As for the rest, this weekend's results seem to have divided the remaining 10 teams into 2 mini-leagues. Aberdeen, Motherwell, Dundee United and Inverness CT appear to be just about guaranteed a top six place, given that the gap between fifth and sixth is now 9 points with not very many games left. Those four sides will battle it out for second place, I suppose.
The other six teams are separated by only 8 points. In this mini-league, there is a big prize for the side that finishes at the top - that final coveted place in the top six before the split. There is also a significant punishment for coming bottom of it - for the first time, the eleventh placed side in the league will have to beat a team from The Championship in a playoff to maintain their top flight status.
There's plenty at stake for those six teams, then. Below, I look at the points totals that historically have been achieved by the team in sixth at the split, and the team that finishes eleventh, and assess the prospects of each side for the rest of the season.
POINTS NEEDED TO MAKE THE TOP SIX
In the thirteen seasons since the split was introduced, the points total for the team in sixth at the split (after 33 games) has ranged between 41 and 48 points - but only twice has the team in sixth had more than 44 points. The points total for the team in seventh at the split has ranged between 37 and 44 points.
POINTS TOTAL OF THE ELEVENTH PLACED TEAM
In the thirteen seasons since the split was introduced, the points total for the team finishing eleventh has ranged from 32 to 41. Only three sides have finished eleventh with 38 or more points.
ST JOHNSTONE
LEAGUE POSITION: 6th - 25 games, 32 points, GD +1
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: The Perth Saints haven't been quite the same, for me, since Steven Maclean got injured - his return in a few weeks from a knee operation will allow him to renew his excellent partnership with Stevie May up front. Tommy Wright will, however, probably have to do without experienced central defender Frazer Wright and his best midfielder, Murray Davidson, for the rest of the season. Curiously, Wright has stuck with a number of players who have suffered dips in form, such as Nigel Hasselbaink, Gary McDonald and David Wotherspoon, though he brought in alternatives in January. He may need to make changes to get the team firing again.
CURRENT FORM: Much poorer than I realized - 11 points from their last 12 league games. At the start of that run, St Johnstone were 4 points behind second place, and 6 points ahead of seventh place. In their last six away games, they've scored only a single goal.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? With games in hand on the teams below them, St Johnstone remain hot favourites to take that sixth place. Their last five matches before the split are against the five teams directly below them in the league, so their fate is very much in their own hands. It would take a collapse of epic proportions to suck them into the fight for eleventh.
HIBERNIAN
LEAGUE POSITION: 7th - 26 games, 32 points, GD -5
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: January business was all about papering over cracks with loan signings. Whether this will prove to be enough remains to be seen. Terry Butcher appears to have settled on his favoured back four, which has helped, but Hibs don't seem to have enough goals in their attack. The return of some width to the team with Alex Harris (back from injury) and loanee Duncan Watmore may help.
CURRENT FORM: Under Butcher, Hibs have 17 points from 13 league matches. Under Pat Fenlon, they picked up 15 points from 11 league matches. That's, um, well, not really a lot of difference at all, is it? Since they won the New Year derby against Hearts, they've won only one of six league games, and been knocked out of the cup by Raith Rovers.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? I actually had it in my mind that Hibs were the form team in the bottom half, and was a bit shocked to discover I was wrong. Their last three home games are against Motherwell, Dundee United and Aberdeen. Remarkably, rearranged fixtures have left them with four consecutive away games in March. Might that be the difference between top six and bottom six? I'd pencil in their travel to Perth on 22 March as the big one for them. And, no, they won't come eleventh.
KILMARNOCK
LEAGUE POSITION: 8th - 27 games, 27 points, GD -12
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Fair play to Magic Johnston, who recognised the mistakes he made in the summer transfer window and got rid of plenty of dead wood in January. He also realized that youth is the way to go at Rugby Park - five players under 21 started this weekend's game. There's a lot more solidity and confidence in this squad than there was a few months ago, though the dependence on Kris Boyd for goals remains.
