If only Dundee had "remembered" to pay the taxman, so they hadn't had to go into administration. Then they would be top of the first division, instead of stuck in mid-table, weighed down by a 25 point deduction.
Or if only they had appointed Barry Smith as manager last March, instead of Gordon Chisholm, who failed to reverse a collapse which cost the Dens Park side promotion to the SPL last year.
But they didn't. And so, despite being unbeaten for 20 league games, going back to the end of September, with Smith yet to suffer a league defeat since replacing the redundant Chisholm, Dundee are olny sixth in the table. It could be worse, though; the main aim of such a points deduction was to punish the club by making relegation almost inevitable, though not so certain that the fans wouldn't keep pitching off. To their credit, the paper-thin playing squad have stuck up a two-fingered salute to that, and even with nine matches left there is no chance of demotion to the second division.
The moral of this story? Quite simply, the Scottish first division remains as unpredicatable as ever. There are only three certainties: firstly, the side just relegated from the SPL will find it a nightmare to get out of (Inverness were the only team in a decade to return to the top flight at the first go); secondly, teams trying to spend their way to the title will meet a sticky end, even if they do succeed (Livingston, Gretna); and finally, the identity of the title winners will be unclear even as we enter the final weeks of the season.
And so it has been this campaign. Falkirk came down from the SPL and have only sporadically taken advantage of holding on to SPL-quality players like Ryan Flynn and Burton O'Brien. Steven Pressley's side lie third, not quite out of things because of two games in hand, but they lie 11 points off top spot. As mentioned above, it was Dundee who displayed Creative Financial Management this year. And as for the eventual winners, who would have predicted Raith Rovers to lead the way into the final furlongs?
Though Falkirk could still get into the fray with an Inverness-esque conclusion to the season - Caley Thistle won their last ten games last year - the race probably has only two horses, Raith and their Fife rivals Dunfermline. Aside from Falkirk and Dundee, challenges from other sides failed to materialize; financial constraints have hampered Partick and Queen of the South, both of whom face the possibility of part-time football next year. Ross County have dramatically regressed after their run to last year's cup final, and are onto their third coach of the season after Derek Adams left and Willie McStay lasted about as long as a snowball in hell. Jimmy Calderwood will save them from a relegation battle...no question that Stirling and Cowdenbeath will be the bottom two...but it's doubtful whether the tanning salons in Dingwall are good enough to keep him in the Highlands beyond the summer.
The above paragraph has managed to summarize every team in the division apart from Morton - who absolutely nobody expected to finish in the top three and seemed unlikely to be a relegation battle. Their current fifth place is about the only predictable thing that has happened all year.
So, as I said, it's Raith and Dunfermline who are battling it out; the Kirkcaldy side's lead has just been cut to two points after defeat to Partick at the weekend. There are ten matches to go. Raith had a cup run of their own last year, before elimination by Dundee United in the semis, but it's a surprise even to their own fans that they have pushed on like this. All their signings last summer were from lower divisions; their single January arrival was journeyman forward Gary Wales, returned from Australia. Rovers' position, one suspects, is mainly due to the nous of manager John McGlynn.
Raith's setup is at contrast to Dunfermline's; whilst almost no-one is left (bar youth players from the time) from the squad that were relegated from the SPL in 2007, there remains a plethora of top flight experience in the likes of Gary Mason, Martin Hardie and Andy Kirk. The Pars have slowly downsized their budget every year in this league - a failure to go up this time might be the last shot they have for a while.
On paper, it is perhaps the latter side that look stronger - Dunfermline do have more depth to go with the experience. But any predictions about this division should be made at your peril...except the one that says that, if changing to a ten-team SPL after next season means three relegated, expect this year's first division winner to go straight back down.
L.
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