2020/21 Scottish Championship preview

 I did kinda already look at the Championship sides a month ago.

What's changed? Not a lot.

Hearts should stroll this. Even if their entire starting XI were ruled out with Covid the next eleven players up would still be stronger than everyone else. There has been a worrying hint of the same trait that dogged Robbie Neilson's Dundee United team last season - doing just enough to win and not a lot else, rather than blowing away opponents - but if that's the most negative thing I can come up with then you can tell they must be good. Craig Gordon at the back, Stephen Kingsley, Craig Halkett and Michael Smith in the defence, Peter Haring and Jamie Walker in the midfield, Liam Boyce up front; no-one else should even be in the same postcode by May.

Simply going by budget, Dundee should be the best of the rest. Too often last season they looked limited by the tactics (or lack of) used by rookie manager James McPake. Either he has to improve, or new signings like marquee man Charlie Adam and the 150,000 (give or take a few) forwards they've brought in need to overcome his deficiencies. I got slaughtered on Twitter for claiming that the club had no obvious recruitment plan, but the fact remains that a team intent on playing a back three has only three centre-backs on the books, and whilst Adam, Graham Dorrans and Paul McGowan will make pretty passing patterns when they have the ball, who is going to do the running?

As for the rest, I think it's anyone's guess. Inverness Caledonian Thistle were second when play stopped in March but they've lost lots of first choice players and now have a completely different back four from the one that they could deploy as recently as December. Players like Robbie Deas and Wallace Duffy are the sort of talented youngster and reclamation projects respectively that have done well under John Robertson in recent years, but for a team whose defence was a strength in recent years they don't half look vulnerable there now. At the other end it's not clear who will get the goals, or even who will start up top: Nikolay Todorov as the replacement for fellow target-man Jordan White, or pacey Miles Storey in a complete change of style? They'll hope on loan Rangers winger Kai Kennedy can be a wild card. This team could finish top three again, but there could also be a 'Peter Houston at Falkirk' sort of collapse.

If ICT are weakened, so you could argue that most of the other full-time clubs are in the same situation. Dunfermline Athletic's new German investors haven't found them any players from the continent yet, but their finance is probably why things look a lot better than when they butchered the playing staff in May. Kevin Nisbet will be irreplaceable but Stevie Crawford has done his best to plug the gap with Ross County's Declan McManus and Kevin O'Hara who was super for Alloa last year. Tying up winger Dom Thomas on a permanent deal was a great move too. All in all, they've probably managed to come up with a squad close to the level of last year's, which is no mean feat in the circumstances.

Ayr United's strategy has been to try and amass as much talent in their starting eleven at the possible expense of depth, So whilst newbies such as Patrick Reading and Jack Baird in defence, Joe Chalmers and Michael Miller in midfield, Tom Walsh and Dario Zanatta out wide and Bruce Anderson up front look like terrific signings there isn't a huge amount on the bench especially now Craig Moore is out long term.  If everyone else stays fit I think they could do really well; if the injury bug bites they could be in a hell of a lot of trouble.

Greenock Morton are very bullish about manager David Hopkin's ability to build a team, and they will need him to live up to that billing. They lost their most dangerous creator, Nicky Cadden, and too many players - Aiden Nesbitt, Robbie Muirhead, Craig McGuffie and Gary Oliver spring to mind - have yet to live up to their potential. This could however be the perfect place for loanee Josh McPake to kick on and watch out for left-back Lewis Strapp developing into one of this division's best players this season.

If I was to pick a dark horse though it would be Raith Rovers. Newly promoted sides tend to have few problems making the step up and it's not long since Livingston managed back-to-back promotions. The additions that John McGlynn has made have been astute and focussed at the side's weaknesses. Manny Duku already looks impressive up front and if Lewis Vaughan can stay fit they should be really dangerous up top. Regan Hendry should establish himself as one of this level's pre-eminent midfield players and having the experienced Jamie MacDonald between the sticks will do them no harm too. I certainly don't see them in a relegation battle.

Queen of the South, in contrast...their early League Cup results were far better than I anticipated but the fact remains that but a handful of players remain from last season, Stephen Dobbie will be 38 in December and they really will rely on Wullie Gibson, who is 36 and hasn't played at this level for five years, to contribute. On the positive side Joe McKee deserves one more crack at full-time footie and Aidan Fitzpatrick is an exciting loan signing from Norwich. But QOS were on the slide back in March and will need yet more Dobbie miracles to avoid a dogfight at the bottom.

I've left the part-timers to last for good reason, and that's not because I think they'll be bottom. Arbroath in particular are an intriguing prospect. Dick Campbell has kept together his solid backbone and once more augmented it with loan players - what on earth is Miko Virtanen doing playing at this level for another season? If one of their strikers can score regularly - probably either Luke Donnelly or Michael Ruth - then they could spring many a surprise.

As for Alloa Athletic, I'm tired of getting slagged off by @AlloaStats at the end of every season for having predicted they'll go down. The news that Iain Flannigan had retired might have tempted me to do so again - hey, even a stopped clock is right twice a day - but incredibly they managed to replace him with Stefan Scougall. If Edin Lynch can fill the CB slot vacated by Robbie Deas, they'll do fine.

