been sensible - Craig Samson in goal and Andy Aitken and Billy Gibson in defence all offer experience. Kevin James is still going as well. They badly need Bryan Prunty, lethal in division two, to make the step up and provide a good strike rate in order to keep them up.
And, last, and definitely least, we have the dreaded Livingston. If there is any justice in the world, they will get their ten point penalty and, with only a handful of senior players left, be doomed to relegation before we even start. There's not a lot else you can say about them.
So here's how I think it will finish...
1. Dundee
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2. Inverness Caledonian Thistle
3. Partick Thistle
4. Ross County
5. Dunfermline Athletic
6. Morton
7. Queen of the South
8. Raith Rovers
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9. Ayr United
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10. Livingston
Prove me wrong, ICT, prove me wrong!
L.
Edit: Obviously Livi-gate (which is worth a rant at a later date) changes things, but I think you can just slot Airdrie United into that tenth place on my prediction table instead. Simples!
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