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Saturday, January 23, 2021

Scottish football is (still) at a Covid crossroads

It is ten months since Covid forced Scottish football into lockdown. After all this time we still have no fans at matches, all divisions from League One downwards have been stopped until at least the end of January and the Scottish Cup has been halted. How depressing.


And that is of course because of the even more miserable fact that Covid is still out there. Vaccination will hopefully provide a light at the end of the tunnel. But for Scottish football clubs that light cannot be reached quickly enough, and there is always the underlying fear that it will turn out that the end of said tunnel is on fire.


It is reassuring that so far none of the 42 SPFL clubs have hit the wall, and that none appear to be in imminent danger of doing so. Government grants of £500,000 to each Championship club, £150,000 to each League One club and £100,000 to each League Two club, coupled with the philanthropy of James Anderson, have been a real boon.


Meanwhile Premiership clubs can access a reasonably generous loan scheme from the government. This week Kilmarnock were the first team to confirm they'll be taking up this opportunity, admitting they expect a seven figure loss for this season. That's a huge sum of money for a club of their size and there's no reason to believe other similar-sized top flight clubs - with the exception of Motherwell, who sold David Turnbull to Celtic for megabucks - aren't in the same boat, even despite taking advantage of the furlough scheme during the spring and summer.


But that government support should mean they can weather the storm till the end of the season...as long as the season ends.


The big fear now for Premiership - and other SPFL - clubs has to be that Covid forces things to a halt again. That would mean missing out on several million pounds of TV money from Sky Sports and would therefore reduce the size of the prize money pot drastically. 


And while the top flight has managed (with a few notable exceptions) to keep going since August, the bottom line is that Covid restrictions were a lot more relaxed then than they are now. The halting of the lower divisions seems based on the not unreasonable logic that sending mostly part-time players, who may be exposed to Covid as part of their day jobs, all around the country is not especially wise; in order to continue, Championship clubs have had to start their own testing regimens. At a cost of £18,000 per month, I wonder whether a few of those teams might be quite happy to stop too; instead of paying players to play in front of no fans, they'd be able to go back to furloughing and save money.


One potential consequence of that though would be one which is also staring League One and League Two in the face: not being able to complete this season either. Whilst calling the leagues by points-per-game was pretty acceptable after playing so much of the 2019/20 season, the clubs outside the Premiership are not even halfway into a truncated twenty-seven match 2020/21 campaign. Clyde of League One and Cowdenbeath and Albion Rovers of League Two have only played eight games. Can promotion and relegation be decided if clubs can only play each other twice - or worse, if they can't even manage that? I imagine that scenario gives Ann Budge at Tynecastle sleepless nights.


League One and Two clubs have apparently sent a plan to the SPFL for restarting in the next few weeks. My cynicism is somewhat heightened by the fact that virtually no details of the plan are in the public eye aside from a commitment to testing. Given the cost of the protocols that the bigger clubs follow would surely be prohibitive (and I'm sure the Scottish Government would not look kindly on large chunks of public money being frittered away on tests) I suspect the plan advocates use of the cheaper lateral flow tests...which by any medical standard are a pretty lousy test. I would be surprised if such a scheme garnered support.


For too often it is forgotten that the welfare of football, and of the clubs, is of minor importance compared to that of society in general. For all Neil Doncaster's claims that Scottish football is too important to the economy, it was last estimated to be worth £214m a year (0.12% of GDP) and support 5700 FTE jobs; for comparison, Debenhams employed 11,000 people in Scotland alone before it's recent crisis. It could be argued - and I bet it will be by folk who aren't interested in the sport - that the government have been very generous in their support, especially given much of the value of the game and many of the jobs it supports will be focussed very much on two big Glasgow teams...and I don't mean Partick Thistle and Queen's Park.


So it is quite possible that until restrictions are eased considerably, which may be several months away, that the lower leagues will remain in stasis. Heck, if there is another outbreak at a Premiership or Championship club in the near future, despite all their protocols, one might imagine the pressure to halt those divisions becoming too great.