So here's my inevitably wrong predicted table:

1. HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN

2. DUNDEE

3. AYR UNITED

4. RAITH ROVERS

5. DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC

6. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE

7. ARBROATH

8. GREENOCK MORTON

9. ALLOA ATHLETIC

10. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

Feel free to bookmark this to use against me in May (I'm sure @AlloaStats will...)

Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

2020/21 Scottish League One preview

 To be blunt, League One should be a two horse race.

That's not being harsh on the other eight clubs; there are plenty of dangerous teams and quality players elsewhere in this division. But Falkirk and Partick Thistle have so much more to throw at this league than any of the others. As Ray McKinnon discovered at the former last season, struggling to make the top two is not an option.

David McCracken and Lee Miller have been the Bairns' co-management team since November 2019 and were unbeaten in the league between then and lockdown. That record surely won't last, but given they've been able to sign Blair Alston - Blair Alston! - Aidan Keena, Callumn Morrison and Scott Mercer to play in League One they have every right to fancy their chances.

The problem for them is that like last year with Raith Rovers, they aren't the only big fish in this pond. Ian McCall has won at this level before with Ayr United and will feel he can repeat that feat with a Thistle squad that retained impressive strikers Zak Rudden and Brian Graham and quality midfielders Stuart Bannigan, Shea Gordon and Joe Cardle. A defence containing Thomas O'Ware, Darren Brownlie and newbie Ciaran McKenna should be solid enough and the arrival of Salim Kouider-Aissa and Blair Spittal on loan means depth shouldn't be a problem.

Airdrie are the other full-time(ish) club which should mean they are the best bet for third spot. Griffin Sabatini (an Argentinian loaned from a Ukrainian club, as you do) and Thomas Robert (son of Laurent) are surely the most curious signings in the SPFL this summer but they have held onto most of the squad that had got into the playoff places last season. Manager Ian Murray has plenty of quality up front with Calum Gallagher, Dale Carrick, Ally Roy, Eoghan Stokes and Kyle Connell so how far they can go will depend on how well they defend.

Montrose again did an amazing job of punching above their weight last season - apparently the reason that esteemed boss Stewart Petrie hasn't gone on to better things is that he has a plush day job - and have performed the remarkable feat of not losing a  single senior player from last season (other than loanees going back to parent clubs). The return of Blair Lyons to Partick is somewhat offset by the homecoming of Martin Rennie, and this experienced, well-coached and well-drilled bunch will again look to put 'bigger' clubs to shame.

Further north, Cove Rangers are not simply aiming to make up the numbers in the third tier after two consecutive promotions. Paul Hartley's side are ambitious, signing Motherwell duo Adam Livingstone and Jamie Semple (on loan) and bringing Leighton McIntosh back to Scotland. Of course, Fraser Fyvie, Mitch Megginson and Rory McAllister are still here too. It would surprise few people if they ended up closer to the top than the bottom.

East Fife have finished between fifth and seventh in four straight seasons but it seems like Darren Young's job is getting harder every year. Highly-rated striker Anton Dowds has moved onto full-time football but that may be offset by the loan signing of Livingston's Jack Hamilton. Veteran Danny Swanson should have enough nous to shine in the third tier and joins an already experienced bunch that includes Chris Higgins and Stewart Murdoch at the back and blogger extraordinaire Danny Denholm on the wing.

In contrast Clyde clearly aim to push on in their second season back in League One. Bringing back defender Tom Lang and midfielder Ross Cunningham permanently looks like a coup for a team that will always be dangerous as long as David Goodwillie is up front. He scored twenty league goals last season but no-one else managed more than two. Whilst there has been a lack of attacking reinforcements, Lang, Jamie Bain and Matthew Shiels should strengthen the backline.

It was a tumultous offseason at Dumbarton, where Jim Duffy had a heart attack in June (he has thankfully recovered) and budget decisions were put off longer than most. That meant the exit of regulars like Joe McKee and Kyle Hutton, but they still have Ross Forbes pulling the strings and he now has Denny Johnstone leading the line in front of him. Getting Sam Wardrop back permanently at right-back was a boost and young Hearts defender Chris Hamilton could do very well on loan.

Arguably Peterhead had the trickiest summer of the lot; a club that in the past offered better part-time wages than most found themselves being gazumped somewhat by others; a number of players left for League Two or ambitious Lowland League sides instead. Evergreen centre-back Gary McKenzie and forward Isaac Layne are the names that stand out amongst the new boys, while they have taken a chance on futsal star Derryn Kesson and will need big contributions from young loan players from the Dundee clubs.

And finally Forfar Athletic have been super busy in the last few months as Stuart Malcolm looks to put his stamp on a squad he inherited in November. The pick of the twelve new signings are midfielder Mark Hill, ex-St Johnstone skipper Steven Anderson and attacking trio Jordan Allan, Archie Thomas and Scott Shepherd who step up from League Two. Malcolm will hope that he can prove his success in charge of East Kilbride was no fluke.

