The hopes of a new dawn where more than two clubs could win the Scottish League faded by the end of May, as first Lawrence Shankland and then Derek McInnes hot-footed it to Ibrox. For all Tony Bloom's Jamestown witchcraft, it feels like last season was an altogether rare alignment of the planets, as the Old Firm both went through spectacular crises in the same campaign, whilst other clubs spectacularly raised their game.
I'm not totally convinced there isn't another predicament coming for CELTIC who should be a team in transition but actually seem increasingly like the 'This is fine' meme in football club form. The signings of Kasper Høgh (look at the effort I'm going to here, I even bothered with the 'ø') and Camilo Duran alleviate this a bit but it's very possible that August will bring significant bids for players like Alistair Johnston, Arne Engels and Benjamin Nygren, and would you trust the club to adequately replace them, given all the guff they've been spouting about dealing with agents? Moreover, I'm just not confident that guys like Viljami Sinisalo and Yang Hjun-jun are really quite at the level you would expect for a team that aspires to playing in the Champions League Group Stage. If Høgh (that ø again!) scores enough to justify that price tag - and by 'enough' I mean 'a hell of a lot' - that might paper over the cracks sufficiently. But it's a bold strategy, Cotton.
RANGERS at least appear to have a plan. You know that you will get a high floor with Derek McInnes; now is the chance he has been looking for to prove his ceiling isn't terribly limited. Shankland and Youssouf Chermiti should score plenty between them, providing someone (hopefully Findlay Curtis, from a Scotland point of view) can provide the creativity that Mikey Moore delivered last year. I like Ross McCrorie as a no-nonsense option at right-back and Ivor Pandur as an upgrade in goal. Whisper it, but I think they are going to win the league this year, especially if they can get in another good wide player.
It's not outrageous to suggest HEARTS will go backwards, but the question is whether it'll be a small step while new boss Wouter Vrancken finds his feet, or whether it'll be a collapse, which is entirely possible if players acquired from the French Third Division and the English National League turn out to be only up to scratch in a computer database. I have more confidence than that but the exits of Shankland, Cammy Devlin and Alexander Schwolow and the long-term injury to Craig Halkett have ripped the spine out of the Jambos. Defender Malachi Fagan-Walcott and midfielder Sabri Guendouz cost a lot of money and Hearts simply can't afford them to be as disappointing as record signing Ageu (still injured!) was last season. If (when?) good offers come in for Claudio Braga and Alexandros Kyziridis and then a team lacking last season's stars begins to struggle I can't help feeling the fans will get on Vrancken's back quickly.
MOTHERWELL are a more curious case. They clearly anticipated Jens Berthel Askou's departure and have dipped back into the 'European coach with interesting ideas' well, to pluck out Alfred Johansson. I was pretty anxious for them after they sold Elijah Just and Elliott Watt but the early signs are promising. I particularly fancy left-back Dylan Williams, though I'm not sure how he and Emmanuel Longelo will fit in the same team. A lot depends on whether Tawanda Maswanhise can repeat his incredible 2025/26 campaign, or whether the Steelmen can rustle up a replacement if he moves on too. I'm excited to see if Alex Lowry (Wycombe) can finally fulfil the potential he displayed as a Rangers youth, and the sudden emergence of young Mikey Booth is worth watching too. I'd expect a few more new faces before the end of the month which should get them to where they want to be.
It kind of feels like HIBERNIAN are in a bit of a rut, where they are neither making tangible progress under David Gray nor doing badly enough that they can justify punting him. Maybe they'll just finish fifth for the rest of eternity. The lack of flexibility in their 'three at the back, get the wingbacks to cross early' tactics doesn't help, but that's all the squad is designed for. They really need Owen Elding or new signing Nathan Lowe (whose comments about being the Premiership's top scorer definitely won't come back to haunt him) to step up like Kieron Bowie did. A fit Josh Mulligan will help a lot, and hopefully so will the addition of Josh Kerr to the defence. But it's all just a bit 'meh'.
ABERDEEN weren't even close to reaching 'meh' levels last season but their budget means that it would be a catastrophe if they were stuck in the bottom half again. I'm still not sold on Stephen Robinson as the answer to their problems, though his move to a back four and willingness to play wingers is reassuring given his rigidity at St. Mirren. Connor Ronan looks like a cracking signing as a playmaker and enormous centre-back Dan Happe should really help them in both boxes. Most crucially, Kevin Nisbet appears to be back in form. Still, this looks mostly like a functional team rather than a great one, though in turn that is a huge upgrade from last time out. I previously joked on Twitter that their signing policy appears to be two Robinson signings and then one from Director of Football Lutz Pfannenstiel, but there might be an element of truth to that - keeper Marius Muller and midfielder Alexander Briedl have clearly been rustled up by the latter.
