Increasingly, the Championship/League One divide is getting very close to being full-time/part-time. A full-time club will only stay in this division for a short period of time, because either they'll get promoted or they'll have to go part-time.
But being full-time of course comes with advantages in budget and status. And therefore the one full-time team, Raith Rovers, should probably romp this league. It was bad enough that Raith missed out on the League One title on the final day of last season; going out in the playoffs was a disaster. Barry Smith can't afford to fail a second time, and has brought in several players who belong at Championship level including Grant Gillespie, Nat Wedderburn and Kevin Nisbet. And they still have Liam Buchanan and Lewis Vaughan. Surely they can't screw up again?
Arguably the most interesting thing about this season's League One derby is the twenty-four Angus derbies that we have to look forward to. This is the first time in twenty-four years that Arbroath, Brechin, Forfar and Montrose have been in the same league. Having been to the odd Arbroath-Montrose derby in the past I can happily testify that these are proper local derbies. And importantly they bring in decent crowds which should be enormously beneficial for these clubs.
I do feel an opportunity has been missed to form some sort of Angus Cup, a league-within-a-league, to be awarded to the side that has the best record in league derbies this season. After all, it's not like any of these clubs have much chance of trophies at the best of times.
Of those four, one would expect Montrose to struggle the most given they've just come up from League Two (for the first time in more than twenty years!). But Stewart Petrie has retained nearly all the squad that won promotion, including young striker Martin Rennie. The loss of talismanic forward Chris Templeman, now retired, will be hard to compensate for and they may need further reinforcement if they are to stay up.
In contrast, Brechin City would usually be expected to be in the promotion hunt given they were a Championship club last year. But Darren Dods' side set new records for uselessness in the second tier and haven't won a league game since May 2017. Most of their better players have left, and those remaining can't even remember what winning feels like, so it would be no surprise if they took time to find their feet again.
Forfar Athletic should be on the up though, having improved considerably after appointing Jim Weir as boss mid-season. Gary Fraser is an outstanding signing at this level, while Thomas Reilly and veteran John Baird should score goals. They are a dark horse for a playoff push.
Arbroath made the playoffs last year and showed with their League Cup win over Ross County that they will be a tough opponent again this year. Few managers have as much experience at this level as Dick Campbell and they will hope to challenge again, especially with Jason Thomson and Lewis Toshney to strengthen the defence.
Airdrieonians have fianlly found some stability after a turbulent year or two off the park which has seen them return to part-time status. Stevie Findlay did enough last season to get the Head Coach gig permanently, and they've had a big clearout and rebuild. There's a good chance they will do better than the full-timers that wore the shirt last year.
In fact, the best bet to push Raith may be Dumbarton following their return to League One after five years in the Championship. They continue to have a bigger budget than most part-time clubs and the likes of Ross Forbes, Rory Loy and Michael Paton really should stroll it.
It's much harder to predict the fortunes of Stranraer, who seemed to be in real money problems around the turn of the year and got rid of many high earners in January, yet still came quite close to the playoffs. They should be on a more solid footing this time around, especially if they are clever at working the loan market again.
East Fife also feel like a bit of an unknown quantity, having largely tread water under Darren Young and they have lost a number of their best players including Chris Duggan and Kieran Miller to division rivals. That said, most of their new signings have been around the block and should have enough quality and nous to keep them out of danger,
Not so Stenhousemuir, obviously the favourites to go down because they came up via the playoffs. Brown Ferguson does an excellent job with only peanuts for a wage bill but establishing them in the third tier will be hard even with Jesus Garcia Tena marshalling the defence.
So here's my predicted table:
1. RAITH ROVERS
2. DUMBARTON
3. AIRDRIEONIANS
4. ARBROATH
5. FORFAR ATHLETIC
6. STRANRAER
7. EAST FIFE
8. BRECHIN CITY
9. MONTROSE
10. STENHOUSEMUIR
Let's see if that prediction turns out to be just a little bit wrong, or completely and utterly wrong.
Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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