So here's my (inevitably wrong) prediction of how the table will finish:

1. PARTICK THISTLE

2. FALKIRK

3. AIRDRIE

4. COVE RANGERS

5. MONTROSE

6. CLYDE

7. FORFAR ATHLETIC

8. DUMBARTON

9. EAST FIFE

10. PETERHEAD

Make sure you take a screenshot so you can remind me of this in May...

Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

2020/21 Scottish League Two preview

It's no secret that the Covid pandemic has hit football clubs hard. With fans unable to attend games, income is down and chairmen are having to be very frugal indeed.

Except at Queen's Park.

Having decided that they could no longer continue as amateurs, they have decided that, if they're going to have to pay players, then they're going to pay them. So the squad is filled with folk who were playing full-time last season, some of whom - Bob McHugh and Lee Kilday, for example - were regulars in the Championship. Most remarkably they've signed Simon Murray, the former Dundee United and Hibs forward who returns from two years in South Africa. Anything other than the title for the Spiders and manager Ray McKinnon would be a catastrophe.

Their closest rivals are most likely to be forever-bridesmaids Edinburgh City, who were promotion challengers in each of the last two seasons and have kept together a squad that includes prolific striker Blair Henderson, fellow attackers Danny Handling and Alex Harris and seasoned defender Conrad Balatoni. Wideman Danny Jardine looks like a good signing from Stirling too. Expect them to be up there but they may yet again lose out to a side with even more megabucks than they do (Cove last year, Peterhead the year before).

After that duo, it's hard to say who might be the third-best side in this division; however one would assume that as the side who have dropped down from League One, Stranraer will have aspirations of at least making the promotion playoffs. They stood behind boss Stevie Farrell despite relegation and shouldn't be short of goals with Joao Victoria and veteran Darryl Duffy up top and Andy Stirling providing ammunition. Certainly they should not emulate previous relegated clubs such as Cowdenbeath, Albion Rovers and Brechin by slumping straight to the bottom end of this tier too.

Elgin City were third in the table when the action was halted in the Spring, and their manager Gavin Price has concentrated on keeping together as much of that squad as possible. But they lost star striker Shane Sutherland and winger Rabin Omar to Championship sides and have been remarkably quiet on the signings front so far. It will be hard for them to emulate last season's success, even though Conor O'Keefe, Kane Hester and Smart Osadolor provide plenty of quality.

Cowdenbeath, who were fourth when play stopped, have also chosen to mostly stick rather than twist, but will miss the departed Jordan Allan and Archie Thomas. Like any Gary Bollan side they will be tough to break down - not least with the legendary Craig Mango Barr in the backline - but goals may prove tough to come by unless loan striker Olly Hamilton proves an astute signing.

Amongst those with genuine promotion playoff aspirations are Stirling Albion, who stood by manager Kevin Rutkiewicz after a poor start to last season and whose 2020 form was pretty decent. They've backed their boss well with striker Andy Ryan joining from Dunfermline and midfielder Jack Leitch from Peterhead. Certainly the club will be expecting an improvement on last season's sixth spot.

Stenhousemuir, who had a rough first half of 2019/20 but seemed to have finally turned the corner just before lockdown, look intriguing. Manager Davie Irons has been well backed and has essentially revamped the squad since his arrival early last season. Defender Creag Little and midfielder Callum Tapping look the pick of the bunch that have pitched up this summer, joining a squad that contains former Falkirk and Swansea City prospects Ryan Blair and Botti Biabi and seasoned strikers Mark McGuigan and Greig Spence.

It seems like every season Annan Athletic lose most of their best players to other clubs, yet Peter Murphy still finds a way of putting out a competitive team. Can he do the same this year? Getting forward Aidan Smith back after a year away at Peterhead will give them a boost, while Jack Purdue and Aaron Splaine could improve their midfield. But it could be tough to keep those standards up.

There was also considerable turnover at Albion Rovers, including in the dugout where Brian Reid has replaced Kevin Harper. Reid has a young squad aside from Paul Cairney, who has come out of retirement, and relying on youths such as Finn Ecrepont and Scott Glover at the back feels like a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Midfielder Callum Wilson was highly-rated a few years ago at Partick and has the chance to jumpstart his career.

And lastly, Brechin City got to avoid an inevitable relegation playoff after the last campaign ended early. Can they avoid such a fate this time around? Two heavy League Cup beatings - albeit to top flight opponents - suggest that manager Mark Wilson still has his work cut out, even though new signings such as Rory Currie, Michael Paton and Connor Coupe should do very well at this level. At the time of writing Wilson has won 3 out of 26 matches in charge of Brechin and unless something changes there those iconic hedges may drop out of the SPFL.

So my (inevitably wrong) prediction for how the season will finish:

1. QUEEN'S PARK

2. EDINBURGH CITY

3. STENHOUSEMUIR

4. STRANRAER

5. STIRLING ALBION

6. ELGIN CITY

7. COWDENBEATH

8. ALBION ROVERS

9. ANNAN ATHLETIC

10. BRECHIN CITY

Feel free to bookmark this to point out my mistakes come May...

Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.