FALKIRK were a top half team last season but now comes the difficult second album. The departures of Barney Stewart, Calvin Miller and Dylan Tait will be hard to overcome; John McGlynn seems to be focusing on bringing youngsters with high upside for attacking areas, such as Ethan Laidlaw (Brentford) and Joe Gardner (Nottingham Forest) and adding experience to the backline with Ryan Strain (Dundee United), Scott Tanser (St. Mirren) and Jack McMillan (Exeter). I'm suspicious that the momentum that they carried over from promotion might have finally petered out. McGlynn also doesn't appear to have solved their big weakness, which was defending their own box. If the goals do dry up without Stewart leading the line I'm not convinced they can grind out one-nil wins.
it feels like DUNDEE UNITED have tried to rip it up and start again for the second consecutive summer. They didn't exercise options on any of the four loan players they could have chosen to keep and couldn't permanently sign the two who shone, Amar Fatah and Luca Stephenson. Hopefully Jack Walton (Preston) will solve their goalkeeper woes on his return to the club, while Michael Forbes (West Ham) looks like a talented young defender. Jim Goodwin has gone full Antipodean in attack, adding Jesse Randall and Lachlan Rose as potential partners for Zack Sapsford. If they can get to the end of the window without losing the excellent left-back Will Ferry then they will be good candidates for a return to the top six. Playing on a pitch that doesn't look like the Somme in 1916 might help their prospects too.
Their city rivals DUNDEE might have more moderate aspirations, even though the appointment of Steven Pressley worked out far better than anyone expected. They sold Luke Graham and Billy Koumetio for good money but now have gaps to plug in defence; if Owen Bevan (Bournemouth) can stay fit he should fill one of those positions more than adequately. They will also miss loan wingers Cameron Congreve and Tony Yogane, though Alan Forrest (Hearts) will take one of those spots. Owen Goodman (on loan from Crystal Palace) replaces Jon McCracken (Bradford) in goal. They still feel a few players short and I'd expect them to attack the loan market again in the next few weeks. Pressley, who looks more like Isa from Still Game by the month, is working hard to reduce expectations though.
KILMARNOCK improved exponentially under Neil McCann, not least because of the goals that Joe Hugill and Tyreece John-Jules provided. The trick will be fitting them both in the team and creating chances for them now that Findlay Curtis is back at Rangers. Tom Lowery and Aaron Tshibola became a strong midfield combination and hopefully they will provide a platform for the club's latest Ibrox loanee, Bailey Rice. Michael Schjonning-Larsen will be fun to watch bombing forward from left-back and if new wide players Erik Ring and Roshaun Mathurin are up to it then Killie could really push on. At the end of last season I had high hopes for them but they will really miss Curtis and I don't think they have a centre-back they can totally rely on; I'm biased towards Robbie Deas because he used to play for ICT but the other options aren't terrific.
ST. MIRREN chose to keep Craig McLeish in charge after a fairly underwhelming interim spell and he is determined to change them from a direct outfit to a possession one. There are already reasons for concern though. The defence looks uncomfortable playing out from the back and is already weaker for the sale of Miguel Freckleton (LASK Linz). Right-back looks a particularly weak area, with Marcus Fraser not suited to the role and Jayden Richardson simply not good enough, while on the other flank Declan John's long-term injury means that a lot is required from newbie Henry Fieldson (Queen's Park). In midfield the new system doesn't really suit the all-action Killian Phillips, and up front a lot is required of youngster Eseosa Sule (West Bromwich Albion) who is an excellent prospect and far from the finished product. With Jonah Ayunga injured, Mikael Mandron away and Jake Young unwanted there are not a lot of alternatives. To be honest, this all feels like 2014 when they replaced Danny Lennon with Tommy Craig, and that did not go well...
And finally ST. JOHNSTONE return after a year in the Championship where they seemed to find themselves again under the hugely popular Simo Valakari. Making the step up will be a lot harder for the loss of Josh McPake (Hearts) who was their talisman last season, and goals might be hard to come by unless Josh Fowler or Ruari Paton can raise their game. I'm nervous about whether they will be able to play out from the back as well as they did last season or whether they will be caught out by high-pressing opponents. Of their new signings I am a big fan of winger Logan Chalmers (Partick) who I think could be a real success. I think they will struggle, and although Simo has a lot of credit in the bank I wonder whether their style can achieve results with the relative lack of quality they have.
So here's the inevitably wrong predicted table:
1. RANGERS
2. CELTIC
3. MOTHERWELL
4. HEARTS
5. HIBERNIAN
6. ABERDEEN
7. DUNDEE UNITED
8. KILMARNOCK
9. DUNDEE
10. FALKIRK
11. ST. JOHNSTONE
12 ST. MIRREN
Don't forget to bookmark this so you can remind me how wrong I was about your team!
Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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