Thursday, May 16, 2013

The Biggest Highland Derby Ever

Since they joined the Scottish Football League in 1994, Inverness Caledonian Thistle and Ross County have crossed paths many a time.  These games are always intense; even in the third division days Hugh Dallas was often dragged up the A9 to officiate, and I remember one game at Victoria Park where both goalkeepers were pelted with missiles (the County keeper, to his immense credit, picked up the Mars bar that hit him and ate it right in front of the opposing support).  The peak - or trough, depending on your point of view - of the Highland derbies was the sight of County striker Alex Bone receiving three red cards in one match - one for a bad tackle, one for abusing the ref, and one for trying (and spectacularly failing) to headbutt future ICT boss Charlie Christie on his way off the pitch.

Now the two sides are in the top flight, the importance of these clashes has been ramped up another notch.  Including the two meetings in the Scottish Cup (a replay was required, which ICT won 2-1 after a remarkable 3-3 draw in the first game), this weekend's match will be the sixth time the two teams have crossed swords this season.

And there's more at stake than ever before.  It's the final weekend of the league season.  A win would confirm Caley Thistle in third place, their highest ever finish, and guarantee them a crack at the Europa League qualifiers for the first time.  Until last week's defeat at Fir Park, County were still in with a shot at that European place; now their motivation for Sunday is to deny ICT that position.  Oh, and they can still finish fourth if they win and St. Johnstone lose.  And there's local pride at stake.  And the Dingwall side are still looking for their first El Kessocko (yes, I cringed writing that) win of the season.

So plenty of motivation then.  This one will be tasty.  Some of the rigmarole between the two managers this season has been hammed up for the cameras, no doubt, but some of it hasn't; Terry Butcher and Derek Adams have had a couple of touchline set-to's, and they clearly don't have a cordial relationship.

Will it be a quality, open, attacking game?  I doubt it.  Whilst the first two meetings (a 3-1 Inverness win and the aforementioned cup draw) were great matches, the subsequent three absolutely were not.  The cup replay was played in freezing conditions on a rock-hard pitch, while the other two SPL clashes were tactical battles.  I'm not convinced that you could say Butcher won them, even though ICT took four points out of six from the two games.  The truth is that all five games were incredibly close, and I'm certain there is at least one parallel universe in which Ross County are the team unbeaten in this season's derbies, not Caley Thistle.

The pitch in Dingwall will be a significant factor.  Frankly, there is now so much sand on one side of the park that it could be legally re-classified as a beach.  Celtic recently complained that it was impossible to play passing football, whilst even Kilmarnock chose to deploy a direct style when they won at the (now-named) Global Energy stadium last month.  Inverness are undoubtedly better when they have the ball on the deck and can get Andrew Shinnie on it; the talismanic schemer has been largely a non-factor in the derby games this season, despite scoring two goals in them.  When they have to go long, they struggle badly to retain possession.  The narrow pitch and poor surface mean that the impressive speed and width provided by their attacking players will be somewhat negated.

Richie Foran has been hugely important in these games, initially when deployed as a physical presence up front, and then in the more recent game as a destroyer in midfield; the 2-1 win in April at the Caledonian Stadium saw Foran play alongside the huge figures of Owain Tudur Jones and Ross Draper as Butcher used what John Maxwell of County Tactics and Tell Him He's Pele not unreasonably called "a wall" to stop County playing.  That won't be possible this time - both Foran and Draper are suspended for this one.  It's not clear what starting lineup the visitors will go with.

Most fans think Graeme Shinnie will be pushed into midfield from left-back.  Whilst Charlie Taylor has proved an adequate deputy in defence, experimenting with Shinnie in an advanced role has not produced particularly good results.  I can't recall seeing him played in central midfield, though I could imagine him providing plenty of energy but not a real physical presence.  Nick Ross has played in a deeper position before, but he's so frail that a gust of wind would knock him over.  I wonder whether Butcher will try using centre-back Danny Devine in front of the back four alongside Jones.  I did see Devine coming on as a sub to play in midfield against Kilmarnock this season...which backfired as Killie promptly scored.  So maybe not.  But it's a real dilemma that Butcher has to solve if Inverness are going to win this.  And I think he'll want as many big, strong players as possible out there, especially as defensive linchpin Gary Warren is injured. 

(Of course, another option might be to use Shane Sutherland as a more physical attacking player.  But please, no.  Just no)

Derek Adams has his own problems in picking a team, having lost captain Richard Brittain to a knee injury which, thankfully, isn't as bad as it initially looked on BBC Alba last week.  He's already missing another creative midfield player, in Rocco Quinn, which has meant that Martin Scott has been playing recently as the most advanced central midfielder.  In my opinion, Scott has been pretty ineffectual, and his inclusion has also forced the outstanding Iain Vigurs into a wider and less attacking role.  Vigurs has three goals in derbies this season, and is always hugely motivated against his former club; I bet Adams is hugely tempted to move him further forward again, where he has done huge damage against ICT this season. 

Mark Fotheringham will probably be the automatic replacement for Brittain, but frankly isn't quite as good.  If the midfield is indeed set to be a proper battleground, could there be a recall for the combative Stuart Kettlewell at Scott's expense?  With a less sturdy ICT midfield to face this time, Adams will fancy his players can take control of the centre of the pitch, and the game with it.

He certainly doesn't often ask his midfield players to stand on the touchlines. Even with the pace of Ivan Sproule, the Staggies tend to rely heavily on marauding full-backs Mihael Kovacevic and Evangelos Ikonomou to provide width - which they do very well - with Paul Lawson sitting in front of the defence as insurance.  Unlike Inverness, they do have a target man to hit with long balls in Steffen Wohlfarth, though the German is probably not as good at holding up play as the injured Sam Morrow.  Wohlfarth (if it really is pronounced Wolf-Fart, then brilliant, just brilliant) is more mobile though, and looks more of a goal threat.  All day, County will look for Wohlfarth to come deep and leave space for Sproule to fly inside off the right flank and get in behind.

football formations
(How I think the two teams might line up on Sunday)

What do I think will happen?  I think County will win.  If nothing else, they're due some luck in these matches.  And I think Inverness' absentees will weaken them hugely.  It feels like a match-up that favours the home side.  My hope is that Motherwell win in Perth, which means Inverness finish third anyway, and County finish fourth.  Then everyone's a winner, and there'll be one heck of a mutual pitch invasion at the end!

I'm not sure that this particular Highland Derby will go down as an all-time classic.  But for the fans of the two clubs, it's going to be huge.  I'm already getting palpitations.  And it's not even the day of the bloody game...

L.

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