Ditto if there is another scandal anywhere near the level of Dubaigate. And it did not go unnoticed that in amongst a rant that will rank up there with the Jim MacLean punch and Billy Brown's Bin Places, Dun Hings as one of the most infamous Scottish football interviews of all time, Neil Lennon decided to take aim at St Johnstone and Hamilton Accies, whom he suggested had not provided Covid-friendly facilities for Celtic when they had visited.


Both clubs have strongly denied this - St Johnstone's assertion that they gave Celtic four dressing rooms suggests that Lennon's comments were mostly a combination of whataboutery and vindictiveness - but then Derek McInnes poured a bit more fuel onto this dumpster fire by saying "there are a couple of grounds where the concerns are clear right from the outset and you are a bit nervous about that next Covid test."


This is not helpful to anyone. From a public health viewpoint, if clubs had concerns they should have been raised immediately and not alluded to weeks later when any damage will have been done. For the powers that be, this innuendo just gives politicians more ammunition if they do decide to force a stoppage.


For all Lennon's ravings about a 'political' agenda, I'd say it could be argued that the government have been pretty good to Scottish football during all of this. Now the question is whether our game can be careful enough, clever enough and, I daresay, lucky enough to get out the other end of this frightful era.


Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

A far-too-early attempt at predicting Scotland's Euros squad

It would be absolutely typical if having qualified for Euro 2020, with two games in Glasgow, Scotland weren't allowed to play in front of fans...or worse, that the tournament gets wiped out due to the ongoing pandemic.


Still, here's hoping.


There's still five months to go, but that hasn't stopped me taking a look at the candidates to make the final twenty-three man squad. I've broken it down by position and taken a look at who is already (injury permitting) certain to be in that twenty-three and the other players trying to fight for their place in history.


I actually did something similar last May, mostly as a laugh as I never seriously believed we would pull it off. Players who have disappeared off my radar since then include Charlie Mulgrew (nearly 35 and playing for Fleetwood Town in League One), Stuart Findlay (good but not that good for Kilmarnock since Steve Clarke left), Steven Naismith (34 and on the decline) and Johnny Russell (unable currently to be called up for travel reasons).


So here's where I think things stand right now...


GOALKEEPERS

CERTAINTIES: David Marshall

PROBABLES: Craig Gordon, Jon McLaughlin

MAYBES:

LONG SHOTS: Robby McCrorie, Liam Kelly, Scott Bain, Craig MacGillivray


Marshall is not only Scotland's number one, he'll also never have to buy a drink in this country again after his heroics in Serbia. Whilst the third choice keeper pretty much never plays, it seems unlikely that Clarke will give that slot to a future prospect...even more so given Robby McCrorie can't even get a game at Livingston just now. So Gordon and McLaughlin are very likely to be the other two keepers, with the likes of Bain, Kelly and MacGillivray likely to be the next-man-up if one of the veteran trio gets injured.


FULL-BACKS

CERTAINTIES: Andrew Robertson, Kieran Tierney

PROBABLES: Stephen O'Donnell, Liam Palmer

MAYBES: Greg Taylor

LONG SHOTS: Paul McGinn, Ryan Fredericks, Aaron Hickey


I've listed Tierney here as a full-back even though he is most likely to be used on the left side of a back three. Obviously he would provide backup for Robertson and possibly even on the right side as an emergency. Greg Taylor is a Clarke favourite but he's not getting much gametime at Celtic just now. Hickey, who is playing plenty in Serie A, would probably be just as good an option at left-back if Clarke felt he needed another one in the squad. 


Right-back remains an issue; neither O'Donnell nor Palmer have let Scotland down when called upon but neither can hold a candle to whoever is lining up at left-back. However unless Ryan Fredericks of West Ham changes his mind - apparently he's turned down Clarke before - the duo are our least bad options in the position. McGinn would seem to be the emergency option.


