For my annual League One reviews, I've tended to assume that full-time sides (the ones that are not financial basket-cases) are likely to beat out part-time ones over the course of a whole season. Of course Arbroath put that particular theory to shame last season, but I'm not going to let a small thing like that stop me.
Of this season's four full-time League One teams, INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE are the bookies' favourites but start with a five point deduction courtesy of last season's administration adventure. Five points isn't a huge amount, but it's the equivalent of nearly two wins and may make this tougher than many think. Caley Thistle have also lost loanee striker Alfie Bavidge plus excellent keeper Musa Dibaga and midfielder Charlie Gilmour, though they've replaced the latter two adequately with Ross Munro and Joe Chalmers respectively. They also did well to retain Paul Allan and get Alfie Stewart back on loan. They unquestionably have the best midfield in the division and wingers Luis Longstaff and Liam Sole could have big years; however at the moment their starting attackers are Billy McKay (36) and David Wotherspoon (35). A new striker (or a Bavidge return) is required if they really are going to be the team to beat.
QUEEN OF THE SOUTH finished last season strongly and so boss Peter Murphy has largely chosen to run it back, signing three loan players permanently. Jordan Allan and new striker Kurtis Guthrie (who played for Livingston in the top flight a few years back) should be a threatening pair and mitigate the exit of Adam Brooks. They've also used the loan market well to get St. Mirren defender Callum Penman and exciting Killie midfielder Cole Burke, while Kai Kennedy is hugely talented if he can stay fit. This looks like the best squad the Doonhamers have had in the last few seasons and could take them far.
In contrast, COVE RANGERS went down a rebuild route; Paul Hartley has lost a number of players, including goalie Nick Suman and club legend Connor Scully, and is operating a very streamlined squad at the time of writing. There is plenty of quality in striker Mitch Megginson and midfielders Fraser Fyvie and Declan Glass but new keeper Robbie Mutch will be a downgrade from the terrific Suman (who joined Aberdeen) and the lack of depth - and, surprisingly, the lack of loan signings so far - will be a concern unless Hartley is very busy in the market in the next month.
And then we come to the aforementioned basket-case. HAMILTON ACADEMICAL were relegated after a points deduction and now, having had to move to Cumbernauld for the season, they have been hit with a transfer embargo until next summer as well. Whilst they held on to a pretty solid core - including forwards Oli Shaw and Scott Robinson and midfielders Barry Maguire and Steven Bradley - they seem to only have around 13 senior players; just to add to the chaos, at least two veterans who had been kept on to join the coaching staff apparently can't be re-registered as players due to the embargo. They feel like the obvious answer to the question "Which Scottish club is most likely to end up in administration this season?".
Which of the part-time clubs could emulate Arbroath's success? I'm not sure any jump out for me. PETERHEAD could well carry momentum from their League Two title triumph; guys like Craig McGuffie, Peter Pawlett and Cammy Smith have been round the block and Oliver Colloty really impressed up front after joining mid-season. Jack Newman should be a good signing in goal, though I'm not sure veteran forward Niall McGinn has much left to offer. It'll be strange seeing them without Rory McAllister up front though.
The other promoted side, EAST FIFE, have only made one new signing at the time of writing - Lewis Latona on loan from Livingston - and it'll be a huge ask for 39 year old forward Alan Trouten to repeat last season's ridiculous goal tally. He and Nathan Austin should give them enough firepower but neither the defence nor midfield look of League One standard (as it stands, their only goalkeeper is youth product Matty Rollo, who made his debut in the League Cup groups). They need reinforcements if they are to show they belong here.
STENHOUSEMUIR did remarkably well to make the promotion playoffs last season but admitted afterward that their finances had sailed rather too close to the wind for comfort. The exit of Blair Alston is probably a sign they are cutting their cloth. Striker Matty Yates has also gone (though his expected move to Accies fell through and he's still a free agent) and most of their signings are short-term ones to deal with an injury crisis. Finlay Gray looks like a great addition from Dumbarton and boosts a midfield area that is probably still a strength, and Gregor Buchanan and Ross Meechan provide experience at the back. However they look very unlikely to challenge for top four again.
ALLOA ATHLETIC just missed out on that fourth spot and there was perhaps a feeling that Andy Graham's side underachieved a little last season. With the exception of loan keeper Liam McFarlane most of their newcomers feel like depth pieces though medical student midfielder Andy Clarke looks worth taking a punt on. They'll need McFarlane to prove an adequate replacement for PJ Morrison between the sticks, but otherwise the backbone of last season's team is still here and still looks strong. I don't think League Cup form holds much weight but the Wasps were very, very good in the group stage.
Last season was quite a turbulent one for KELTY HEARTS, who lost manager Michael Tidser to Dunfermline and then endured a nightmare period under Charlie Mulgrew. Tam O'Ware took the reins after Mulgrew's exit and kept them out of a relegation playoff; he was rewarded with the gig permanently and has only retained nine players. If he can gel the newbies quickly, he could be rewarded; midfielders Innes Murray and Alex Ferguson look like particularly smart acquisitions. But top scorer Ross Cunningham is away and they're looking to former Stirling forward James Graham for goals.
And finally MONTROSE are heading for their eighth consecutive season at this level, which is some job. It does seem to be getting gradually tougher for Stewart Petrie's side though. Keeping Kieran Freeman and Craig Wighton permanently after loan spells will help, and Ewan Loudon scored a lot of goals in the Highland League last season. And the defence, marshalled by 42 year old Sean Dillon, isn't short of experience. But they're another team who could do with bringing in a few loans if they are to avoid a relegation scrap.
So here's my (inevitably wrong) predicted table:
1. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
2. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
3. COVE RANGERS
4. PETERHEAD
5. ALLOA ATHLETIC
6. KELTY HEARTS
7. STENHOUSEMUIR
8. MONTROSE
9. EAST FIFE
10. HAMILTON ACADEMICAL
Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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