As far as I'm concerned, this is how the SPL teams would rank if they had to play the season with the players they have now - and how the positions compare with when I did this six weeks ago...
1) CELTIC (up one place)
OVERVIEW: Yes, I know, I slagged them off mercilessly last week. But Neil Lennon's team are the bookies' favourites, and Rangers, at the moment, are threadbare. A lot depends on whether his signings - Gary Hooper, Biram Kayal, Daryl Murphy and Efrain Juarez, who have cost a combined 7.7 million quid- have a greater impact than the players Mowbray brought to the club in January.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? Aiden McGeady looks set to leave - and it's for his own good - as do Andreas Hinkel and Cillian Sheridan. This might mean further funds, but the squad remains a bit too big just now.
2) RANGERS (down one place)
OVERVIEW: This is based mainly on the fact that they only have fifteen players over the age of 21 on the Ibrox books. Only time will tell whether Kris Boyd will be as badly missed as his goalscoring record suggests, or whether Kenny Miller and Kyle Lafferty can make up for his absence. Hopefully Andy Webster will produce the form he showed for Dundee United last year.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? Hell yes, though it is worrying there is as much talk of selling (Steven Davis) as buying (Georgie Welcome) in the papers today. As far as I'm concerned, Walter Smith needs another defender, two midfielders and a forward, or he'll be heavily dependent on his youth players when we kick off the campaign.
3) DUNDEE UNITED (up one place)
OVERVIEW: I know they lost Andy Webster, but the rest of the squad remains intact, and is made up of young players who should only get better. This could be a breakout season for David Goodwillie. Peter Houston is a good dependable manager who should get the most out of his team.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? Another centre-back would be nice, unless Houston thinks highly enough of Keith Watson. Clubs are still sniffing around Craig Conway, who would be difficult to replace.
4) HEARTS (down one place)
OVERVIEW: Their attempts to sign Craig Bryson have dragged on for so long it's getting boring. At least interest in Andrew Driver has cooled. And they've got shot of most of the disruptive influences - Michael Stewart, Christian Nade, Jose Goncalves, Laryea Kingston. I'm still sceptical that Jim Jefferies is capable enough to take this side to third - his last couple of years at Killie left a lot to be desired, even if he did have no cash.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? They appear to be lacking a midfield playmaker at the moment, and it's difficult to see who will be an efficient partner for Kevin Kyle. I think they can survive without Bryson if Driver stays.
5) MOTHERWELL (up two places)
OVERVIEW: I'm a sucker for Craig Brown, I really am. Well's youngsters appear to have bought into his philosophy, as their European results show. Darren Randolph appears to be an adequate replacement in goal for John Ruddy. Could this be a big campaign for young forward Jamie Murphy? Motherwell have the advantage of having played competitive matches already, and should hit the ground running.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? It'll only be free transfers if they do sign anyone, and they could still do with a winger and a striker to replace the departed Jim O'Brien and Lukas Jutkiewicz. It's unlikely that anyone else will leave.
6) ST. JOHNSTONE (same)
OVERVIEW: Derek McInnes has spread his net wide this summer - bringing in guys from down south like winger Cleveland Taylor and forwards Scott Dobie, Marcus Haber and Sam Parkin. It certainly gives him options to pick from. Most importantly, Michael Duberry is staying, bringing quality and experience to the back line. On paper at least, they have replaced the likes of Filipe Morais and Kenny Deuchar.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? McInnes needs another goalkeeper - there is talk of Hibs' Mark Brown being brought in to compete with Graeme Smith. Other than that, he could do with getting a few guys out the exit door, not least because he now has seven strikers on the books.
7) HIBERNIAN (down two places)
OVERVIEW: While I rate Craig Brown and Derek McInnes, I have no faith in John Hughes; Hibs won only two of their last eighteen matches last season, and got hammered in Slovenia last week. I wonder whether he might have lost the dressing room, and while signings like Michael Hart seem astute, and no big names have left, I think this team might turn out to be less than the sum of its parts.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? Sol Bamba is attracting interest from down south, and appears to be in his manager's bad books. Considering the outlay in wages on the likes of Derek Riordan, Anthony Stokes and Liam Miller, I have no idea where the funds would come from for further signings.
8) ABERDEEN (up two places)
OVERVIEW: It's really hard to predict how well the Dons will do. McGhee has bet the house on Paul Hartley being a big player for them - it looks like a good signing, but so did Jackie McNamara when he moved to Pittodrie a few years back. He's also relying on Championship and League One castoffs being good enough for the SPL - to be fair, he could be right. But McGhee could be out the door if the side start slowly.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? Another experienced forward might be nice, but there's not a lot of money in the kitty. Stuart Duff might yet be re-signed to provide more experience.
9) HAMILTON (down one place)
OVERVIEW: How much will they miss James McArthur? I'm not a fan of Billy Reid's style, but his team will be difficult to break down and should be good enough to avoid a relegation battle. They will hope former Morton midfielder Jim McAlister and Stirling defender Andy Graham can make the step up like Dougie Imrie did last season.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? If Reid gets any of McArthur's transfer fee to spend, expect him to bring back Mickael Antoine-Curier from Dundee to lead the attack. Joel Thomas, released by Colchester, had a decent loan spell last season at New Douglas Park and might be a cheaper option.
10) INVERNESS (down one place)
OVERVIEW: Like St. Johnstone, they appear to have decent depth; it remains to be seen if the first eleven is good enough to avoid a relegation battle. If one of their Irish forwards (Foran, Hayes or Rooney) can get a decent number of goals, they should be all right, and could yet repeat the Saints' seventh placed finish last season.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? Unlikely. Terry Butcher has signed three defenders in the past week and a half, and no-one seems likely to exit.
11) ST MIRREN (same)
OVERVIEW: I'll be surprised if they don't struggle, since they lost their best players (Dorman, Mehmet) and replaced them with Cowdenbeath players. The two loan signings, full-back Jure Travner and Celtic forward Paul McGowan, look like okay moves though. How well they fare depends mainly on just how good a coach Danny Lennon is.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? More midfield depth would be much appreciated. I'm unclear as to where the goals are going to come from - Michael Higdon and Craig Dargo have been shot-shy for a couple of seasons now.
12) KILMARNOCK (same)
OVERVIEW: Why on earth are they not the bookies' favourites for the drop? They avoided relegation by the skin of their teeth last summer, and since then have moved on thirteen first teamers and signed just one (a Portuguese winger who was let go by CSKA Sofia - not much of a pedigree). They have only sixteen players who have played first team football, and they don't have Kevin Kyle. At the time of writing, they are a shoo-in for the drop.
FURTHER TRANSFER WINDOW ACTIVITY? If Mixu Paatelainen has any funds left, he must use them - his side are deficient in all positions. They may yet have to sell Craig Bryson just so they can bring in three or four guys with the money.
That should do for now. I'll re-evaluate things before opening day in a week and a half.
L.
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