CURRENT FORM: It's been steady as she goes since the start of December - five wins, three draws and five losses. That's the sort of form that leaves you on the brink of missing out on the top six, but also adrift of a relegation battle.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? Killie's last game before the split is against St. Johnstone at Rugby Park. It'll be difficult to keep in the top six hunt till then, though, given that the three games before that are against the top three teams in the table. Kris Boyd's goals should keep them ahead of St Mirren and Partick - if he gets crocked, though, it might be a different story.
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Fair play to Magic Johnston, who recognised the mistakes he made in the summer transfer window and got rid of plenty of dead wood in January. He also realized that youth is the way to go at Rugby Park - five players under 21 started this weekend's game. There's a lot more solidity and confidence in this squad than there was a few months ago, though the dependence on Kris Boyd for goals remains.
CURRENT FORM: It's been steady as she goes since the start of December - five wins, three draws and five losses. That's the sort of form that leaves you on the brink of missing out on the top six, but also adrift of a relegation battle.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? Killie's last game before the split is against St. Johnstone at Rugby Park. It'll be difficult to keep in the top six hunt till then, though, given that the three games before that are against the top three teams in the table. Kris Boyd's goals should keep them ahead of St Mirren and Partick - if he gets crocked, though, it might be a different story.
ROSS COUNTY
LEAGUE POSITION: 9th - 26 games, 25 points, GD -14
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Derek Adams gutted his squad in January - seven of his starting lineup this weekend weren't at the club in December - and it has paid dividends. County are stronger in every area of the pitch than they were in the latter stages of 2013. The only issue remains a lack of goals up front, with Yoann Arquin the only out-and-out striker to have scored a league goal for the club this season.
CURRENT FORM: County's eight league games in 2014 have yielded 14 points. That's not too shabby at all and suggests that they're on the up. They have, however, won away from home only once this season.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? The Staggies have an excellent recent record at home to local rivals Inverness - and will fancy that they can win both the clashes between the sides before the split. If County continue in their current vein of form they have a chance of sneaking above the teams above them - though their last four pre-split games (Motherwell away, Aberdeen at home, Celtic away, Inverness at home) may cost them too many points. I certainly can't see them finishing lower than their current position though.
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Derek Adams gutted his squad in January - seven of his starting lineup this weekend weren't at the club in December - and it has paid dividends. County are stronger in every area of the pitch than they were in the latter stages of 2013. The only issue remains a lack of goals up front, with Yoann Arquin the only out-and-out striker to have scored a league goal for the club this season.
CURRENT FORM: County's eight league games in 2014 have yielded 14 points. That's not too shabby at all and suggests that they're on the up. They have, however, won away from home only once this season.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? The Staggies have an excellent recent record at home to local rivals Inverness - and will fancy that they can win both the clashes between the sides before the split. If County continue in their current vein of form they have a chance of sneaking above the teams above them - though their last four pre-split games (Motherwell away, Aberdeen at home, Celtic away, Inverness at home) may cost them too many points. I certainly can't see them finishing lower than their current position though.
PARTICK THISTLE
LEAGUE POSITION: 10th - 27 games, 25 points, GD -16
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Alan Archibald identified his side's weaknesses as being a weak central defence, no-one to anchor the midfield, and a lack of goals, and moved in January to rectify these. Whilst I don't think Lee Mair really sorts out the first problem, Prince Buaben certainly adds some steel and Lyle Taylor, in fits and starts, is more effective than Kris Doolan was up front. I'd say that, on paper, they look as strong as most of the other teams around them.
CURRENT FORM: On Saturday, at the fourteenth time of asking, Partick Thistle won a home league game. Incredibly it was only their second win in eighteen games since mid-October. Is it a sign that the Jags have turned the corner, or just a momentary blip?
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? With no games in hand over the sides above them, Thistle would probably have to win five of their next six to make the top six - which isn't going to happen. Their next two matches - away to Ross County and at home to Hibs - will tell us if they can push on from the victory over Aberdeen. I think, when it comes to it, Partick and St. Mirren will finish tenth and eleventh...but in which order?
