The current top three will probably finish the season in those positions, though not necessarily in the same order. But There's a six point gap between third and fourth...and a six point gap between fourth and bottom spot. With East Kilbride tearing up the Lowland League, there's a real likelihood that another club will fall through the trapdoor like East Stirlingshire did last season.
Edinburgh City were most people's favourites to exit the SPFL as soon as they'd arrived, and a dreadful start to the season seemed to confirm those fears. But they've found their feet dramatically, going seven matches unbeaten until last weekend's loss to Arbroath. While marquee signing Craig Beattie has been largely a non-factor, Joe Mbu's decision to postpone retirement has been a huge boost and the January signing of ex-England u19 captain Josh Walker (who scored once for Aberdeen against Bayern Munich!) is intriguing. One wouldn't bet against them avoiding the drop.
Bottom spot has changed hands six times in the last six weeks. Currently its Cowdenbeath at the foot, at risk of their third consecutive relegation. Liam Fox's revamped side has several names that Scottish football fans will recognise - David McGurn, Burton O'Brien, Chris Turner, Gary Glen and Fraser Mullen among them - and were supposed to be at the top end of the table, but they've struggled mightily with just five league wins.
Berwick Rangers only moved off the bottom by winning at Central Park last weekend, but are at real risk of losing their status as the only English team in the SPFL. Manager John Coughlin reportedly offered to resign in October after they were knocked out of the Cup by Hawick Royal Albert, but was persuaded to stay on. The club have been busy already since the transfer window opened as they look to bring in enough quality to stay up.
It's no surprise to see Montrose in trouble; this is their twentieth consecutive season in the fourth tier and it's less than two yearss since they defeated Brora Rangers to preserve their league status. The manager who saved them, Paul Hegarty, was dismissed in November and replaced by ex-Dunfermline player Stewart Petrie. Form has improved since, but they are ninth in the table and are in real danger. An improved record at Links Park, where they've won just twice since mid-February 2016,
The other League Two club to change manager is Stirling Albion, who sacked Stuart McLaren in September after a humiliating home thumping by Elgin showcased the squad's lack of fight and left them with one win from their first seven games. It took six weeks for them to appoint a successor - ex-St. Johnstone player Dave 'Cuptie' Mackay who takes on his first managerial role in trying circumstances. Their hopes of a surge into the promotion playoffs may hinge on whether they can hold onto French forward Dylan Bikey, who has scored seven in seven games on an amateur contract.
That Clyde are in this large group seems inexcusable to this writer, particularly given boss Barry Ferguson's penchant for pontificating on other clubs and managers in his newspaper columns. It's the ex-Scotland skipper's third season at Broadwood, and it seems like he brings in a new team every year. After looking like emulating last season's run to the playoff final, they've picked up just one point from their last six games and tumbled down the table.
Jim Chapman's Annan Athletic have overtaken Clyde for fourth on goal difference, though they've won consecutive games just once all season. The loss of a number of experienced players last summer hurt the Borderers and they've done well to keep themselves in mid-table after a big squad turnover.
At the right end of the league, Gary Bollan's Forfar Athletic look a good bet to return to League One at the first time of asking, having opened up a seven point gap at the top of the table. The Loons won their first seven league games and have led the division since opening day.
Behind them, Arbroath and Elgin City are very likely to take up two of the three playoff spots. Dick Campbell is a seasoned operator in the lower leagues and has built an experienced squad at Gayfield that are grinding out results. Elgin were hopeless away from Borough Briggs last season but this term it has been their home form that has let them down and prevented them from challenging Forfar; in ex-Inverness striker Shane Sutherland they have the division's leading scorer with thirteen goals.