Thursday, July 12, 2012

Where do we go from here?

SPL Chief Executive Neil Doncaster has always been a believer of the maxim 'any publicity is good publicity' - even, to the horror of many, when being asked about the nastier aspects that surround Old Firm matches.

A bright future for Scottish football may depend on him being right about that.  For the events of the last six months have left our national game's reputation in the gutter.  The mismanagement and misdeeds of Rangers FC were an embarrassment and a shock; the way they have been dealt with by the SPL and the SFA has been an absolute farce.  We would be the laughing stock of world football were it not for the fact that our teams are no longer good enough to be of any significance to other countries.

It's depressing to think that next Spring will see the thirtieth anniversary of when an Alex Ferguson-inspired Aberdeen saw off Real Madrid to win the Cup Winners' Cup, and the twentieth anniversary of the season that Rangers, in happier times, fell short of the Champions League final only because of Marseille's cheating and bribery.

Tomorrow's SFL vote, whatever the outcome (at the time of writing, it seemed increasingly likely that the Ibrox side will be forced to work their way back up from third division level) will be a huge step towards the end of this fiasco, I hope...though don't be surprised if newco Rangers runs into brand new difficulties ASAP, and I can't help feeling that, sooner or later, another courtroom will be involved.  But a huge amount of damage has undoubtably been done by this saga, and only time will tell what wounds have been inflicted.  What next?

There seems likely to be a huge financial hit, at least at the top level.  The absence of Rangers from the top flight will hit takings at the gate, with other clubs missing out on a full away support attending once or twice a season.  But of more significance will be the effect on sponsorship and TV.  The underlying message coming from the SPL Chief Executive and his SFA counterpart, Stewart Regan, is that "our product is crap and worthless without having Rangers in it" - why else would they have pushed so hard for special dispensation for them?  It would not be at all surprising if sponsors, plus the likes of SKY and ESPN, took them at their word.

(Interestingly enough, it has been noted by smarter people than me that the SPL's current TV deal is so pitiful that our top flight clubs make considerably less than clubs in Norway and Belgium do from their TV deals as it is - which adds to the growing feeling that the people in charge of Scottish football are incapable of finding their backsides with both hands)

So income will surely drop, at least in the short term.  Whilst the claims of armageddon coming from Doncaster and Regan - who claimed up to six SPL clubs could go bust without Rangers - are almost certainly doommongering and hyperbole, it seems likely that there will be some clubs in significant financial difficulty.  Even before the decision was made not to allow the newco back in the SPL, there was some significant belt-tightening going on.  This of course will lead to a drop in wages, and presumably a decreased quality of player in our league.

That last paragraph appears to be the main concern of Regan, Doncaster and everyone else who wants Rangers back in at as high a level as possible, at whatever cost.

To which I reply...So f*****g what?

Firstly, if your club (I'm looking at you, Kilmarnock) is so dependent on paydays from matches against the Old Firm that it will go to the wall without them, I would suggest that your club's finances are run abysmally.  For a start, it would mean that relegation from the top flight would result in administration even if there are two Old Firm clubs in the SPL.  There's no doubt that many Scottish clubs are not run well and have not been run well for years - the loss of Rangers will be the catalyst for some drastically-overdue prudence.  I know it's easy for me to preach because Inverness are in good shape and in no particular danger, but I would say that any club that goes into administration as a knock-on effect from the Rangers fiasco deserves little sympathy, because they were clearly already on the edge.

As for the lack of quality players, the assumption clearly is that having top players attracts fans and the TV companies.  Whilst we will probably never again see the likes of Brian Laudrup, Paul Gascoigne and Henrik Larsson playing in Scotland whilst at their peaks, it's somewhat galling that current transfer gossip suggests that Celtic are unable even to satisfy the ambitions of the decent, but hardly world-beating, Ki Sung-Yeung.  Celtic and Rangers fans will doubtless be thinking of how their current sides are but a shadow of the Martin O'Neill team that reached the UEFA Cup final in Seville, or Walter Smith's nine-in-a-row side.  The lack of cash, at least in comparison with Europe's big leagues, leaves this current Celtic squad woefully deficient of the quality required to compete in the Champions' League.

But whilst Old Firm fans think in terms of their great European exploits of the past, fans of 'diddy' teams are far more interested in how they compare to the other 'diddy' sides they are up against.  Inverness may have (indeed, already have) to cut the budget, but so has everyone else.  We should be in exactly the same playing field compared to the likes of Motherwell, St Johnstone et al as we were last season.  We don't only watch our team play when we've signed someone who took part at the European Championships - the diehards go along to every match they can afford, and the more fair-weather go along when the team is doing well.  If Inverness reach top six next season (they won't) then attendances will go up, even if, on paper, the squad is so crap that we still have Billy flipping McKay at centre forward.

And as regards the TV spectacle, quality players do not necessarily mean quality matches.  Two good teams can still produce a nil-nil bore draw.  The best Scottish football games I have ever been at have all taken place in the SFL, not the SPL.  If the games are open and entertaining to watch, then people will watch them - even if Billy flipping McKay is playing.

Does that all make sense?  Or is it just one big late-night waffle?

The point I'm trying to make, I think, is that Scottish football will not die, even if Rangers are stuck in third division.  There will be short term pain.  But this summer has at least shown that your average fan cares about his team and the game, and that his support will remain unwavering as long as integrity and hope are not replaced by greed and corruption.  That is the reason why Scottish football will survive, and why, for risking everything in the chase of pound signs, Regan, Doncaster and plenty of other powerbreakers must be thrown out as soon as possible.  Because, if justice wins the day tomorrow, there is still plenty to be positive about, and hopefully we can start to focus on that again.

L.

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