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Alan Archibald identified his side's weaknesses as being a weak central defence, no-one to anchor the midfield, and a lack of goals, and moved in January to rectify these. Whilst I don't think Lee Mair really sorts out the first problem, Prince Buaben certainly adds some steel and Lyle Taylor, in fits and starts, is more effective than Kris Doolan was up front. I'd say that, on paper, they look as strong as most of the other teams around them.
CURRENT FORM: On Saturday, at the fourteenth time of asking, Partick Thistle won a home league game. Incredibly it was only their second win in eighteen games since mid-October. Is it a sign that the Jags have turned the corner, or just a momentary blip?
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? With no games in hand over the sides above them, Thistle would probably have to win five of their next six to make the top six - which isn't going to happen. Their next two matches - away to Ross County and at home to Hibs - will tell us if they can push on from the victory over Aberdeen. I think, when it comes to it, Partick and St. Mirren will finish tenth and eleventh...but in which order?
ST MIRREN
LEAGUE POSITION: 11th - 27 games, 24 points, GD -19
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Argh. Danny Lennon has once more returned to his early season 'square pegs in round holes' philosophy - which meant that in Dingwall on Saturday St. Mirren played central midfielders Conor Newton, Jim Goodwin and Kenny Maclean at right back, centre half, and on the wing respectively, whilst using the absolutely hapless Eric Djemba-Djemba in the middle of the park and leaving Adam Campbell and Paul McGowan on the bench. It seemed a few months ago like Lennon had found his strongest XI - but he appears to have forgotten it again. He needs to find it again, sharpish. I'll give you a clue, Danny - it has Goodwin in midfield, McGowan and Campbell up top, and Djemba-Djemba not at all!
CURRENT FORM: Rank rotten. Whichever way you choose to judge it - 10 points out of a possible 45, or 5 points out of a possible 30, or 1 win in 10 league games, or 2 wins in 15 league games - St Mirren are not going well at all.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? They have next to chance of making it up to sixth place, as they have no games in hand. However, most fans won't be looking beyond next weekend's clash with Kilmarnock at St. Mirren Park; a defeat could well leave the Buddies with a big hole to dig their way out of, especially as they follow that game with visits to Tannadice and Celtic Park. In fact they play every top six team except Aberdeen before the split. If St. Mirren are to avoid that playoff, it will be because they do well in the post-split fixtures.
STRENGTH OF SQUAD: Argh. Danny Lennon has once more returned to his early season 'square pegs in round holes' philosophy - which meant that in Dingwall on Saturday St. Mirren played central midfielders Conor Newton, Jim Goodwin and Kenny Maclean at right back, centre half, and on the wing respectively, whilst using the absolutely hapless Eric Djemba-Djemba in the middle of the park and leaving Adam Campbell and Paul McGowan on the bench. It seemed a few months ago like Lennon had found his strongest XI - but he appears to have forgotten it again. He needs to find it again, sharpish. I'll give you a clue, Danny - it has Goodwin in midfield, McGowan and Campbell up top, and Djemba-Djemba not at all!
CURRENT FORM: Rank rotten. Whichever way you choose to judge it - 10 points out of a possible 45, or 5 points out of a possible 30, or 1 win in 10 league games, or 2 wins in 15 league games - St Mirren are not going well at all.
WILL THEY FINISH SIXTH OR ELEVENTH, OR INBETWEEN? They have next to chance of making it up to sixth place, as they have no games in hand. However, most fans won't be looking beyond next weekend's clash with Kilmarnock at St. Mirren Park; a defeat could well leave the Buddies with a big hole to dig their way out of, especially as they follow that game with visits to Tannadice and Celtic Park. In fact they play every top six team except Aberdeen before the split. If St. Mirren are to avoid that playoff, it will be because they do well in the post-split fixtures.
My verdict - St. Johnstone to hold off Hibs and Ross County for sixth, and St. Mirren (with a new face in the dugout) to contest the playoff. What do you think?
L.
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