CENTRE-BACKS

CERTAINTIES: Declan Gallagher, Scott McTominay

PROBABLES: Scott McKenna, Liam Cooper

MAYBES: Andrew Considine, Grant Hanley

LONG SHOTS: Paul Hanlon, Ryan Porteous, Steven Caulker


I've put McTominay in this category rather than in midfield as he's likely to stay in the back three for a while yet. Gallagher has excelled in recent international appearances and it's hard to see him getting displaced from the starting XI. If anyone can do so it is probably McKenna, who lost his place in the starting lineup when injured but has done pretty well since moving to England in the Autumn. Cooper and Considine both offer left-footed options; the latter has done better in an international shirt but the former has greater pedigree at club level.


Hanley has come back into the reckoning with some fine performances for Norwich this season. Whilst Porteous is clearly one for the future, it's hard to see the 21 year old or his veteran Hibs teammate Hanlon leapfrogging enough names to make the final squad.


Thrown in here as a wild card option is Caulker, who has turned his career around in Turkey and has made no secret of his wish to represent Scotland.


MIDFIELDERS

CERTAINTIES: John McGinn, Callum MacGregor, Ryan Jack

PROBABLES: Kenny McLean

MAYBES: John Fleck

LONG SHOTS: Billy Gilmour, David Turnbull, Ross McCrorie


The Jack-McGinn-McGregor trio offers excellent balance in midfield and with McTominay needed in defence it's hard to see anyone breaking them up. McLean has done well in the anchor role in the past though and came off the bench against Israel and Serbia.


Fleck seems like a like-for-like backup for MacGregor but he has had a tough season so far at club level and that could leave him on the edge, especially if Turnbull continues his fine recent form. It feels like Gilmour is on the verge of becoming a regular at Chelsea; if he does so in the next few months he'll be impossible to ignore. McCrorie was called up for the last international but he is probably the longest of long shots. 


ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS/WINGERS

CERTAINTIES: Stuart Armstrong, Ryan Christie, Ryan Fraser

PROBABLES: James Forrest

MAYBES:

LONG SHOTS: Ryan Gauld, Mikey Johnston


If Forrest gets back to full fitness he'll surely be in the squad, but he hasn't played since September. A relative dearth of wingers means that Johnston, who is possibly even more injury-prone than Forrest, could be a surprise beneficiary if his Celtic teammate is injured.


Meanwhile there's no way Armstrong, Christie and Fraser won't be named...unless Fraser gets hurt again. The latter two would compete for the second striker role. Armstrong is unfortunate that Clarke's formation doesn't really suit him, but his versatility is enormously helpful and he's just playing too well to leave out.


(edit - added in Ryan Gauld after he was flagged up by a Twitter follower. Four goals and four assists so far this season in the Portuguese top flight is not too shabby at all)


FORWARDS

CERTAINTIES: Lyndon Dykes

PROBABLES: Oli McBurnie, Leigh Griffiths

MAYBES: Oli Burke, Lawrence Shankland, Callum Paterson

LONG SHOTS: Che Adams, Kevin Nisbet, Steven Fletcher


Dykes just fits the system so well that it's hard to believe anyone can displace him from the lineup. The best bet would be Griffiths, if the Celtic striker can return to the form of three years ago. McBurnie continues to be a divisive figure to say the least but he has all the tools; it's just that he hasn't done it for Scotland (yet, I hope). Given the other options he's still a good bet to be a backup.


Paterson is intriguing because of his ability to play at right-back and in midfield which in an international tournament may prove useful. Shankland has the advantage of having his foot through the door but Nisbet's better goalscoring record this season can't be ignored. Burke offers something of an X-factor but his lack of end product remains infuriating.


Fletcher has never quite closed the door on his international career and while the veteran has been wary of adding to the wear-and-tear on his body, the chance to play in the Euros might be too juicy to ignore. Adams has so far declined Scotland's overtures, but he might be tempted to change his mind for the same reason.



Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.